This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
A pair of championship contenders are featured on Friday's college hoops slate. Here are my picks for two marquee games on tap as we head into the weekend.
Connecticut at 
Butler
The Huskies are once again playing like a championship-caliber team. They have the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating, and 23rd-highest defensive rating, making them an all-around elite squad. Connecticut has won 11 of 14 games by double digits, so it seems intent on repeating as national champs.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are having a much-needed bounce-back season. Butler, at 10-4, has already almost matched its win total from the past two years, looking like it will snap a streak of three straight seasons with fewer than 15 total wins. That said, it won't be easy. As the data currently stands, KenPom is projecting the Bulldogs will finish the season at 17-14, so they can't afford many letdowns if they want to post their best season since before 2020-21.
When stacking these teams against each other, it's readily apparent that UConn has a major advantage in the frontcourt. The Huskies have posted the 10th-highest offensive rebounding rate and 53rd-highest defensive rebounding rate, far above the Bulldogs' rebounding rankings of 210th on defense and 166th on offense. I would be remiss if I didn't note that UConn will be playing without star center Donovan Clingan who suffered a minor injury on Dec. 20 against Seton Hall. Losing this kind of player might hobble other teams, but UConn still has enough depth to excel until Clingan returns. Samson Johnson entered the starting lineup in the first game without Clingan, and he put up 16 points and four rebounds en route to earning "MVP" of the game, according to KenPom.
The other issue for Butler in this matchup is that it relies on inside scoring for most of its production, with over 54 percent of its total points coming by way of two-point shots, the 85th-highest percentage in the nation. UConn is particularly stout in the paint, holding opponents to under 43 percent on two-pointers, the 13th-lowest percentage allowed among all D1 teams. The Bulldogs are also prone to having their shots get blocked, ranked 200th in that category, a poor trait to have when going against the Huskies, a team that ranks 23rd in defensive block percentage.
Based on how these teams match up against each other, I'm betting that Butler is going to have an extremely difficult time scoring on UConn. What's more, the Huskies also prefer controlling the game with a slow methodical pace, a style they've strongly preferred for the past three seasons. This year is no different, as they rank 330th in adjusted tempo. For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Huskies and taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -6 and Under 143.5
Illinois at 
Purdue
The Illini have now played two games without star forward Terrence Shannon, and they haven't given any indication that they miss him, yet. They blew out lowly Fairleigh Dickinson, 104-71, and then defeated Northwestern by a similar margin, 96-66, earlier in the week on Jan. 2. Unfortunately for Illinois, Friday's opponent represents its biggest challenge of the season. Even after missing two games, Terrence Shannon is still ranked sixth on KenPom's Player of the Year Standings, so we can't overlook the fact that he's out, especially given the opponent. Shannon was the leading scorer on the team, by far, averaging nearly 22 points per game to go with four rebounds, two assists, one steal, and one block, a true stat-sheet stuffer. This production wasn't needed in the last two games. Friday will likely be a different story.
By now, most college hoops fans know all about Purdue. They're near the very top of the nation in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they feature reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey. The Boilermakers have already defeated Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona, among others, so we have to squint and spin some numbers to find anything negative to say.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, a few things stand out. First, Purdue is much better at drawing contact, significantly outranking Illinois in offensive free-throw attempt rate, 29th to 202nd. Second, the Boilermakers are more careful with the ball, again besting the Illini, 108th to 155th. Next, Purdue is an elite three-point shooting team, making 39 percent on the season, and this is especially notable because Illinois tends to leave the perimeter wide open. Interestingly, on defense, Illinois has seen the 22nd-highest frequency of three-point attempts among all D1 teams. These kinds of numbers might sometimes get skewed by the schedule of opponents, but that's not the case in this instance. Illinois has yet to play a team that ranks in the top 50 of three-point attempt percentage and has played many teams that are ranked below average in that category, helping reaffirm the notion that the defensive strategy is leading to this outcome. So, unless the Illini make drastic a change to their game plan on Friday, Boilermakers such as Braden Smith (22-of-45), Fletcher Loyer (26-of-66), and Mason Gillies (14-of-27) will likely put on a shooting clinic.
Based on the many advantages Purdue has entering this matchup, I'm laying the points with the Boilermakers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -10
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- UConn -6
- UConn at Butler - Under 143.5
- Purdue -10
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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