This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Day 3 of March Madness is all ready to go. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Saturday's Round of 32 betting board.
Gonzaga 
vs. Kansas 
Gonzaga put on a show in the Round of 64 by blowing past a 30-win team like it was no big deal. The key to the Bulldogs' success was the same formula they used for multiple decades: elite shooting and rebounding. It sounds simple, but the difference with Gonzaga is that it does these two things better than almost everyone else as shown with victories from 15 of their last 17 games.
Kansas, in contrast, narrowly survived on Thursday after nearly having an epic meltdown against 13-seed Samford. The Jayhawks limped into the tournament losing four of its last five, so this close call was hardly surprising based on its performances the past few weeks.
When Gonzaga has the ball, its elite offensive attack will face a challenging defense, but they're adept at scoring plenty of points. They're also one of the most careful teams in the nation sitting 18th in offensive turnover percentage. Kansas ranks 206th in defensive turnover percentage, so Gonzaga will likely make the most of each possession. The other area where the Bulldogs are great is outside shooting as they've made 36 percent of their shots from behind the arc - the 64th-highest mark, an important note because Kansas has been vulnerable from the perimeter by allowing conference opponents to hit 36 percent of three-pointers, the fourth-highest allowed in the Big 12.
When Kansas has the ball, points will likely be tough to find. The Jayhawks rank 63rd in offensive efficiency and seventh in the Big 12 during conference play, so this is a middling scoring team. The efficiency numbers aren't bad, though the situation looks worse in several key categories. Kansas ranks 157th in offensive turnover percentage, 223rd in offensive steal percentage, and 291st in offensive rebounding. None of these stats are great, but the Jayhawks' struggles with long-range shooting might be the worst. During conference play, they made under 31 percent from deep, the fourth-worst mark in the Big 12. This number is poor enough, and that's before we account for the absence of starting senior Kevin McCullar, who was the team's most productive shooter before suffering what turned out to be a season-ending injury. Before going down, he had attempted the most three-point shots on the team while knocking down 34 percent. Now, the Jayhawks have just one player on the roster who's drained at least 32 percent of threes with a minimum of 70 shot attempts. Gonzaga held opposing teams to 45 percent on shots from inside the arc, the 11th-best percentage allowed among all D1 teams, so the Jayhawks' lack of outside scoring could make all the difference.
This pick comes down to the fact Gonzaga is the better offensive side and its defense matches up well against Kansas. They're also better at avoiding turnovers, collecting offense boards, and shooting the ball. I'm rolling with the Bulldogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -4.5
Michigan State 
vs. North Carolina 
Just as I predicted in my preview for Thursday's opener, Michigan State cruised past Mississippi State without any drama. The backcourt duo of A.J. Hoggard and dynamic star guard Tyson Walker proved to keep the Spartans afloat, along with a solid all-around performance from the rest of the supporting cast. They held Mississippi State to 51 points en route to a comfortable win, no surprise considering Michigan State ranks sixth in defensive efficiency among all D1 teams. This is the same core group of players that came one overtime period away from advancing to the Elite Eight last season following its win over two-seed Marquette to give us a team that has shown it can win multiple tournament games.
North Carolina also enjoyer a comfortable win in its first outing defeating Wagner 90-62. The Tar Heels appear intent on redemption after missing the Big Dance a season ago, putting together a resume that was so impressive it earned a top seed. At the same time, there's a reason why UNC is the fourth of the No. 1s. They lost multiple times to inferior teams, such as Villanova in November, Kentucky in December, Georgia Tech in January, and Syracuse in February, just to name a few. The Tar Heels logged many victories in between. But even still, they're far from perfect as all these defeats reveal.
North Carolina boasts a potent offensive attack, yet Michigan State has all the necessary qualities to generate stops ranking 65th in defensive turnover percentage, 47th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 52nd in two-point field goal percentage allowed. They've also recorded the fifth-best defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten during conference play, another essential stat as UNC is among the best on the offensive glass.
At the other end, the Spartans will face a tough defensive team. But once again, they appear to have the tools needed to come out on top. They seldom turn the ball over with the third-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten. They can pull down offensive boards at key times, ranking 130th in rebounding percentage. And they can shoot with the best of them by knocking down 36 percent from behind the arc. The Spartans have five players who made over 34 percent on at least 58 three-point attempts, giving them many perimeter scoring options.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I'm betting Michigan State will find a way to make this game come down to the final minute. I'm taking the points with the Spartans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +4
Texas 
vs. Tennessee
Texas got the job done in the first round, though it's fair to say 56 points will likely not be enough on Saturday. The Longhorns have respectable efficiency numbers, ranking top-40 on both ends of the court, yet they've also been extremely inconsistent having only won back-to-back games twice during 2024 while never getting more than two straight in the conference. The Longhorns' resume is riddled with bad losses, including West Virginia, at home to UCF, and by double-digits to UConn, Marquette, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, and Kansas.
Tennessee, on the other hand, have taken at least four consecutive outings four times this season, collecting an extensive list of impressive victories over Wisconsin (road), Illinois, Kentucky (road), Alabama (sweep), and Auburn. All these opponents are among the best scoring teams in the country, further underscoring the strength of Tennessee's defense in case there was any doubt.
Whenever Texas encountered an elite defensive club, the outcome rarely ended well. The Longhorns faced a team ranked in the top-20 of defensive efficiency on eight occasions, and only won in just one by a point win over Cincinnati. On paper, they're a sharp-shooting team. However, they rely extensively on Dylan Disu and Max Abmas for their scoring output. So if an opposing defense can limit the damage from those two, that's when problems arise.
Tennessee has established itself as one of the best defensive teams under head coach Rick Barnes, finishing each of the last three seasons with a top-five defensive efficiency rating. This year's squad is no exception, but still different in that they brought in Dalton Knecht from the transfer portal as an explosive scorer who's dominated so much throughout the year that he currently ranks eighth on KenPom's Player of the Year standings. In addition to having a dynsmic scorer, they're also dangerous offensively thanks to many other traits, including recording the highest offensive and defensive turnover percentages in the SEC during conference play. The Vols sit 64th in offensive rebounding percentage while the Longhorns are 222nd on defense. Tennessee also sits 130th in free throw attempt rate compared to 225th on defense for Texad. And lastly, but certainly not least, Tennessee is making 35 percent of shots from behind the arc with Texas allowing league opponents 37 percent of three-pointers, the worst percentage in the Big 12.
The Vols appear poised to advance to the Sweet 16. The Longhorns repeatedly got blown out when facing the toughest teams on the schedule and they haven't done anything in recent weeks to suggest Saturday's outcome will be any different. Someone like Max Abmas may get hot and keep the game close, but I'm betting Rick Barnes will have the right defensive game plan to keep him contained. I'm laying the points with Tennessee.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee -6.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Gonzaga -4.5
- Michigan State +4
- Tennessee -6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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