FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

What better day to win some cash? Most of the bills have presidents on them. Let's get this seven-game holiday slate going.

SLATE OVERVIEW

CHI @ IND (-5.5) O/U: 228

HOU @ WAS (-1.5) O/U: 228.5

ATL @ NYK (+1.5) O/U: 217

PHI @ UTA (-7) O/U: 227.5

CLE @ GS (-8) O/U: 224.5

MIA @ LAC (-5.5) O/U: 220.5

BKN @ SAC (+4) O/U: 237.5

(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)

Games/Teams to Target in BOLD

Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC

INJURIES

CHI Lauri Markkanen (shoulder) - OUT

CHI Wendell Carter (quad) - QUESTIONABLE

Carter practiced Sunday, so we may finally see him back after a month's absence. Even if he does return, he will likely be on a minutes restriction so Thaddeus Young ($6,100) and Patrick Williams ($4,500) will still garner a look.

HOU Victor Oladipo (foot) - OUT

HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT

With Oladipo out, go the revenge route with John Wall ($7,700), who will face his former team in a fast-paced matchup.  Eric Gordon ($6,200) will also excel without Oladipo, although his price tag has inflated in recent days. DeMarcus Cousins ($6,100) is floating down to a more attractive salary, and he should have little problem getting 5x value against a weak Wizards frontcourt.

WAS Russell Westbrook (possible rest) - QUESTIONABLE

WAS Ish Smith (quad) - OUT

Westbrook typically sits on a back-to-back, but the Wizards have yet to determine his status today.  Obviously, Bradley Beal ($9,800) becomes one of the top plays on the slate without their top point guard, and Raul Neto ($3,700) would likely enter the starting lineup in Westbrook's place if he were to sit.

NYK Mitchell Robinson (hand) - OUT

Nerlens Noel ($4,800) didn't exactly light things up as the most likely beneficiary in this spot, but Obi Toppin ($3,500) crushed value at this salary, which indicates that the Knicks prefer sliding Julius Randle ($8,600) to center and utilizing Toppin at the four.

PHI Joel Embiid (back) - QUESTIONABLE

PHI Shake Milton (ankle) - OUT

A scratch from Embiid would elevate Dwight Howard ($3,600) into the starting lineup, but a boost for the Sixers' usual starters is probably a better recommendation. Seth Curry ($4,100) remains a decent cheap option in Milton's absence.

UTA Mike Conley (hamstring) - OUT

Jordan Clarkson ($5,500) is still at a ridiculously low salary point on FanDuel, so he's an incredibly chalky play here. The rest of the offense is humming as well, and we may get to more options below.

GSW Draymond Green (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

The emergence of this injury would force the Warriors to give a start to Eric Paschall ($3,700), but it's not a spot I'm thrilled with. I think it is a good opportunity for Kelly Oubre ($6,700) to earn more rebounds, however.

MIA Goran Dragic (ankle) - OUT

Kendrick Nunn ($5,500) continues to excel in Dragic's absence, and a healthy Tyler Herro ($5,800) will also get extended run in this spot.

LAC Kawhi Leonard (leg) - QUESTIONABLE

LAC Paul George (toe) - QUESTIONABLE

These absences represent the biggest question marks on the slate. We aren't sure if Leonard's injury is serious because he would have been a likely scratch anyway on this back-to-back. George's issue is a more legitimate worry. The wise move here is to allow for some late-swap contingencies and give Lou Williams ($6,600) and Marcus Morris ($5,200) a go. You can always swap them both out for Leonard or George and find a lower cost guy in the BKN/SAC game.

BKN Kevin Durant (hamstring) - OUT

We'll discuss the elite options for this spot below, but I like Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,800) as the value candidate to start in this spot.

SAC Marvin Bagley (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

If Bagley is out, give Harrison Barnes ($6,600) an exposure bump.

ELITE PLAYERS

After Embiid at $10,700, James Harden ($10,600) is the next priciest option, and with Durant sitting I will give additional exposure to the Beard in a very exploitable matchup versus the Kings. Kyrie Irving ($9,600) should also excel here, but Harden could take over the game if his shot is dialed in. Rounding out the 10k-plus options is Stephen Curry ($10,500) against Cleveland. It's not a terrible matchup by any means, but it might not be a night to pay up for him.  He's depended almost entirely on scoring output for his fantasy totals in recent days, so we risk a lack of upside by locking Curry in.

The Clippers situation dominates the 9k range, but Domantas Sabonis ($9,600) is a fair play against a compromised Chicago frontcourt. Some of his recent lines have been disappointing, so Sabonis could represent an opportunity to get less popular at the top end of the pool.  Ben Simmons ($8,900) would need to turn up the gas in an Embiid absence, but his exposure would dip for me if Embiid were to suit up. Utah is running red hot of late, and Philly is not a team that I'm focused on as a result. De'Aaron Fox ($8,700) is off the injury report and certainly an intriguing play against Brooklyn. If there's no minute restriction, there's merit for Fox as a tournament play.  

Also consider: Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,700) @ LAC

EXPECTED CHALK

Julius Randle, NYK ($8,600) vs. ATL

Many would disagree, but I was one of the few in my seasonal league who didn't make a bid on Nerlens Noel this week. My reasoning is simple - Randle has experience at the five and is a much better option, and while I think Noel and Randle will run together, the team is keen to give Obi Toppin more time.  No matter which way the arrow points for Noel, Randle should excel in a game where Atlanta will force the Knicks' usually slow pace to rise.

Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,300) vs. PHI

I caught a bit of the Jazz's win against Miami, and it's easy to forget how dynamic Mitchell can be, especially when he has most of the backcourt to himself. With Conley out, I like him almost as much as I like Jordan Clarkson, with salary being the only differentiating factor. Mitchell's floor of around 35 FP won't help you, but his upside is incredibly strong. 50-60 FP is a nightly possibility, and tonight could be one of those nights.

Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,800) vs. CHI

Brogdon finally picked back up against Atlanta, and he saw a salary increase as a result. Still, I like him against the Bulls. He should improve on the 32 FP performance he posted against them in the early days of the season, and the Bulls struggle against opposing point guards. They've allowed an average of 24.1 points and 8.6 assists to them this season.

Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,400) @ UTA

I would only go here in the event of an Embiid absence, but he's probably the most reliable mid-range option for the team if you can't be around for lock and have a good feeling about the Sixers tonight. His floor will almost always hover around 5x value, and he is due for a bounce-back game after a poor shooting night against the Suns.

Myles Turner, IND ($6,800) vs. CHI

If you don't have the stomach for Sabonis' salary, you could easily opt for Turner, who currently leads the league in blocked shots and produces a nifty 1.1 FPPM average. He can beat 5x as a size mismatch against Chicago and is a good contrarian call at the valuable center position.

VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and below)

As per usual, refer back to the injury section for other budget options.

Andre Drummond, CLE ($6,500) @ GS

Not much analysis is needed to explain how good a play this could be, as the Warriors are in small-ball mode and Drummond can be a nightmare for teams that lack a big man to match him. The Cavs elected to rest him Sunday, so he should be fresh and ready to bounce back after a couple of shaky performances.

Collin Sexton, CLE ($6,500) @ GS

Sexton's ability to break 5x value is well-documented, and I think he's another great Cleveland option against the Warriors. He dipped a bit against the Clippers but racked up 40 FP against Portland, and he could produce less than that and still be worthwhile tonight. He may line up against Andrew Wiggins, who is one of the league's premier defensive players, but Darius Garland will find a way to give Sexton some off-the-ball opportunities.

Moritz Wagner, WAS ($4,100) vs. HOU

Wagner is back in the starting lineup and is already reaping dividends, tallying a value-beating 26 FP night against the Celtics. Houston's defense has struggled a bit of late, and I think Wagner's numbers will continue to trend up.

Some additional value options:

PF Jae'Sean Tate, HOU ($5,400) @ WAS

SF Nicolas Batum, LAC ($5,100) vs. MIA

SF Joe Harris, BKN ($4,900) @ SAC

SG Bruce Brown, BKN ($3,900) @ SAC

SF Deni Avdija, WAS ($3,800) vs. HOU

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NBA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NBA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
DraftKings Sportsbook: Saturday Best Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook: Saturday Best Bets
FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays
FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays
DraftKings NBA: Saturday Cheat Sheet
DraftKings NBA: Saturday Cheat Sheet
Yahoo DFS Basketball: Saturday Picks
Yahoo DFS Basketball: Saturday Picks
Fantasy Basketball Podcast: Oladipo Hurt, Drummond Back, OKC FA's
Fantasy Basketball Podcast: Oladipo Hurt, Drummond Back, OKC FA's
Handicapping the NBA: Friday Picks
Handicapping the NBA: Friday Picks