This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.
The 2020-21 NBA off-season keeps moving forward. Just when you think it's setting down, Houston and Washington swap mega-stars. As hopefully you've seen by now, we're answering One Big Fantasy Question for every NBA team. This is our Southeast Division break down. Here are links to our Atlantic and Central editions.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks just completed a dramatic shift from planning for the future to winning now. With big contracts for Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari, Atlanta has prioritized immediate success over developing their young talent. So, one must ask...
How will Atlanta's young players be affected by the arrival of Bogdanovic and Gallinari?
Let's first stress that nothing will change for Trae Young: he will still be the focal point of the offense. He might even get a boost in assists now that he has proven scorers to work with. But the veteran additions will negatively impact the fantasy values of John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter.
Let's start with Collins. Early word is that Collins will still start at power forward, with Gallinari as his primary back-up. Remember also that Clint Capela will make his Atlanta debut at center this year. So, suddenly Collins has legitimate competition at the four, with far fewer minutes available at the five. Collins averaged 33.2 minutes per game last year. I see that going down a bit in 2020-21. Plus, Capela's presence probably means Collins shifts more to the perimeter, which could hurt his rebounds and blocks numbers. With all of that said, Collins is clearly a foundational player for the Hawks. They'd be crazy to limit his playing time too much.
The more dire concerns are for Huerter, Reddish and Hunter. Bogdanovic got stuck coming off the bench often in Sacramento. He didn't come to Atlanta to play sixth man, and bench players don't make $18 million a year. The Hawks also added defensive specialist Kris Dunn, which allows for even fewer minutes for the young players.
Of the three youngsters, Huerter is the best catch-and-shoot player – he shot 38.0 percent from behind the arc last year. That should fit fairly well when Young, Bogdanovic or Collins need to be bailed out on errant drives. Still, expect his 10.9 FGA to do down. Reddish and Hunter could be in real trouble. Keeper league managers should be very concerned. We have both players ranked outside the Top 150 in 9-category leagues for 2020-21. I don't see how either player garners more than 22 minutes per game.
Charlotte Hornets
I get it. When you've lost as many games as Charlotte has over the years, you have to over-pay free agents. But $120 million over four years for a guy who's only played 125 games over the past three seasons? Regardless of whether or not Charlotte is spending well, they have certainly improved their depth. Between Gordon Hayward's ball handling skills, and the addition of number three pick LaMelo Ball, the Hornets suddenly have a lot of guys who can move the rock. With that in mind…
Can Devonte' Graham repeat his breakout 2019-20 season?
As a quick reminder, Graham last year came out of nowhere to post 18.2 points, 7.5 dimes, 1.0 steal and 3.5 triples per game last year. Impressive. His minutes skyrocketed from 14.7 per game in 2018-10 to 35.1 per contest last season. But now the Hornets' backcourt has turned into a three-headed monster with Ball, Graham and Terry Rozier. Rozier still has two years and roughly $39 million remaining on his contract, so Charlotte is clearly invested in Rozier's success. And despite shooting poorly for Boston over four years, Rozier noticeably improved with Charlotte, shooting 42.3 percent from the field and 87.4 from the charity stripe. Despite all of Graham's hype, he shot worse than Rozier last year, hitting only 38.2 percent of his FGA's and 82.0 percent of his free throws.
Early on, I suspect the Hornets will ease Ball into the rotation by bringing him off the bench. But Ball is the star of the future -- he will play and gradually get big minutes. Graham's 35.1 minutes per contest will go down and some of his ball handling duties will shift to Ball, particularly after January and beyond. Keep in mind that last year Charlotte's starting small forward was Miles Bridges (only 11.6 shots per game), while Nic Batum was still around for part of the season. Hayward, who took 13.5 shots per game last year as Boston's fourth option, will shoot much more than Bridges. And Ball will eventually see more than 23 minutes per contest.
RotoWire projects 17.8 points, 5.8 assists and 3.4 three-pointers for Graham in 2020-21. I'm not that optimistic. Graham isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year. With fewer minutes and fewer shots, I expect something more like 15.0 points, 4.8 dimes and 2.9 threes per game. That's still awfully useful, but still a step back for Graham.
Bonus question: Can PJ Washington, at 6-foot-7, really handle lots of minutes at center, as coach James Borrego has promised?
Miami Heat
I think everyone appreciates the hard-nosed approach that led the Heat to the NBA Finals last year. The development of sharpshooter Duncan Robinson was impressive and showed that this team knows what it's doing. Including Jae Crowder in the Andre Iguodala deal was very smart, as Crowder turned out to be a perfect complement to their stars in the starting lineup. And veteran Goran Drogac seemed to return to 2013-14 Suns form during Miami's playoff run. But what I can't get out of my head was how well 19-year-old rookie Tyler Herro played during some very big moments in the postseason.
Will Tyler Herro break-out in 2020-21?
This postseason, Herro was worthy of the Sam Cassell big-you-know-what dance with 16.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.3 three-pointers per contest. He sure didn't look like a kid two years removed from high school. Goran Dragic, who they should clearly save (again) for the playoffs, will be 35 years old when the 2021 postseason starts. Jimmy Butler doesn't need a ton of shots to be happy. The Heat's playoff run proved they don't need Kendrick Nunn. Avery Bradley was brought in to play defense. The Heat will get very few points from their power forward mix of Meyers Leonard and rookie Precious Achiuwa.
This is my long-winded way of saying Herro could post 18.0 points, 5.0 boards, 2.5 three-pointers and four assists a game and I would not be surprised. Like every second year player, expect his shooting to improve from the 42.8 FG% and 87.0 FT% numbers he posted last year. After the first few rounds, you should always draft for upside. Herro oozes upside from his pores. He's got an early 2020-21 ADP of 72. I'll happily grab him in the 60's.
Orlando Magic
Good lord this team is boring. Jonathan Isaac is a consensus RotoWire favorite, but will miss the entire 2020-21 season due to a knee injury suffered during the bubble seeding games. You know things are bad when it's worrisome that D.J. Augustin left town. Aaron Gordon seems to have peaked at age 22 (2017-18), which is really depressing. So let's turn to Orlando's one hope for improvement:
Will former first-overall pick Markelle Fultz turn into a fantasy stud?
In a word, no. He clearly fears taking the big shot and opposing teams were begging him to shoot from outside last year, leaving him painfully wide open. His three-point shooting actually went down from 28.6 percent during his last year in Philly to 26.7 percent in Orlando last year. He took only 10.7 field goal attempts last year, despite Orlando desperately needing a third scorer.
Orlando has nothing to lose by giving Fultz huge minutes because this team isn't going anywhere. And Augustin's departure should create more floor time for Fultz. But Orlando drafted UNC point guard Cole Anthony with the 15th pick this draft. A mediocre team doesn't do that if they think their current point guard is their future. If you are in a standard 12-team league, then Fultz should certainly be rostered. RotoWire's 9-category rankings project Fultz at No. 95 overall. But if your squad, like Orlando, is relying on a big Fultz breakout, you are in trouble.
Washington Wizards
Goodbye John Wall and hello Russell Westbrook. Sure, the Wizards are swapping one overpaid point guard for another, but at least Westbrook can be relied on to play roughly 80% of Washington's games. What does this all mean for Washington's true star?
Will Bradley Beal's fantasy stats go up or down with Russell Westbrook on the roster?
Guess who was Washington's second-leading scorer, after Beal, last season? I'll wait… it was the Latvian Laser, Davis Bertans, at 15.4 points per game. Jordan McRae had 12.8 per game in 29 contests before being traded. Isaiah Thomas posted 12.2 points per contest before also being traded. Ish Smith somehow scored 10.9 per game.
My point is Washington needs a real second scorer. And plenty of shots can be siphoned from lesser talents than Beal to make sure Westbrook gets his customary 22 shots per game. In fact, Westbrook might actually create some easier shots for Beal on legitimate drive and dishes. Remember, Westbrook averaged 10.4 dimes per game in OKC's more traditional offense. You think he'll dish to Robin Lopez instead of Bradley Beal? I doubt it.
I'm worried about Rui Hachimura, Bertans and Thomas Bryant getting fewer scoring chances. But even Westbrook knows this is Beal's team. I expect Beal to once again approach 30 points per game, but he'll likely take a step back as a passer. I also expect Beal's field goal percentage to return to the 46-48 percent he had in 2016 to 2019.
That's it for our look at the Southeast. Here are the One Big Question articles for the other divisions:
