This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Tuesday college hoops slate offers another round of several intriguing matchups. Steve Peralta returns to find the most promising prospects. Here are his best bets of the day.
Mississippi State at 
Missouri
Mississippi State is as streaky as they come. The Bulldogs started the season with a perfect 11-0 record, then lost eight of nine games, and now they enter Tuesday having won six of their last seven. The Bulldogs have found most of their success thanks to an elite defense, ranked fifth overall in KenPom's adjusted efficiency standings. This is an impressive mark, although Mississippi State's defense hasn't played as well when just focusing on games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs' defense ranks fourth among SEC teams in defensive efficiency during conference play, so it's clearly not as sharp in the most recent months against familiar opponents.
Mississippi State's real issue, however, is its lack of scoring. The Bulldogs have the second-worst offensive efficiency rating in the SEC since the conference season tipped off, and on top of that, they are also one of the worst three-point shooting and free-throw shooting teams in the country. Mississippi State is making 28 percent of shots from behind the arc, the fifth-lowest percentage in the country. Similarly, it's making under 64 percent of free-throw attempts, ranking No. 348 among all D1 teams. Believe it or not, these numbers have only gotten worse since the conference season started.
Missouri is effectively the opposite of Mississippi State. The Tigers have been relatively steady throughout the season, never losing more than two games in a row at any point, while also collecting quality wins along the wa (Illinois, Arkansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee). Also, Missouri usually beats opponents by outscoring them. The Tigers' offense, ranked ninth overall in the country in adjusted efficiency, is proficient in nearly every aspect of the game. During conference play, Missouri ranks top-two in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, offensive turnover percentage, three-point field goal percentage and three-throw percentage.
While the defense might be a liability, it does do one thing particularly well -- cause turnovers. Missouri has the highest defensive turnover rate and highest steal rate in the SEC during league competition, something that will surely come into play in Tuesday's match-up because Mississippi State has the fourth-highest offensive turnover rate in the SEC.
Mississippi State won the previous matchup between these two teams earlier this month, but Missouri was on the road and played arguably its worst game of the season. The Tigers were held to 32 percent on field goal attempts overall in that game, their second-lowest mark of the season. It's a safe bet that Missouri won't play nearly as badly in the rematch in Columbia. The Tigers have already defeated several elite defenses on multiple occasions, so there's no reason to think they can't do it again. I'm backing the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri -4
Tennessee at 
Texas A&M
Tennessee looked sharp when taking down Alabama nearly a week ago, although that's proving to be the exception when looking at its overall work over the past several weeks. During the month of February, Tennessee has lost four of six games, and one of its wins was a 46-43 home victory over Auburn -- not the most encouraging final score. The Volunteers' defense is still playing well, but the inconsistent scoring is catching up with them down the stretch. Tennessee has failed to score at least 70 points in five of its last six games, and that might be how many points it needs on Tuesday based on how its opponent has been playing.
Texas A&M is among the hottest teams in the country, winning 14 of its last 16 games. When looking at the numbers, it's easy to see why. The Aggies are simply outstanding on both ends of the court. Since the conference season tipped off, Texas A&M ranks top-three in the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making it nearly the best and most balanced team in the SEC, second only to Alabama. Texas A&M is also among the best rebounding teams in the conference, similarly ranking top-three in rebounding rates on both ends, essentially canceling out one of Tennessee's strengths.
Overall, the difference in this matchup comes down to Tennessee's offense and its inconsistent scoring. With the Volunteers playing on the road, it's hard to see that improving in Tuesday's game. Tennessee has lost its last three road games, while Texas A&M hasn't lost a home game in over two months. I'm betting the latter will still hold true after Tuesday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -1
Baylor at 
Kansas State
Baylor started off the conference season with an 0-3 record, raising many question marks at the time, but it has since eliminated nearly all doubts. Following its loss to Kansas State on January 7, Baylor has won 10 of its last 12 games, with both losses coming on the road against two of the best teams in the country in Texas and Kansas. Baylor actually held a 45-32 lead at halftime against the latter, but the Bears couldn't hold it, and the Jayhawks blew by them in the second half.
Despite the 20 minutes of poor play at Allen Fieldhouse, a common occurrence for most visitors, Baylor has been near the top of its game for the past several weeks. In the vaunted Big 12, where many of the most elite defensive teams preside, the Bears rank first in many offensive categories during league competition, namely, offensive efficiency, turnover percentage, three-point field goal percentage and offensive rebounding rate. The latter is very noteworthy because Kansas State has had the worst defensive rebounding rate in the Big 12 since the conference season tipped off, so Baylor should see a substantial number of put-back opportunities and second-chance points.
Kansas State, in contrast, has had trouble stringing together wins over the past several weeks. The Wildcats haven't won back-to-back games in over a month and have lost five of their last eight games overall. Kansas State still has solid efficiency numbers, ranking fifth in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency, although its best performances came early in the conference season. The Wildcats haven't been quite as explosive in recent weeks, failing to score at least 70 points in four of their past five games.
Looking at the bottom line, Baylor is the better team. It has the talent and the program has been near the top of the college hoops world for the past several years. Kansas State is undoubtedly going in the right direction with first-year head coach Jerome Tang, but for this season, my money's on Baylor. It's true that the Bears have been lacking on the defensive end, relatively speaking, although they're still capable of stepping up in big moments. Back in early-December, Baylor held Gonzaga to 63 points, a team that's currently sitting at number one in KenPom's offensive efficiency chart, so the Bears still have defensive potential. Given a short line, I'm taking Baylor in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor -2
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Missouri -4
- Texas A&M -1
- Baylor -2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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