The Saber's Edge: Projecting Power for 2015

With the season nearing its close, I am going to examine some possible power plays for next season. This look will attempt to find players who may exceed expectations and be next season's Lucas Duda, as well as those who may struggle mightily and fall far short of their expectations like Chris Davis. I will try to filter out as much of the noise to find a true talent level. Additionally, I will stay away from the players who consistently perform as expected, and concentrate on players with smaller or erratic resumes.

To find the players, I just went searching the leaderboards for interesting hitters. I looked at several stats including HR/FB%, FB%, HR&FB distance, ISO and of course, home runs. Additionally, I like to divide the player's season into different time frames to find out if the hitter made an adjustment, or to see if there was a production change during a period where he was injured. I used the outline to evaluate each player I wrote about in a recent article.

While, I will not go through each step in this article, I will offer the evidence of why I think the hitter will or will not display power in the future. If there are players I do not cover in the article that you are interested in, let me know in the comments below.

Javier Baez - He has an insane amount of natural power. His 22.5% HR/FB% ranks sixth in the league for the second half. He does not have enough batted balls for his HR&FB distance to make the leaderboard, but it stands at 306 ft, which puts him almost tied with Giancarlo Stanton for fifth place. Whenever he hits a ball, it goes a long ways. The problem right now is the whole contact thing.

He is striking out over 40% of the time in the majors, which is in line with his minor league performance. With two out of every five plate appearances ending in a strikeout, he is not going to hit many home runs. Let me put it into perspective how much his strikeout rate (along with his BABIP) can affect his performance.

Baselines for values used (Baez's 2014 values)

HR/FB%: 22.5% (28.5% is league leading HR/FB% - Abreu)
FB%: 44% (League leading FB% - Carter)
K%: 42%
BB%: 6%
BABIP: .229

Conditions (assuming Baez's numbers from above unless otherwise stated): Projected HR per 600 PA, Batting average

Baez's 2014 stats so far projected over a whole season: 31 HRs, .169 AVG

Drop K% to 35% and a .250 BABIP: 35 HRs, .204 AVG
Drop K% to 30% and a .275 BABIP: 38 HRs, .236 AVG
Drop K% to 25% and a .300 BABIP: 41 HRs, .271 AVG

OK, those are some baselines. For next season, I see him making some improvement in his plate discipline and the BABIP should stay low. Here is my 2015 guesstimate for now (600 PA):

Drop K% to 35% and a .260 BABIP: 35HR, .209 AVG

Thirty-five home runs is useful no matter what, but especially valuable at shortstop. The near .200 AVG will be a problem to deal with and a team with him on it will need to pick up a ton of average or punt the category.

Jonathan Singleton - He is in the same boat as Baez with an insane amount of strikeouts (36%) and low BABIP (.241). Singleton does not have the power potential of Baez with only a 16% HR/FB% and 296 ft. HR&FB distance. However, with Singleton, an owner unfortunately gets the lower AVG and not as many home runs.

Lucas Duda - This season, he is hitting as he always did in the past, just with more plate appearances. Small improvements in a couple of stats (better K% and HR/FB%) have made him look better, but he did not implement any large-scale changes. I do not see the 28-year-old improving at his current age. All of Duda's power is from hitting right-handed pitchers.

Stat (career): vsLHP , vsRHP

HR/600 PA: 6.1, 32.3
ISO: .098, .224
HR/FB%: 7.7%, 14.7%

Duda has put up some elite numbers against right-handed hitters. I may pair him up with some like Garrett Jones and make a cheap two-headed platoon monster at first base.

Oswaldo Arcia - The one item I do not want to see next to Arcia's name in preseason previews is SLEEPER because his value may then double. He missed the first month of the season with an inflamed wrist and struggled initially upon coming back. In only 180 PA in the second half, he has rebounded and hit 13 homers, a 24% HR/FB% and .301 ISO. He cannot keep those numbers up, especially the ISO, but hitting 30 home runs with a .240 average next season is not out of the range of possibility. The two keys in my opinion for him to keep up the production next season are staying healthy, and making sure the 30% K% doesn't creep up any more.

Nolan Arenado - Surprisingly, he has hit 12 home runs in the second half that would tie him with the likes of David Ortiz and Mike Trout. The 23-year-old is showing an unexpected increase in power from last season.

Stat: 2013 (514 PA), 2014 (467 PA)

HR: 10, 18
HR/FB%: 7%, 11%
ISO: .138, .213
HR&FB Distance: 280 ft., 289 ft.

Additionally in the first half 2014, he missed about a month and half with a broken finger. When he came back in July, he had his worst month hitting .244/.277/.444. I like his chances of keeping the power improvements and maybe he can continue to grow. Perhaps a season total in the high 20s or over 30 home runs is not out of the possibility if he can stay healthy.

Luis Valbuena - He has hit a respectable 11 home runs in the second half and 16 on the season. I just cannot envision the 28-year-old keeping up the numbers next season. First, I do not trust career seasons at age 28. His BABIP is nearly a career high and he is only batting .245. His HR/FB (9.9% and 9.8%) and HR&FB distance (277 ft. to 281 ft.) are about the same as 2013. Second, the Cubs will likely bring up Kris Bryant or one of their 87 shortstop prospects to play third base next season and force Valbuena to the bench. For his fantasy value to be maximized next season, the Cubs will need to trade him.

Drew Stubbs - Stubbs caught my eye for having the second highest HR&FB distance this season at 315 feet. He put up a similar value in 2010 at 308 ft., but it has been down the last few season (285 ft., 284 ft., 277 ft.). He was an afterthought going into this season.

I did not know how surprisingly good of a season Stubbs was producing (14 HR, 19 SB, and .288 AVG). In the past, he has had some pop and speed, but a low .200 AVG. This season his AVG stands at .288 support by a career high .397 BABIP. Looking forward, I do not see any reason he can repeat this season. A 30-year-old is not going to start stealing more bases or hit for more power. He really has nowhere to go in the power department, but down. He is not going to continue hitting the ball further than Stanton does. Sell high if anyone will buy, but that seems like a difficult endeavor.

J.D. Martinez - The ex-Astro set the world on fire in the first half by slugging .654 with 13 home runs (205 PA.) He has calmed down quite a bit in the second half (.495 SLG, 10 HR in 233 PA), but is still hitting decent, and his overall numbers are not bad for a player who started in Triple-A this season. He has seen his HR&FB distance jump from 291 ft. to 301 ft. At the same time, his HR/FB% more than doubled from 9.5% to 21.3%. Looking at his Home Run placements, he is not just pulling the ball, but hitting it to all fields. The power spike seems somewhat legitimate. For next season, I could see people label him as a possible bust and he probably will not repeat his 2014 season, but he could still be decent. Do not pay for the 2014 season, but value him correctly and pay accordingly.