This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
As college basketball fans have come to expect, the Pac-12 returns to action on Thursday's college hoops slate. Steve Peralta previews some of the matchups and offers his best bets of the evening.
USC at 
Colorado
USC has put up a ton of points in recent weeks, although a closer look reveals most of the damage has come at home. In eight conference games at the Galen Center, the Trojans are averaging 78 points per game, but when on the road, the scoring output plummets to 67 points per game against Pac-12 opponents. In its most recent road trip, up in Oregon, USC barely managed 60 points in a crushing loss in Eugene, although the more alarming result was in the following game, when the Trojans lost to Oregon State, 61-58. Losing the game was bad enough, but failing to score 60 points against the third-worst defense in the Pac-12 (according to KenPom) is hard to spin or rationalize. Considering these recent results on the road, and the defensive prowess of Thursday's opponent, it's likely that USC won't be scoring too many points up in the Rocky Mountains.
Colorado has had an up-and-down season, and most of its highs have come courtesy of its stout defense. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in KenPom's defensive efficiency standings, and they also have the second-highest rating among Pac-12 teams -- a consistently sturdy defense without any major weaknesses. The same cannot be said on the other end of the court, where Colorado has been plagued with inconsistent scoring all season. During its most recent home stand, Colorado defeated California by a final score of 59-46, a decent margin of victory, although there's still cause for concern. Based on efficiency, the Golden Bears are by far the worst defensive team in the Pac-12, so the fact that Colorado couldn't muster up more points at home is somewhat concerning. In any event, Colorado's defense is actually playing significantly better at home. In seven home conference games, Colorado is holding conference foes to an average of 54 points per game, but the number shoots up to 70 points per game allowed when traveling on the road against Pac-12 opponents. This has caused consistently low point totals in Boulder. In conference matchups in Boulder this season, games are averaging 120 combined points per game, and the total has gone over 140 points in just two instances (out of seven games).
Last season when these two teams met in Boulder, USC prevailed by a final score of 61-58. And in the first meeting earlier this season back on January 12, USC won in another defensive-oriented game, 68-61. Colorado is favored in Thursday's matchup, so I'm not confident USC will pull off the victory, but either way I'm trusting it will be a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 140.5
Washington State at 
Stanford
Washington State has looked extra sharp when playing at home this season, although it's not quite the same team when playing on the road. During conference play, the Cougars' average point differential is plus-six points per game, but on the road, the average point differential drops to minus-eight points per game, a 14-point swing. Furthermore, Washington State has lost six of seven conference road games this year, losing by at least six points in five of those losses. As it turns out, the Cougars' lone road win came at Arizona, although I would be remiss if I didn't point out that this game was easily Arizona's worst performance of the season. The Wildcats made 31 percent of their field goal attempts in that game, their lowest mark of the season, including 4-of-25 from behind the arc. Safe to say, if that game got replayed tomorrow, the outcome would be entirely different.
Stanford, meanwhile, appeared lifeless up until the middle of January but has since played much better in recent weeks. Since January 19, Stanford has gone 6-4 and has collected wins over Oregon, Utah and Arizona over that stretch. The Cardinal recently got swept when traveling to Southern California, although this is a typical occurrence for visiting teams this season. Either way, Stanford has played up to its potential on a pair of occasions this month, first at Utah, winning 78-72, then at home against Arizona, winning 88-79. Stanford's offense has finally found some rhythm, and it now ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in efficiency during league competition. The Cardinal also rank third in effective field goal percentage and first in three-point field goal percentage, giving us a team that clearly knows how to find open shooters and knock down shots.
The last time these two teams played, back on January 14, Washington State won by a single point, 60-59, in a game that came down to the final possession. Stanford had multiple shots at making the go-ahead basket in the closing seconds but missed all three opportunities. The Cardinal also held a halftime lead, so they certainly played well enough to win it, even though the game was in Pullman. Now that the rematch is back in California, my money is on Stanford avenging its previous loss. Given a short line, I'll take the Cardinal in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -1.5
UCLA at 
Utah
Teams that are led by head coach Mick Cronin have consistently posted elite defensive numbers, and this year's UCLA squad has nearly reached the pinnacle. The Bruins now have the second-highest defensive efficiency rating in the country, per KenPom's standings, and they haven't shown any signs of letting up any time soon. UCLA has held opponents to under 65 points in its last six games, and, perhaps more impressively, has allowed more than 66 points in just one conference game this season, a 77-point output by USC back on January 26. Additionally, UCLA has held conference opponents below 60 points in nine of 16 games, further underscoring its great consistency throughout the season. It's also worth noting, Thursday's opponent is already included in that tally, as the Utes were held to 49 points at UCLA in the first meeting back on January 12 at Pauley Pavilion.
Utah's defense might not be at the level of UCLA's, but it's no pushover, far from it. Among all D1 teams, Utah ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed, eighth in three-point field goal percentage allowed and 12th in two-point field goal percentage allowed. This is clearly a team that plays with a high degree of defensive intensity all over the court. And while the defense has been great, the offense has been mediocre, at best. In the same aforementioned categories, Utah ranks eighth among Pac-12 teams during conference play, easily the weaker part of the team.
Last year, when these two teams met in Salt Lake City, UCLA won in a defensive grinder, 63-58. Based on how these teams have played this season, I'm betting we can expect a similar outcome. I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 131.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- USC at Colorado - Under 140.5
- Stanford -1.5
- UCLA at Utah - Under 131.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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