This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Several contenders take the court on Wednesday's college hoops slate, many on the road in tough environments. Here are my predictions for a few notable matchups.
Villanova 
at Seton Hall 
The Wildcats are heating up, right in time for the Big Dance. Villanova has now won six of its last eight games, a noteworthy stretch by itself, but the Wildcats are dominating opponents as well, winning each game by a double-digit margin. And perhaps most impressively, Villanova has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games, according to Action Network.
Seton Hall, meanwhile, has won five of its last eight games, although two of the wins came against DePaul and Georgetown, two teams that are a combined 0-36 against the rest of the Big East, so it still has some work to do before it punches its ticket for the Big Dance. The Pirates defeated Connecticut and Marquette at home at the start of the conference season, although they lost all four of their most challenging non-conference games, jeopardizing their potential ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
When comparing these teams against each other, the biggest advantage goes to Villanova's defense. The Wildcats have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big East during conference play, and they're going against a Pirates offense that ranks third-worst in the league in the same period. Additionally, Villanova can neutralize Seton Hall's best skill. The Wildcats also rank first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage, a critical note because the Pirates' best offensive trait is collecting offensive boards, ranking second-best in the Big East in offensive rebounding percentage.
The other end of the court features a relatively even matchup. Villanova's offense has the sixth-highest efficiency rating in the league during conference play, and it's facing a Seton Hall defense that has the sixth-highest defense in the same period. The Wildcats' efficiency number isn't the best, although they're a well-rounded unit otherwise. They rank first in the league in offensive turnover percentage and free-throw percentage, and fourth in effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point percentage, all ranks that are equal to or better than the equivalent standing for Seton Hall's defense.
These two teams faced off nearly a month ago in Philadelphia, and the game wasn't competitive. Villanova jumped out to a 39-27 lead at halftime and kept its foot on the pedal, winning by a final score of 80-54. As one might imagine given the aforementioned note, Seton Hall tallied just four offensive boards in the game, their lowest mark of the season. Based on these teams' overall resumes, recent performances, and how they match up against each other, I like Villanova's odds of earning another win on Saturday. I'm taking the Wildcats in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +1.5
Houston 
at UCF
Houston is coming off its worst defensive performance of the season, conceding a season-high 85 points at Oklahoma on this past Saturday. Before this game, the Cougars' defense, decisively the best in the nation according to KenPom, had not allowed over 80 points in a game all season. It's hard to imagine an elite defense having two massive letdowns in back-to-back games. This is especially true when factoring in who they're playing on Wednesday.
Central Florida has had plenty of highlights during its first run in the Big 12, like when it defeated Kansas, 65-60, in its first home game of the conference season. That said, the Knights have only won six league games up to this point due to one gigantic flaw, their offense. Central Florida easily has the worst offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12, and it's struggled in nearly every area possible. During conference play, UCF ranks last in the league in effective field goal percentage, two-point field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and fourth-worst in turnover percentage.
Considering this massive mismatch, it's no surprise to see that the Cougars smothered the Knights, 57-42, when these two teams previously clashed in Houston back on January 20. Not much has changed since this outcome, so I'm betting we'll see another tight, defensive struggle on Wednesday. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 130.5
Tennessee 
at South Carolina 
These two teams previously met in Knoxville back on January 30, and South Carolina pulled off the improbable upset, winning 63-59. This remains Tennessee's only home loss of the season, giving the Gamecocks an illustrious resume-building victory.
In stacking these teams against each other, it's easy to see how South Carolina emerged victorious in their last encounter. Tennessee is among the best scoring teams in the SEC, recording the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the league during conference season, but it's facing a formidable challenge in the form of South Carolina. The Gamecocks have the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the SEC during the same period, while ranking top three in several other defensive categories such as effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding percentage, defensive free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage allowed.
When playing in the other direction, South Carolina will undoubtedly have a challenge going against an elite defense, but it does a few things well on offense that should help its cause on Wednesday. The Gamecocks rank seventh in the SEC in efficiency, not great although certainly not bad, either. They attack from the perimeter more than most teams, with three-pointers accounting for 34 percent of their total points, the second-highest percentage in the SEC. They also boast the highest assist rate on field goals in the conference, underscoring the unselfish nature of the team.
It's tough to bet against a team like Tennessee, but then again, betting on South Carolina has been money for the past couple of months. Since the start of the New Year, against SEC teams, the Gamecocks have covered the spread in 11 of 16 games, according to Action Network. I'm betting they'll have a 12th after Wednesday. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Carolina +5.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Villanova +1.5
- Houston at UCF - Under 130.5
- South Carolina +5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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