This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Major conference tournament action heats up on Wednesday, as many more teams join the fray. Here are my predictions for three of the games tipping off later in the day.
N.C. State vs. Syracuse 
The Wolfpack survived the first round of the ACC tournament after outscoring Louisville, 94-85, in a high-scoring game as I predicted in yesterday's article. Now, unfortunately for NC State, it has to face a much better team that's substantially better at both ends of the court. The Wolfpack looked fine playing against the worst team in the conference, but we can't forget, that this is still the same team that ended the regular season by losing seven of its last 10 games, including the last four consecutive.
Syracuse, in contrast, has won five of its last seven games, including wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech. And based on how the Orange matches up against its opponent on Wednesday, I'm betting Syracuse will advance in the ACC tournament.
When Syracuse has the ball, it has a major advantage in the form of free throw attempts. Throughout the conference season, the Orange established itself as the most physically aggressive offensive team in the ACC, recording the highest free-throw attempt rate in the league. This is pertinent because NC State has severe problems with fouling, logging the second-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate in the same period.
The Orange played the Wolfpack two times this year and swept the series, winning at home, 77-65, before winning on the road, 87-83. The first game was hardly competitive, as Syracuse built a 38-22 lead at halftime and never looked back. The Orange again built a massive halftime lead in the rematch, 55-40, although it seems that home court allowed the Wolfpack to make the game interesting in the closing minutes. In both instances, Syracuse went to the foul line frequently, logging 32 free throw attempts in the first game and 19 attempts in the second game on the road.
Overall, Syracuse has demonstrated itself to be the better team over the season. It has several noteworthy wins over the likes of Oregon, Pittsburgh (sweep), and North Carolina, and the Orange have already shown it matches up well against the Wolfpack on multiple occasions. For these reasons, I'm taking Syracuse in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Syracuse -1.5
Kansas State 
vs. Texas 
Kansas State is the prototypical 'under' team. The Wildcats are among the best defensive teams in the nation, recording the 19th-best defensive efficiency rating while simultaneously playing lackluster at the offensive end. These traits solidified throughout the conference season, with Kansas State ranking fourth in the league in defensive efficiency, but third-worst in offensive efficiency. And of course, the 'under' is further assisted by the fact that Kansas State prefers playing at a slower pace, ranking 194th in the nation in overall adjusted tempo, and 204th in average offensive possession length.
Texas, on the other hand, is usually better at scoring points, ranking 20th in offensive efficiency compared to 54th in defensive efficiency. That said, it seems that points will be at a premium on Wednesday based on how the Longhorns match up against the Wildcats. During conference play, Texas recorded the highest effective field goal percentage in the league, but it will meet its match as Kansas State recorded the lowest effective field goal percentage allowed. Similarly, Kansas State's defense outranks or is equal to Texas' offense in several other important categories such as free-throw attempt rate, three-point field goal percentage allowed, two-point percentage allowed, and block percentage.
When these two teams previously clashed in Austin, back on Feb. 19, the game played out like a grinding, defensive struggle, with Texas ultimately winning, 62-56. I'm betting we'll see a similar game unfold in the rematch. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 143.5
Michigan 
vs. Penn State 
The Wolverines' season can't end soon enough. Michigan enters Wednesday on an eight-game skid, an awful streak that's made worse by the fact that the Wolverines are also getting blown out in every game, losing by at least eight points in every game during this stretch. And unfortunately for Michigan, it's been the same story for the past couple of months. The Wolverines lost 17 of 20 conference games, and only two of the losses were under five-point margins. Also, if you follow trends, I should note that Michigan has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight, according to Action Network. And if we go further back, the Wolverines have covered the spread in just three total games since the start of the New Year.
Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off a resounding win in its regular season finale, dropping Maryland by a final score of 85-69. The Nittany Lions posted a respectable conference record of 9-11, which isn't pretty, although winning nine games in the Big Ten is nothing to be ashamed of. Penn State has also covered the spread in four of its last five games, per Action Network, further underscoring its recent upward trendline.
In comparing these teams against each other, it's no surprise to find that Penn State has a massive advantage at both ends of the court. During the conference season, the Nittany Lions were ranked 10th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, and they're facing by far the worst defense in the league. Michigan ranked 193rd in defensive efficiency among all D1 teams, easily last in the conference both before and during league play.
At the other end of the court, Michigan is marginally better, logging the second-worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten. The biggest problem, however, is its sloppiness with the ball. The Wolverines have the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten, a major problem in any game, and it is compounded by the fact that Penn State's defense has the second-highest defensive turnover percentage in the league.
Penn State hosted Michigan at the Palestra in Philadelphia in early January and won, 79-73, after promptly erasing a 10-point halftime deficit. As one might expect given the aforementioned note, Penn State had a gigantic advantage in turnovers, committing just seven compared to 19 for Michigan. Considering how the season has played out for the Wolverines, it's hard to imagine them rallying and magically playing better overnight. Then again, we can't rule anything out in college basketball. Either way, I'm going with Penn State in this matchup and laying the points with the Nittany Lions.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State -7
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Syracuse -1.5
- Kansas State vs. Texas - Under 143.5
- Penn State -7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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