This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With arguably the best inter-conference slate of the season on tap, Steve Peralta shares his best bets for what is sure to be a thrilling Saturday in the college basketball world.
UCLA vs 
Kentucky
UCLA is on a roll since losing a pair of games in Las Vegas nearly a month ago, now riding a six-game win streak. During this scorching hot run, the Bruins are defeating opponents by an average of 24 points per game. The number is admittedly slightly inflated considering they defeated Pepperdine by 47 points, but in this same stretch, they've defeated quality opponents such as Stanford, Oregon and Maryland, all by nine points or more. What makes this team more dangerous than usual is its offense. Even prior to joining UCLA, head coach Mick Cronin established himself as an elite defensive coach, with Cincinnati constantly ranking near the top of KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings. Now in his fourth season at UCLA, the Bruins appear to be the best offensive team he's ever had, ranking No. 3 in adjusted efficiency. With veteran players like point guard Tyger Campbell and forward Jaime Jaquez leading the charge, this team plays with consistent energy every game.
Kentucky is also heating up, currently on a four-game win streak, although they haven't been quite as dominant as UCLA. Kentucky played a tight game against Michigan and then merely met expectations against lesser opponents, as opposed to UCLA which has continually exceeded expectations during its winning streak. The Bruins represent the biggest challenge that the Wildcats' defense has seen since it played Gonzaga on Nov. 20, a game in which Kentucky got blown out. Kentucky hasn't played as well against teams that are great at scoring, as the Wildcats also lost to Michigan State before playing in a close game against Michigan. But not only will Kentucky have its toughest defensive challenge yet, they'll also have their toughest offensive challenge as well.
There's always a chance Oscar Tshiebwe might sabotage my pick in this match-up, but ultimately I'm trusting that Mick Cronin's defensive strategy will help limit the damage. This game might very well come down to the final minute, and in that case, I'd rather have the better offensive team and the team that's less likely to commit a mistake. I'll take the Bruins.
College Basketball Best Bet: UCLA -2
Connecticut at 
Butler
Up to this point in the season, UConn has distinguished itself as the most balanced and dominant team in the country. The Huskies rank top-seven in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, a claim that no other team can make, and it's not close. Connecticut is 11-0 and has defeated every opponent by at least 10 points, with a scoring margin of 27 points per game for all 11 games. If there was a mercy rule in college basketball, it almost certainly would've been applied in UConn's previous game, one in which the Huskies bulldozed LIU by a score of 114-61. But never mind a team like LIU, Connecticut has also soundly defeated teams like Oregon, Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Florida. Saturday's opponent, Butler, has a lower overall efficiency ranking than any of the teams just listed, so there's not much reason to think we'll see a different outcome.
Butler, meanwhile, is sitting at a respectable 8-3 record in coach Thad Matta's first year with the team, although the Bulldogs have been unable to rise up to the toughest challenges. All three of Butler's losses came against their toughest opponents, and the games weren't competitive either. Butler lost by 26 points to Tennessee, 15 points to NC State, and although they only lost by six points at Penn State, the Nittany Lions' minimum win probability was 72 percent, per KenPom, suggesting the outcome was never really in doubt. Butler appears to be on the right track for rebuilding following a losing year, but the Bulldogs have not done anything this season to suggest they're ready to compete against arguably the best team in the country.
According to the Action Network, UConn is 10-1 against the spread this season, with the one loss being a 20-point victory over Buffalo, a game that saw the spread close at 20.5. It's tempting to think perhaps UConn might not cover for the first time in a month, but all of the other factors in this matchup suggest the Huskies will keep rolling. It's almost inevitable that they'll have a close call against a tougher Big East opponent, but I don't see a rebuilding Butler squad being that team. I'll take the Huskies in a spread that's under double digits as of Friday evening.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -8.5
Tennessee at 
Arizona
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object? This age-old question is about to get answered today, as Tennessee travels to Arizona for Saturday's game. Tennessee currently has the best defense in the country while Arizona has the best offense, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings, so this should make for a riveting game.
When looking at how Arizona's offense might play against Tennessee's defense, one thing clearly stands out. Arizona ranks atop the charts in many categories, but the one area where they've had significant problems is their offensive steal rate. The Wildcats are getting their pockets picked at an alarming rate, ranking No. 320 in that category, and that could spell trouble against Tennessee because the Volunteers' defense is stealing the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country.
Looking at the other end of the court, that matchup isn't quite as even. In spite of their 9-1 record, Arizona's defense has been a bit leaky throughout the season, allowing 93 points to Cincinnati, 78 points to Southern, and 77 points to Utah Tech. Perhaps their worse performance came on December 4, when Arizona hosted Cal and conceded 68 points to the Golden Bears. On the surface, this isn't too awful, but California scored its season-high in that game and the Golden Bears are currently 0-11 with arguably the worst offense of any major conference team, ranking abysmally low at No. 318 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Arizona's offense is so great that it's been able to mask its defensive deficiencies, but Tennessee presents its toughest challenge to date.
Tennessee won last year's game in Knoxville, 77-73, and both teams rank above average in roster continuity from last season, per KenPom, suggesting last year's outcome still has some weight. All things considered, Tennessee has a fair chance at winning straight up. I'll take the points in what is likely to be a close game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee +3.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- UCLA -2
- UConn -8.5
- Tennessee +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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