NBA Draft Kit: Southeast Division Position Battles

NBA Draft Kit: Southeast Division Position Battles

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

Now that the inevitable gold medals were earned by Team USA in Rio, it's time to focus on the upcoming 2016-17 NBA season. (And, I guess, fantasy football). To get things started, we're going to dive into position battles broiling in each division. Today, let's examine the Eastern Conference's Southeast Division.

Last season, the Southeast was a fairly bland collection of mediocrity, with none of the five teams posing a real threat to the dominant Cavaliers. And, frankly, I don't think LeBron James is losing any sleep over Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka coming east. Still, there were some big roster moves in the Southeast that will greatly impact the upcoming fantasy season.

Atlanta Hawks

Dwight Howard can shed all the homecoming tears he wants, it's still hard to get excited about Atlanta swapping out Al Horford for the shell-of-his-former-self Howard. Clearly, though, the starting center position is all Dwight's. The key battle will be on the perimeter:

Shooting Guard:Kyle Korver, Tim Hardaway, Thabo Sefolosha

Two years ago, this would be a no-brainer, with Korver likely playing 32 minutes per game. But father time is catching up to the 35-year-old veteran, as his field-goal percentage dropped more than five points to 43.4 percent, while his free-throw shooting percentage fell six-plus points to 83.3 percent. Korver has obviously mastered Coach Mike Budenholzer's offensive scheme, but can his creaky ankles execute what his mind knows he's supposed to do?

Beyond experience, Korver is also aided by a lack of

Now that the inevitable gold medals were earned by Team USA in Rio, it's time to focus on the upcoming 2016-17 NBA season. (And, I guess, fantasy football). To get things started, we're going to dive into position battles broiling in each division. Today, let's examine the Eastern Conference's Southeast Division.

Last season, the Southeast was a fairly bland collection of mediocrity, with none of the five teams posing a real threat to the dominant Cavaliers. And, frankly, I don't think LeBron James is losing any sleep over Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka coming east. Still, there were some big roster moves in the Southeast that will greatly impact the upcoming fantasy season.

Atlanta Hawks

Dwight Howard can shed all the homecoming tears he wants, it's still hard to get excited about Atlanta swapping out Al Horford for the shell-of-his-former-self Howard. Clearly, though, the starting center position is all Dwight's. The key battle will be on the perimeter:

Shooting Guard:Kyle Korver, Tim Hardaway, Thabo Sefolosha

Two years ago, this would be a no-brainer, with Korver likely playing 32 minutes per game. But father time is catching up to the 35-year-old veteran, as his field-goal percentage dropped more than five points to 43.4 percent, while his free-throw shooting percentage fell six-plus points to 83.3 percent. Korver has obviously mastered Coach Mike Budenholzer's offensive scheme, but can his creaky ankles execute what his mind knows he's supposed to do?

Beyond experience, Korver is also aided by a lack of other options. Tim Hardaway was given plenty of opportunities to shine last year, yet he only averaged 6.4 points and 0.4 steals in 17 minutes per game. Thabo Sefolosha is also no spring chicken, and even at his physical peak he's never been more than a 3-and-D specialist. Plus, the Hawks need Sefolosha to back up Kent Bazemore at the three.

As the Hawks watch Korver limp out to 50+ starts, the organization might really regret not dealing Korver, Al Horford, Jeff Teague or Paul Millsap at last February's trade deadline.

Before we leave the Hawks, remember the lecture Charles Barkley gave Dwight on Inside the NBA during last year's playoffs? I loved it. Take a look:

Charlotte Hornets

That loud, grinding, murmuring sound you hear is slow footed Al Jefferson moving out of Charlotte and possibly even slower footed Roy Hibbert moving in. Good Lord, I wish I was seven-feet tall. And to keep the slow trend going, Charlotte also replaced Jeremy Lin with Marco Belinelli and Ramon Sessions.

Center:Roy Hibbert, Cody Zeller, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky

It wasn't that long ago that Hibbert anchored a Pacers team with NBA Finals aspirations, as his rim protection was hailed as "game changing." He then had four straight seasons shooting under 45 percent from the field, a sin for someone his size who never leaves the paint. Clearly, Hibbert lost confidence in his shot. This resulted in lost minutes, ever decreasing shot attempts and, most importantly, a drop from 2.6 blocks per game during the 2012-13 season to a pedestrian 1.4 during his lowly LA season. Watching the plodding video of Hibbert in a Lakers uniform makes Cody Zeller's modest numbers seem better. The 23-year-old Zeller's third year in the NBA last season was his best as he averaged 8.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 53 percent from the field – all career highs. Zeller has not yet reached his ceiling and has a real shot at repeating his 60 starts from last year, even with the Hibbert signing.

Speaking of high ceilings, one must assume the seven-foot Frank Kaminsky will improve on his rookie season, as he and Spencer Hawes showed good chemistry together last year. Kaminsky will probably see more minutes at power forward, backing up Marvin Williams, while Hawes may be the most harmed by Hibbert joining the squad. Last year, the man-bunned one had his second straight season of fewer than 20 minutes per game. Things are trending in the wrong way for the 28-year-old veteran.

Points Off The Bench:Ramon Sessions, Jeremy Lamb, Marco Belinelli

Jeremy Lin provided a constant spark off the bench for Charlotte last year, earning a starting position in Brooklyn. With Lin gone, someone will need to pick up the slack and replace his 11.7 points, 3.0 assists and 1.0 made threes per game. Charlotte hopes that dueling 30-year-olds Sessions and Belinelli can step in, but the numbers say it's unlikely. Sessions had a minor career renaissance in Washington last year, playing 20 minutes per game (while appearing in all 82 contests) and shooting a career-high 47 percent from the field. But he lacks the three-point threat (only 0.4 made threes per game last year) to help Charlotte spread the floor. (Remember, Kemba Walker is also a poor shooter.) Belinelli has seen his field-goal shooting decline each of the past three seasons, and one must wonder if his modest success was more due to the Spurs' system than individual talent, as he shot a career-worst 38.6 percent in Sacramento last season. Maybe this is the year Jeremy Lamb finally puts it all together after he shot a career-high 45.1 percent from the field last year, earning himself a three-year contract extension that shows the organization has confidence in him.

Miami Heat

So Dwyane Wade's 16 shot attempts per game just walked out the door. That is still a shock to my system. But one man's confusing end-of-career homecoming is another man's opportunity. And, in a much less surprising move, Luol Deng and his 10 shots per game headed out to LA. There are suddenly a lot of open minutes in Miami.

Wings:Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Wayne Ellington, James Johnson

It's not inconceivable that four of the five players above could see a big bump in minutes. Winslow clearly has the highest upside, as the second-year, 20-year-old is coming off an impressive 28.6 minutes per game last season. Unfortunately, the defensive-minded Winslow may be a better real-life player than fantasy option. Expect him to start at small forward, as Heat President Pat Riley already indicated. Defense-oriented veteran James Johnson will back up Winslow, and for those tempted to take a flier on Johnson, remember he had multiple opportunities to shine in Toronto yet never came through.

The bigger mystery is probably at shooting guard. One-year gamble Dion Waiters may seem like the expected starter, but remember the Heat have sophomore Josh Richardson locked up for this season and next. The smarter long-term play is to develop Richardson into an NBA starter, especially after he shot 46.1 percent from three as a rookie. Richardson further proved his worth by averaging 16.7 points per game in three summer league appearances this July. My gut tells me Waiters' poor shot selection and defensive lapses will force coach Erik Spoelstra to start Richardson. Wayne Ellington started 41 times for a woeful Nets team last year, but Miami would be wise to not follow their example. Ellington had huge opportunities with Brooklyn last year and the possibly worse Lakers the year before, but he did little with both opportunities. (I say "little," but the Heat are paying him $12 million over the next two years – I'd take that). The extra minutes merely exposed Ellington's weaknesses, shooting 41.2 percent with LA and a career-worst 38.9 percent with Brooklyn. There is a reason Ellington is on his eighth team in nine seasons.

Orlando Magic

I'm happy to see Orlando admit that a roster full of 'tweeners makes for losing basketball. And one must respect coach Frank Vogel's .580 career winning percentage. I don't know how he'll solve the Magic's woeful outside shooting, but at least things are headed in the right direction. Now, about all those bigs…

Frontcourt:Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green, Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic

In the RotoWire NBA keeper league, Vucevic was considered a gem of a low-priced, long-term asset. Now, suddenly, he's looking up at Ibaka and Biyombo. The Magic didn't give away Victor Oladipo and a first-round pick (the Ibaka deal) to highlight Vucevic at power forward, and they didn't sign Biyombo for $72 million over four years to spotlight Vucevic at center. But Vucevic isn't the only Orlando youngster shaking his head. The much hyped but poor-shooting Gordon (29.6 percent from three-point range last season) is expected to move over to small forward. Certainly a lengthy trio if Biyombo, Ibaka and Gordon should play fierce defense, but do you really want your small forward to have this type of shot chart?

Aaron Gordon 2015-16 Season Shot Chart (note large red regions)

Jeff Green, surprisingly only 29 years old, appears to be in a steady decline, and he's likely to play fewer than the 26 minutes per game he received over 27 games with the Clippers. Green hasn't shot better than 44 percent since the 2012-13 season.

Washington Wizards

After a disappointing 2015-16 season, things didn't change much in Washington. Nene Hilario left as a free agent and signed with Houston, combo guard Tomas Satoransky was brought in from Europe and Les Boulez traded for Trey Burke. But those moves merely reshuffled the bench. Oh, and they gave Bradley Beal an ungodly $128 million over five years. Yikes!

The starting five is set with John Wall, Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and the Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat. Free-agent signee Ian Mahinmi (four years, $64 million) should provide quality rim protection off the bench with modest offensive production. There are no significant position battles on the Wizards, though look for Kelly Oubre to get more minutes.

That's it for the Southeast Division. Look for more position battle articles coming soon.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ken
An early RotoWire contributor from the 90's, K-Train returns with the grace of Gheorghe Muresan and the wisdom of Joe Gibbs. Ken is a two-time FSWA award winner and a co-host on the RW NBA Podcast. Championships incude: 2016 RW Staff NBA Keeper, 2019 RW Staff NFL Ottoneu Keeper, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Experts, 2022-23 SiriusXM NBA Kamla Keeper and 2023-24 FSGA NBA Expert Champions. Ken still owns a RotoNews shirt.
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