This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Pivotal matchups once again fill Tuesday's college hoops slate, as several teams on the March bubble get another crack at collecting a resume-building win. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with my last round of picks, here are my predictions for a few intriguing games on the slate.
Baylor 
at BYU 
This is a matchup of two very similar teams. Both are among the best-scoring teams in the nation, ranking top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and both are weaker on defense, ranking outside the top 50 in efficiency. That said, the Cougars do a few things well that should give them a fair shot at defending their home court on Tuesday.
BYU is one of the best shooting teams in the country and it's going against a defense that's given up easy baskets all season long. The Cougars offense is dangerous because it can easily score inside or out without losing any production. BYU has scored 41 percent of its total points from three-point range, the second-highest percentage in the nation, an unsurprising stat given its making 36 percent of shots from behind the arc. When they're not knocking down shots from the perimeter, the Cougars are attacking the paint with similar success, making 57 percent of shots inside the arc against league opponents, the highest percentage in the Big 12. These numbers are key because Baylor has not fared well in these same two categories on the defensive side. The Bears are allowing opponents to make 52 percent of two-point shots, ranked 227th in the nation, and they're allowing conference opponents to make 36 percent from behind the arc, ranked 10th in the Big 12.
At the other end of the court, Baylor has similarly elite offensive numbers as BYU, although the Cougars' defense has held up a bit better in a few categories. One such category is defensive rebounding percentage, where BYU ranks 15th among all D1 teams, an important skill in this matchup because one of Baylor's strengths is offensive rebounding, ranking 19th in that category. Additionally, BYU is holding opponents to under 31 percent from behind the arc, the 32nd-lowest percentage allowed, another important area because Baylor boasts the highest three-point field goal percentage in the nation.
Baylor is undoubtedly a great team, one that's poised to possibly make a run in March, but it's still vulnerable when playing in hostile environments. The Bears have played in just seven total true road games this season, and they lost four of them. The only exceptions were when they won at Oklahoma State (in overtime), Central Florida, and West Virginia -- the three teams that are currently in the cellar of the Big 12 standings. For these reasons, I'm betting that Baylor is going to have a tough time playing up in Utah. I'm laying the points with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -3.5
TCU 
at Texas Tech
Winning on the road is difficult, as most college hoops fans are well aware, but I like TCU's odds of keeping Tuesday's game close for a couple of key reasons.
First, TCU has a massive rebounding advantage in this matchup. When the Horned Frogs have the ball, they are among the best at attacking the offensive glass, ranking 20th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth in the Big 12 during conference play. This is critical because Texas Tech has had trouble with securing defensive boards throughout the season, ranking 235th among all D1 teams in defensive rebounding percentage and second-worst in the Big 12 during conference play. Based on these stats, the Horned Frogs should have plenty of put-back opportunities on Tuesday night.
Second, TCU has improved its shooting over the past couple of months, making 39 percent of its shots from behind the arc since the conference sipped off, the highest percentage in the Big 12. This will likely come into play on Tuesday, as Texas Tech has not been so effective at guarding the perimeter, allowing league opponents to make 36 percent of three-point attempts, the fourth-worst percentage allowed in the conference.
These two teams already met three weeks ago, and the game played out exactly as we might expect based on the above matchup notes. Back in the game on January 30th, TCU won comfortably, 85-78, and it tallied 12 offensive boards compared to four for Texas Tech, and the Horned Frogs also made 11-of-20 shots from behind the arc. Also, for what it's worth, Texas Tech has been playing below expectations lately, failing to cover the spread in five of their last six games, according to Action Network. I'm taking the points with the Horned Frogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU +5.5
Maryland 
at Wisconsin 
Maryland is reeling over the past few weeks, having lost four of its last five games. The record isn't great, but the Terrapins are proving to be among the best defensive teams in the country. They boast the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating among all D1 teams, and they've maintained the same level of play in recent weeks, ranking second in the Big Ten since the conference season tipped off. The underlying numbers during league play are just as good, as Maryland ranks first in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage allowed, two-point field goal percentage allowed, and three-point field goal percentage allowed. The defensive numbers are outstanding, but unfortunately for Maryland, the situation is reversed at the other end of the court.
Maryland is decisively the second-worst offensive team in the Big Ten, with only Rutgers being demonstrably worse. Since the conference season started, Maryland has had the worst three-point field goal percentage in the Big Ten, and it ranks second-worst in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and two-point field goal percentage. It does one thing well, snag offensive rebounds, but this strength is moot against a team like Wisconsin, which happens to have the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten.
Given how Maryland matches up with Wisconsin, it's hard to imagine many points being scored. Maryland is elite defensively, dreadful offensively, and if that's not enough, it plays at the third-lowest tempo in the Big Ten. Add all this up, and we have the perfect recipe for an 'under.' To further help our cause, it's worth pointing out that Wisconsin plays at the slowest tempo in the Big Ten, ranked 321st nationally, so this game is seemingly destined to feature a smaller number of possessions.
Looking at the bottom line, Maryland is an 'under' machine, with the 'under' cashing in six of their last eight games, according to Action Network. I'm betting we'll have another one after Tuesday night. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 130.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- BYU -3.5
- TCU +5.5
- Maryland at Wisconsin - Under 130.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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