There are no early games today, but there’s a nice 10-game slate scheduled to begin at 7:05 PM EST. There’s a Coors game, but the presence of Jacob deGrom kind of cancels out using any Rockies with confidence, and the two big pitching studs for the night are Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole. Until official starting lineups come out there seem to be a limited number of options to punt with, as even the good values seem to be priced around the $3,000 mark.
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Trevor Bauer, CLE vs CWS ($11,200): Bauer has overtaken Gerrit Cole in terms of price and is the most expensive pitcher on the slate by $200. The reasoning is very simple – Bauer has been the better pitcher over his last 10 starts, scoring lower than 40 fantasy points only once. After a hot start Cole has cooled off a tad, scoring less than 40 fantasy points twice in his last six starts. On paper, the matchup for Bauer is better as well, as the White Sox have a lower wOBA (.308) and a higher strikeout rate (24.8 percent) than the Rays do against right-handed pitching.
GPP Fade: Kenta Maeda, LAD at CHC ($8,300): Maeda was cruising along before hitting the DL, and this will only be his second start since returning. He usually doesn’t pitch deep into games and could still be on a pitch count, limiting his upside if he can't secure the quality start bonus. The Cubs (20.7 percent) don’t strike out a lot at home and their .757 OPS is seventh best in the league.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Andrew Suarez, SF vs MIA ($6,600): Not surprisingly, Suarez has been a better pitcher at home this season, giving up a .268 wOBA with a 3.55 ERA (.379 wOBA/6.18 ERA on the road). Miami has been the second-worst team in terms of wOBA this season against left-handed pitching (.291), although their strikeout rate is around league average. Suarez strikes out a respectable 23.4 percent of the batters he faces at home and his 2.1 percent walk rate is an elite number.
Nick Hundley, SF vs MIA ($2,400): Hundley quietly has been one of the better lefty mashers in the league, with wOBA's of .408, .376 and .384 over his last three seasons. He hit in the cleanup spot yesterday and rewarded the Giants with a home run off lefty Caleb Ferguson. Tonight he gets another southpaw Caleb in Caleb Smith, whose road 4.41 ERA is over a run higher than it is at home (3.13).
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM at COL ($3,300): Cabrera’s presence in Coors gives him the auto-boost over $3,000 after being below that price for the last few games. He’s crushed left-handed pitching since joining the Mets in 2016 with a .366 wOBA against that handedness, and he faces off with lefty Tyler Anderson tonight, who has given up a .384 wOBA to right-handed bats at home. Teammate Wilmer Flores ($3,400) is another player to consider.
Mike Moustakas, KC vs TEX ($3,900): Moustakas is a good player to spend up on, being at home against Bartolo Colon on Monday night. After a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitchers last season he’s done slightly better in 2018 with a .367 wOBA. Meanwhile, Colon struggled against left-handed hitter last season, allowing a .381 wOBA.
Carlos Correa, HOU vs TB ($4,300): Once again it appears to be a good idea to pay up for Correa, who has caught fire over the last week or so. He has over a 1.200 OPS over his last six games, fueled by three home runs. Tonight he’ll face off at home against a series of mediocre pitchers from the Rays, where he had a .409 wOBA last season (.368 for his career).
Joc Pederson, LAD at CHC ($2,800): Pederson has been a daily consideration for DFS over the last couple of weeks. He’s had seven home runs and an OPS over 1.400 in his last 14 games and gets a solid matchup against the struggling Tyler Chatwood. The right-hander’s given up free pass after free pass this season, and his worst split has been at home against left-handed hitters.
Joey Gallo, TEX at KC ($2,900): While Kansas City doesn’t have a great hitter’s park, Gallo possesses one of the bigger bats in the league. He has a .343 wOBA this season against right-handed pitching (.364 last season) and he’s been slightly better on the road since the start of 2017. At home since the start of 2017, Ian Kennedy has been terrible against left-handed hitters, giving up a .383 wOBA including a home run for every 3.6 innings pitched.
Eric Thames, MIL at PIT ($3,200): Thames had a monster game Sunday with 56.4 fantasy points and has been hitting leadoff for the Brewers. The matchup against Trevor Williams is good, as Williams has given up wOBA's of .334 and .337 over the last two seasons at home against left-handed hitters. Meanwhile Thames, in his breakout season a year ago, posted a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching.