FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We're set for a second straight four-game postseason slate Sunday, one that features a quartet of Game 4s in series that all carry 2-1 margins. However, we also have four prominent players from four different teams sporting questionable designations, and at least three seem to be legitimate 50/50 propositions. Even with those health concerns factored in, there's still a solid player pool to work with considering there are eight clubs in action. 

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the two games with projected totals over 220 points: 

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics (Projected total: 228.0 points) 

The Celtics shocked the Nets on Friday in a game that finished with 244 total points. It's the second straight total north of 230 in the series and depending on Kemba Walker's availability – he's questionable with a knee injury – this number in the high 220s could certainly be within reach. The Nets' Big Three should once again be poised for success, with Kyrie Irving likely to bounce back from a poor shooting night in Game 3 and the James Harden-Kevin Durant duo coming off a contest where they combined for 80 points. 

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (Projected total: 221.0 points) 

The Clippers were able to break the ice in Game 3 with an impressive 118-point effort, following a 121-point tally in a losing effort. What was key for LA in that game was double-digit point contributions from someone other than Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, with Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson both accomplishing the feat. They could certainly do their part to help meet this total or exceed it if they can once again get similar production from complementary sources. Meanwhile, the Mavs have one giant question mark in the form of Luka Doncic, who's questionable due to a cervical strain suffered in Game 3. Needless to say, if he were to sit out, Dallas would be faced with a massive scoring vacuum considering the All-Star guard has averaged 38.0 points and 9.0 assists over the first three contests. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Luka Doncic, DAL (neck)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Doncic reportedly began to feel some neck pain that extended into his left arm after Game 3, leaving him questionable for Sunday. Were he to sit out, Jalen Brunson is likely to draw a start at point guard while the usage rates of the remainder of the starting five would naturally skyrocket. 

Anthony Davis, LAL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

While Davis is questionable, he's on record saying he will definitely play today. Were he to have a setback, Markieff Morris would likely draw a start at power forward while LeBron James' usage would see an even bigger boost than usual. 

Chris Paul, PHO (shoulder)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Paul continues to be bothered by the shoulder contusion suffered in Game 1, as he's averaged just 6.7 points on 38.1 percent shooting over the first three games of the series. If the veteran were to sit out, Cameron Payne could be due for a start at point guard. 

Kemba Walker, BOS (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Walker were forced to sit out with his left knee bone bruise, Jayson Tatum would see even higher usage than usual while Payton Pritchard and Tremont Waters would likely be the most direct beneficiaries. 

Other notable injuries: 

Maxi Kleber, DAL (Achilles)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Serge Ibaka, LAC (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Robert Williams, BOS (ankle)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Jeff Green, BKN (foot)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

We have seven players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Luka Doncic ($11,500), James Harden ($11,000), Kevin Durant ($10,600), Jayson Tatum ($10,500, Kawhi Leonard ($10,300), Anthony Davis ($10,200) and LeBron James ($10,000). 

Doncic has been outstanding over the first three games of the series as detailed earlier, but his health will have to be monitored throughout the day due to his neck strain. 

Harden was excellent in the Game 3 defeat with a 41-point, 10-assist double-double that led to 65.4 FD points, giving him two tallies of greater than 50 in the series. He should once again have a massive role in a key Game 4. 

The Celtics have yet to prove they can stop Durant, who's scored 49.9 to 63.3 FD points in the first three games while shooting 50.8 percent, and he should continue to be heavily involved in Game 4. 

Tatum is coming off a massive 50-point performance that netted 75.4 FD points and could have an even bigger role than usual if Kemba Walker is forced to sit out due to his knee injury. 

Leonard has scored over 50 FD points in each of the first three and shot an outstanding 60.0 percent while doing so, while Davis and James have also proven worthy of their salaries, although the former's health should be monitored ahead of tip-off. 

Healthy players with salaries in the high four figures capable of also delivering elite scores include Paul George ($9,100), Julius Randle ($8,900), Trae Young ($8,800) and Kyrie Irving ($8,400), with all four likely to continue enjoying expanded roles in what should be tightly contested games.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include: 

Clint Capela, ATL ($8,000) 

Capela hasn't quite been as effective on the offensive end as he was during the regular season, but he's still scored over 30 FD points in each of the first three matchups versus the Knicks. 

Devin Booker, PHO ($7,800) 

Booker was ejected in Game 3 for a flagrant-2 foul, but he scored over 30 points in each of the first two games of the series and should continue to be highly rostered. 

Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,700) 

The Lakers haven't been able to slow down Ayton yet, as the big man has posted three consecutive double-doubles. 

Derrick Rose, NYK ($7,100) 

Rose moved into the starting lineup in Game 3 and has scored 31.5 to 45.7 FD points in the first three games of the series, arguably making his current salary a bargain for his ceiling. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL ($6,900) 

Bogdanovic has posted over 30 FD points in each of the first three games and should continue to play a major role in the Hawks' attack.  

Key Values  

Dennis Schroder, LAL vs. PHO ($6,300) 

Schroder has been an excellent source of complementary production over the first three games by scoring 24.7 to 34.1 FD points while shooting an impressive 55.9 percent, including 40.0 percent form distance. Granted, those figures represent a much higher level of efficiency than Schroder typically offered during the regular season, but Chris Paul's ongoing shoulder issues could certainly be playing a role in his struggles on defense. It's also worth noting Phoenix is ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed in the paint (57.6 percent), a vulnerability Schroder can certainly exploit with his ability to drive to the basket.

Tristan Thompson, BOS vs. BKN ($5,900) 

Thompson has been outpacing his salary in the first three matchups by scoring 27.0 to 34.1 FD points during that span while averaging 12.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 1.0 assist across 26.7 minutes. The big man should remain in the starting five with Robert Williams doubtful to play, and with the Nets allowing the seventh-highest offensive efficiency (33.9 percent) to centers, Thompson could be set to deliver over 5x his salary again. That becomes even more likely if Kemba Walker - whose absences this season have resulted in Thompson averaging 34.9 FD points per 36 minutes - is also sidelined with a knee issue.

Reggie Jackson, LAC at DAL ($4,900) 

Jackson has scored 25.6 and 23.6 FD points in the last two games, logging a start in the latter while Patrick Beverley was relegated to six minutes off the bench. Jackson shot a solid 45.8 percent, including 38.9 percent from three-point range, on 12 shot attempts per contest in Games 2 and 3, and if he enjoys similar run Sunday, he could certainly be in line to offer at least 5x return on a very reasonable salary. Dallas is allowing 45.5 FD points per game to point guards over the last 10 as well, and Jackson would arguably have an even clearer path to success if Doncic were to sit.

Other value plays to consider: Evan Fournier, BOS vs. BKN ($5,500); Tim Hardaway, DAL vs. LAC ($5,400); Alec Burks, NY at ATL ($5,100); De'Andre Hunter, ATL vs. NY ($4,600)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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