This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Three more college basketball best bets are live for Tuesday's slate of games. Steve Peralta offers picks for a night featuring several of the nation's top-ranked teams.
Illinois vs 
Texas
These two teams are all about defense. Illinois has established itself as an elite defensive team in recent years under coach Brad Underwood, ranking in the top-35 of adjusted defensive efficiency each of the past three years, with the current team at No. 12 (per KenPom). In the same vein, Texas coach Chris Beard has earned a similar reputation, and including his days with Texas Tech, has led his team to a top-20 finish in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. This year's Texas squad has a chance at becoming his best defensive team yet, ranking third-highest in adjusted efficiency.
On the other end of the court, both teams are highly proficient in scoring when it comes to overall efficiency numbers, but both teams exhibit some signs that suggest they'll have issues in today's matchup. First, both teams struggle from the charity stripe, making 67 percent of their free throw attempts, well below the D1 average. The shooting issue also plagues Texas from beyond the arc, as the Longhorns are making under 29 percent of three-point attempts, also well below the D1 average. On the other hand, the Fighting Illini are fine with three-point shooting but are committing offensive turnovers at an alarming rate, ranking No. 260 among all D1 teams. This will likely come into play in today's game, with Texas' defense causing turnovers at the 11th-highest rate.
Both teams prefer playing fast on offense, so it's always possible we see extra possessions and therefore additional scoring, but ultimately I'm betting on defense. These two teams play with tremendous intensity when defending the basket. I'll take the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 140.5
James Madison at 
Virginia
On paper, Virginia is significantly better than James Madison on both offense and defense when it comes to adjusted efficiency, but a closer look suggests this matchup might be more even than it appears.
Virginia is top-20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency and remains unbeaten this season, but the Cavaliers haven't played flawlessly, particularly in their most recent two games. First, they escaped Michigan with a two-point victory on Nov. 29 after trailing a significant portion of the game. Then, later that week, Virginia overcame a halftime deficit to beat Florida State by five points. James Madison is significantly better than Florida State in nearly every category on both offense and defense, so the Dukes have a decent chance at keeping the game within striking distance.
James Madison is projected to lose by double-digits but has several traits that make it well-equipped to stay in the game. The Dukes have the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in the country, the sixth-highest made three-point field goal percentage and the 32nd-highest made two-point percentage. Defensively, James Madison is a scrappy bunch, causing turnovers at the 31st-highest rate among all D1 teams.
Out of seven opponents faced this season, Virginia has only won by more than 12 points against two, Monmouth and Maryland Eastern Shore. Both of these teams are in the bottom 40 of overall adjusted efficiency, effectively two of the worst teams in D1 basketball (per KenPom). Considering James Madison's scoring capabilities and Virginia's penchant for shortening games with a slow tempo, the Dukes are a good bet to keep this game within double digits. I'll take the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: James Madison +11
Iowa vs 
Duke
Duke has only lost two games this season and the opponents in both games shared one thing in common -- a top-30 defense. Kansas and Purdue both rank top-30 in adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom), and both held Duke to under 65 points. In contrast, Duke also played Xavier and Ohio State, two teams that rank top-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency while also ranking below the top 70 in defense. Duke defeated both Xavier and Ohio State by at least seven points, and considering Iowa ranks No. 76 in adjusted defensive efficiency, right in between the aforementioned opponents, it stands to reason that Duke shouldn't have too much trouble putting up points in today's matchup.
Additionally, Iowa faces significant a challenge on defense when it comes to keeping Duke off the glass. The Blue Devils currently have the second-highest offensive rebounding rate among all D1 teams -- a major dilemma for the Hawkeyes considering they've struggled to keep opponents off the offensive glass, ranking No. 265 in defensive rebounding rate. Defeating a super-talented and large team like Duke is hard enough, giving them second-chance opportunities makes the challenge even more difficult.
All in all, Duke is bigger, more talented and more balanced than Iowa. I'll take the Blue Devils in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -3
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Illinois vs Texas - Under 140.5
- James Madison +11
- Duke -3
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