This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last season, I was fortunate enough to take over the "Dominate Your Duel" article series in June, wherein I discussed general strategies for showing profit in large DFS tournaments. The first article I wrote, which can be found here, focused on just how much sway a home plate umpire can hold over the outcome of our contests, as an umpire with a wide strike zone can lead to higher scoring affairs, while an official with a tight zone may give us a better chance for a pitcher's duel.
After receiving requests to make umpire recommendations a standard part of daily advice, the decision was made to create this article series, which will let the reader know what should be considered when attempting to incorporate umps into lineup building. I will also list a few specific players from the games in question that I believe would make good targets.
Umpire statistics can be found on this page, while umpire rotations are listed after the first game of a given series. These rotations can be found in various locations, but I find it easiest to simply check the box scores on ESPN.com after the start of the initial contest. Umpire shifts run clockwise, meaning the guy who was at first base in the previous contest is slated to get behind the plate the following day. Rotations aren't released for the first game of a slate until very close to the start of game time, which can make it difficult to get the names of umpires on the day a new series begins, but I will be checking in twice a week to try and provide you with the most information possible.
The three major categories I look at when deciding on an umpire for daily games are strikeouts, walks and ERA, as I feel these are the best indicators of the type of game we can expect from a certain umpire. This week, we have series running through Thursday, meaning there will be plenty of umps to choose from. For the first few turns, we will focus on last year's numbers, and gradually begin to shift when more data comes in. We can make this move more quickly if 2015 stats begin to reflect previous numbers. Sound good? Let's go.
Tuesday
Game: BAL@TB
Umpire: Ed Hickox
Player recommendation: Nathan Karns, RHP
The first thing to note here is that our umpire, Ed Hickox, had the lowest ERA (2.94) of any umpire who saw at least 500 innings last season, while keeping a low walk rate (2.9/9) and a decent strikeout rate (7.6/9). Limiting free passes will be important for Karns, as he logged a career 3.8/9 walk rate in the minor leagues, while showing big whiff potential (10.3 K/9). Karns will likely be at or among the cheapest pitchers on the docket Tuesday, which makes him an intriguing option in the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field.
Umpire: Eric Cooper
Game: SF@ARI
Player recommendation: Brandon Belt, 1B
At first glance, our umpire selection here may not seem ideal, as his strikeout and walk rates are fairly solid. However, his 4.20 ERA last year put him in the bottom-20 in that category. Our opposing pitcher, Rubby De La Rosa, logged a 4.45 xFIP against left-handed hitting in 2014, making Belt and his 240 ISO against righties appealing, especially at Chase Field.
Wednesday
Game: MIN@DET
Umpire: Kerwin Danley
Player recommendation: Anibal Sanchez, RHP
Danley's 2.74 ERA last season ranked third-lowest overall in 2014, and best among any umpire who was behind the plate for at least 20 games, while his 2.2 BB/9 was the lowest regardless of innings seen. The walk rate seems like a perfect fit for Sanchez, who allowed just 30 free passes in 126 innings last year.
Game: BOS@PHI
Umpire: Phil Cuzzi
Player Recommendation: David Ortiz, DH/1B
As if Aaron Harang and his 4.40 xFIP against lefties last season aren't going to have a tough enough time in Citizens Bank Park, his first assignment will be overseen by an umpire who logged a 4.15 ERA and 3.0 BB/9 in 526.7 innings last year. The combination could turn the new home park into a shooting gallery for a guy like Ortiz, who notched a 248 ISO against righties last season.
Thursday
Game: CHW@KC
Umpire: Bob Davidson
Player Recommendation: Edinson Volquez, RHP
Volquez's strikeout rate was his lowest since 2006 last season, but that could be aided if Davidson stays close to the 8.0 K/9 he called last year. Even if he isn't racking up the punchouts, Volquez's penchant for throwing ground balls should jibe well with Balking Bob's 3.04 ERA in 591.7 innings seen.
Game: TOR@NYY
Umpire Jerry Meals
Player Recommendation: Russell Martin, C
Neither man on the bump Thursday threw the ball in the major leagues much in 2014, but I am specifically targeting Martin against CC Sabathia because of the home run problems against righties in the past two seasons, coupled with Meals' 4.53 ERA in games worked last season, which was sixth-highest among all umpires.
As you can see from the choices above, I've tried to incorporate as many proven strategies as possible into our decision making, with the umpire component just one part of putting together a successful lineup. I will be back with another column Friday to take you through the weekend slate, at which point we will review these picks. Until then, I encourage readers to give whatever feedback they think necessary as this article series takes off on its maiden voyage.
