Top MLB Betting Picks for July 26: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -0.75 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 94-100-1 (-9.24 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Saturday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Orioles -260 vs Rockies, Twins -225 vs Nationals, Tigers -195 vs Blue Jays
Road Favorites - Cubs -185 at White Sox
Totals - Tigers/Blue Jays 7.0-7.5
Line Movement - Blue Jays -18, Cubs -15
Bullpen Rankings as of 7.25.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Marlins, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Twins, Braves, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Rockies, Orioles, Royals, Yankees, Reds, Nationals, Dodgers, Dbacks, Mets). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Insights
Andrew Abbott has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, yet he still gets underpriced. The Reds and Rays are roughly even, but the Reds are playing better baseball right now. Ryan Pepiot has been much better on the road because of the ballpark the Rays are playing in at home this season.
The Rays are 3-7 last 10 and 6-14 last 20, while the Reds are 6-4 last 10. The Rays are dead last on the road against left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 59.
TRENDS
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games against Tampa Bay.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home.
MLB Best Bets: Reds ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -118); Rays/Reds UNDER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (Bet365 +100)
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New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Best Bets and Predictions
The best pitching matchup on the slate in a great pitcher's park has us looking at the UNDER for the full game. David Peterson faces off with Robbie Ray. Peterson has a 2.49 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last 7 starts. I will give Ray a pass on his last start which was in Toronto against the red hot Blue Jays. Prior to that start, he had a 2.36 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
The Mets have gone UNDER in 7 out of their last 11 games and 4 out of 5 on the road. The Giants are 4-2 to the UNDER in their last 6 home games. Both starting pitchers and bullpen's are solid and should be able to limit scoring.
MLB Best Bets: Mets/Giants UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -105)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
The Dbacks have crushed left-handed pitching on the road all season with a wRC+ of 110. Meanwhile Andrew Heaney has gotten bombed in 6 out of his last 7 starts. Heaney has pitched more than 4 innings just once since June 19th and allowed at least 3 runs or more in each of those 6 starts.
Let's lean on the Dbacks team total to go over in this spot.
MLB Best Bets: Dbacks OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Picks Saturday Recap
- Reds ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- Rays/Reds UNDER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (Bet365 +100)
- Mets/Giants UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -105)
- Dbacks OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
