Previous: 2-2, -.61 RWBucks
Overall: 105-84-1, +3.97 RWBucks
Short and sweet Thursday as we have a five-game evening slate, but I have found a game that I really like with multiple opportunities to cash.
Indians at Royals, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Triston McKenzie vs. Mike Minor
McKenzie has really started to figure it out over his last eight starts, and especially his last four. His only bad outings have been at the White Sox and at the Astros, which is understandable. In his last eight starts he has a 3.49 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 48 strikeouts to just four walks in 49 innings. The start of his run began on July 9 against the Royals, who he faces Thursday. He went seven innings, striking out nine, walking only one and allowing just one hit in that start against Kansas City.
The Royals have struggled on offense in the last 30 days and rank near the bottom in walk rate, strikeout rate, batting average, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I love the value on McKenzie getting plus money on a very reasonable prop number.
I also love the Indians overall in this spot as a road dog with a lower total (8). The Indians are 11-6 in their last 17 games, hitting .270 with a 21 percent strikeout rate and a 9.7 percent walk rate. They are averaging 5.8 runs per game in that stretch. They have gone over 3.5 runs in 12 of 17 games.
Mike Minor has not pitched well in the last 30 and 60 days. He has a 6.46 ERA since June 25 with just 7.3 K/9. He got bombed against the Indians on July 10 for six runs in four innings.
BET: McKenzie over 5.5 strikeouts (+120) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Indians +105 for 1 RWBuck
BET: Indians over 3.5 runs (-115) for 1 RWBuck
