This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Wednesday's slate begins slightly earlier at 7:00 p.m. ET with a potential elimination looming for Memphis in the nightcap.
BOS (-5.5) vs. MIL O/U: 214.5
GSW (-4) @ MEM O/U: 218.5
The loss of Morant compelled the bookmakers to lower their O/U for the late-night matchup, but the Grizzlies have shown that they can put up a lot of points in his absence. For the sports bettors out there, the over seems like a good bet, and the game is also my favorite source for mid-range value.
MEM Ja Morant (knee) - OUT
Barring dramatic improvement, it looks like Morant is done for the season. Tyus Jones ($5,700) turned in a brilliant game in Morant's place, logging 19 points, six rebounds and five assists in the narrow loss. We'll endorse Jones along with some other Grizzlies who we'll tackle later in the article.
MIL Khris Middleton (knee) - OUT
Middleton's injury is exposing the Bucks' weaknesses against Boston's smothering defense. Aside from the elites, the bench isn't doing much for Milwaukee, so we'll hold off on mentioning any pivots in this spot for the moment.
BOS Robert Williams (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
It's about 50/50 as to Williams' chances to take the floor Wednesday, although an absence would certainly help keep the ball rolling for Al Horford ($7.900), although his value is fine independent of Williams' absence. Grant Williams didn't do enough to warrant consideration in Robert Willams' absence, so he's off the list tonight.
GSW Gary Payton (elbow) - OUT
Jordan Poole ($6,600) will dominate the second-unit guard duties with the second unit once again.
Clicking the lock button on Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) proved to be a sound play in Game 4, and there's no reason to pivot to a different decision despite traveling to a hostile environment. His 34/18/5 line was more than enough to justify his salary. Jayson Tatum ($10,000) once again joins Giannis in the 10k-plus echelon, and his 50.5 FDFPs in Game 4 represented an excellent bounce-back. Despite the upward trend, I'm still not convinced about taking an expensive risk when I can use the extra salary on other targets.
It's hard to go wrong at guard in the elite levels, as Stephen Curry ($9,600) and Jrue Holiday ($8,800) haven't seen any regression, although Holiday's shot isn't running as pure in recent games. Despite that issue, he's still coming in with value-beating numbers.
Finally, you can rely on Jaylen Brown ($8,700) to once again carry a sizeable load, despite taking a slight step back in their Game 4 win.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($7,600) vs. GSW
The Grizzlies face elimination, and they'll need Jackson to dominate inside if they hope to catch up in the series. He did his level-best during their last game in Chase Arena, but his 21 points and five blocked shots weren't enough to change the result. He only netted five rebounds in Game 4, and that number will need improvement to maximize Jackson's value.
I'm bunching these Warriors together again because they both have interchangeable numbers at roughly the same salary point. Wiggins' double-double capability is slightly more reliable than a pure shooting performance from Thompson, which makes Wiggins a sounder cash play. Thompson is still a good upside risk in tournaments, however.
Desmond Bane, MEM ($6,100) vs. GSW
Bane's assist numbers salvaged his stat line in Game 4, and he's been a variance-ridden pick throughout this series. Still, explosive numbers from Bane rank high as the key to getting the Grizzlies out of a 3-1 hole. Slotting Bane means a lot of risk, but taking a chance on him in a few GPP lineups could reap benefits.
Also consider: Marcus Smart, BOS ($6,300) vs. MIL
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($5,600) vs. GSW
I gave Brooks a full-throated endorsement for Game 4, and I will go right back to the well despite him performing below expectations. Even though he struggled, his 29 FDFPs beat value at his previous salary, so I wouldn't let the bad press fool you. If anything, his popularity may drop over concerns about his Game 4 performance. That's reason enough to stick with him.
Pat Connaughton, MIL ($4,900) @ BOS
With two consecutive games of 22 or more fantasy points, Connaughton is a good semi-punt play to keep down your costs. His intangibles don't translate into solid stats, but Middleton's absence has definitely helped his usage. He eclipsed 30 minutes on the floor in Games 3 and 4, and when you can get hot like Connaughton, it's plenty of time to make an impact.
Kyle Anderson, MEM ($4.700) vs. GSW
Anderson's salary shot up $600 after he turned in his best playoff performance of the season in Game 4. Sure, the metrics show that these numbers aren't sustainable, but any number of bench contributors have to make their mark with Morant out. Anderson's veteran presence will be useful. I wouldn't stack him with Brooks or Jackson, however. The negative correlation won't help you.
Also consider: Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,600) @ BOS