Defenses to avoid: No one: All four teams playing on Tuesday and Wednesday have demonstrated the ability to put up big numbers against each other. The Spurs have the best defense, are at home, and succeed when they are able to slow the action down against the Rockets. So, possibly, they could be the answer here. That said, the Rockets have already blown the Spurs out in San Antonio during this series, and there are plenty of value plays on the Rockets that make them difficult to avoid.
Offense to use: Boston Celtics, vs WAS: The Celtics and Wizards have traded victories on their home courts all season, so with this game being in Boston it makes sense to project the Celtics to have the slightly bigger fantasy numbers. But in reality, there is major value on both sides, led by two all-stars at the point guard spots.
James Harden, HOU at SA ($11,000): Harden scored 28 points with 12 assists, five boards, four treys and two steals in a Game 4 win over the Spurs. All told, he is averaging 52.4 fantasy points in the four games of the series. On Tuesday, heíll lead the Rockets in a pivotal Game 5 on the road in which the winner takes the driverís seat in the series.
Isaiah Thomas, BOS vs WAS ($9,000): Thomas averaged only 27 fantasy points in two games in Washington, but on Tuesday he will be back in Boston. In the two series games on his home court, Thomas averaged more than 61 fantasy points, leading the Celtics to two victories.
Patty Mills, SA vs HOU ($5,300): Mills has scored 27.8 and 22.5 fantasy points, respectively, in an average of 29 minutes in the two games since Tony Parker went down with an injury. Both of those games were on the road, though, while on Tuesday Mills returns home for the first time in his larger role. His price is still relatively low, but he still has more upside than the reasonable production he has shown so far.
Kawhi Leonard, SA vs HOU ($10,700): Leonard was held to only 16 points, six rebounds and four assists in 29.5 minutes of a Game 4 loss, but on the whole he is averaging 24.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.3 assists in the four games of the series. On Tuesday, he will lead the Spurs, without floor general Tony Parker, in a return to San Antonio with the series tied and the Spurs needing a win to maintain home court advantage.
Otto Porter, WAS at BOS ($6,400): Porter is dual-eligible at both forward positions and has been rock solid in this series so far. He scored 38 fantasy points in Game 4, and is averaging 36.6 fantasy points for the series thus far. This gives him a season-long average of 35.8 fantasy points in eight games against the Celtics, against whom he seemingly matches up very well.
Trevor Ariza, HOU at SA ($5,200): Ariza scored 36 fantasy points in Game 4, his third game between 34 and 37 fantasy points in the series. Ariza has been strong against the Spurs all season, averaging 29.7 fantasy points in eight games against them on the season.
Al Horford, BOS vs WAS ($7,100): Horford scored 30.3 fantasy points in 32 minutes of a blowout loss to the Wizards in Game 4, very similar to his production in Game 3. However, in the two series games in Boston, Horford averaged a bit more than 45 fantasy points as the Celtics cruised to a pair of victories. He is averaging 37.4 fantasy points in seven total games against the Wizards this season.
Pau Gasol, SA vs HOU ($5,900): Gasol has been consistently solid since returning to the starting lineup against the Rockets this season, scoring between 29 and 37 fantasy points in all three games. The Spurs need to play inside-out on offense in order to be successful against the Rockets, which requires that Gasol continue to be a significant part of the offense. Heíll look to take advantage of a season-ending injury to Houstonís Nene.
Clint Capela, HOU at SA ($5,500): Capela has bounced between average and extraordinary in his four games against the Spurs this series, scoring 42.8, 26.8, 46.3 and 26.3 fantasy points in the four games. This fits into his level of play against the Spurs all season, a team against which he is now averaging 30.8 fantasy points in seven total games.