This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference action continues from all around the country on Wednesday's college hoops slate. Here are my picks for a few noteworthy matchups.
Michigan State 
at Penn State 
On paper, the Spartans are the superior team, but the Nittany Lions do a few things well that should give them a fair shot at defending their home court on Wednesday.
First, when Michigan State has the ball, its best method of scoring is outside shooting, posting the second-highest three-point field goal percentage in the Big Ten during conference play. As it turns out, Penn State's defense is best at guarding the perimeter, holding opponents to 31 percent from behind the arc, the 40th-best percentage allowed in the nation. The Spartans aren't as effective inside the paint, making under 50 percent of their shots from inside the arc against Big Ten opponents, so the Nittany Lions' defensive strength will likely play an important role in determining the outcome.
Second, when Penn State has the ball, it's strongest at attacking the paint, making 51 percent of shots inside the arc against league opponents, the fifth-highest percentage in the Big Ten. Michigan State, on the other hand, was stout on the inside earlier in the season, but it's been an area of concern for the team since the conference season tipped off. The Spartans are allowing Big Ten opponents to make 50 percent of two-pointers, the fifth-highest allowed in the league.
Additionally, the Nittany Lions are also likely to win the battle from the charity stripe. They attack the rim more often than not, ranking seventh in the Big Ten in free-throw attempt rate during league play, while Michigan State's defense ranks ninth in the same category. On the other end of the court, the Spartans rank last in the Big Ten in offensive free-throw attempt rate since the conference season tipped off, giving Penn State the foul shot advantage playing in both directions.
I would be remiss if I didn't acknowledge the outcome of the first game between these two teams. They met at the Breslin Center in early January, and Michigan State won by 30 points. The margin was brutal, but it's worth noting that Penn State easily had its worst shooting performance of the season, somehow going 3-of-29 from behind the arc. Penn State is making 33 percent of three-pointers during conference season, so it's reasonable to think they'll shoot significantly better in the rematch. The Nittany Lions have played better in recent games, as evidenced by its current four-game winning streak against the spread, according to Action Network. All things considered, I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State +3.5
Xavier 
at Seton Hall
Xavier stumbled out of the gate when conference season tipped off, losing three of its first four games. It has since played much better, winning six of nine while earning key wins over Providence, Butler, St. John's, and Villanova.
Seton Hall, meanwhile, shot out of the gate when the conference season commenced, defeating Connecticut and Marquette, but it has since fallen back to the rest of the pack after losing four of its last six games. The only two games it won during this recent stretch came against DePaul and Georgetown, so Wednesday's game will serve as a pivotal test for the Pirates.
In comparing these teams side-by-side, not many areas stand out. That said, Xavier has consistently played better on both ends of the court throughout the season. Aside from simply ranking higher in efficiency, Xavier is much better at taking care of the ball. Seton Hall has had severe issues with sloppiness throughout the season and the problem has only solidified during conference play, recording the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Big East. The Musketeers, on the other hand, have the fourth-best offensive turnover percentage in the conference.
Xavier is also better at shooting the ball. The Musketeers are making 35 percent of shots from behind the arc compared to 32 percent for Seton Hall. The Pirates rarely attempt three-pointers, posting the lowest three-point attempt rate among Big East teams during conference play, so the Musketeers will most likely have more points come from long range. It's also worth mentioning that Xavier is strong inside the paint, holding opponents to 47 percent on shots inside the arc, the 57th-lowest percentage among all D1 teams. This further makes the task more challenging for Seton Hall considering it's a one-dimensional offensive attack.
The last time these two teams tangled in late December, Xavier won decisively, 74-54. We can't necessarily expect another blowout, but I'm betting the Musketeers find a way to get it done on the road. I'm going with Xavier in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +2
Oregon State 
at Arizona State 
The Beavers are a tough team to beat at home, as Arizona found out when it lost on January 25th, but they are a completely different team on the road. Oregon State is winless away from Corvallis, losing all nine games by an average of 19 points per game while mustering 60 points per game. Wherever they play, though, the results haven't been good when you add it all up. During conference play, Oregon State has the worst offensive efficiency in the Pac-12 and also the worst defensive efficiency.
The Sun Devils, in contrast, got swept in their last home stand against the Bay area schools, so Wednesday represents an opportunity to build upon their significant win at Utah on this past Saturday. The recent losses didn't look great, but then again, Arizona State had already defeated the same teams up in northern California to tip off the conference season, in addition to sweeping the mountain teams at home, so this team still has the potential to play well despite the recent skid.
I like Arizona State's chances of covering on Wednesday for one simple reason. Turnovers. The Sun Devils have the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Pac-12 during conference play, while the Beavers have the second-worst offensive turnover percentage in the league. Arizona State also holds an advantage playing in the other direction, boasting the best offensive turnover percentage in the Pac-12, with Oregon State ranking sixth in defensive turnovers.
For these reasons, I'm laying the points with Arizona State.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State -7
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Penn State +3.5
- Xavier +2
- Arizona State -7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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