This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Big 12/SEC Challenge tips off on Saturday, and Steve Peralta is here to break down some of the marquee matchups. Here are his best bets for the day.
TCU at 
Mississippi State
TCU is having an incredible season, on track for its best regular season finish in over 20 years. The Horned Frogs are currently 16-4 and the record is hard-earned. They have already collected seven quality victories out of 10 opportunities, per KenPom, resulting in a thoroughly battle-tested squad. TCU has shown it's capable of beating any team in any venue, having already defeated the previous two national champions on their own home courts. TCU won at Baylor on Jan. 4, 88-87, and then just a week ago crushed Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, 83-60. Furthermore, TCU has been competitive in all but one game this season, with three of its losses coming by a combined seven points. In short, this team is going to be an extremely tough out once tournament time rolls around.
Mississippi State, on the other hand, is in a tailspin. The Bulldogs started the season 11-0, but their stock has since taken a nosedive, losing eight of their last nine games. To be fair, Mississippi State has played Alabama and Tennessee twice in that span, but it's still hard to excuse its loss to Drake and its eight-point loss to Georgia. In total, Mississippi State has had 10 opportunities to earn a quality win, per KenPom, and it only won two of them, with both coming back in November.
Looking at how these two teams compare against each other, both are elite defensively, but TCU's offense has played substantially better than Mississippi State's. During conference play, TCU has the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12, including the highest two-point field goal percentage, making 54 percent of shot attempts inside the arc. This is bad news for the Bulldogs, as they've had trouble defending inside the arc, allowing SEC opponents to make over 50 percent of their two-point shot attempts. Not great for the Bulldogs' defense, but the outlook is even worse for the offense. Since conference season started, Mississippi State has the second-worst offensive efficiency rating among SEC teams, the second-lowest effective field goal percentage, the worst free-throw percentage and is making 24 percent of shot attempts from behind the arc, by far the lowest percentage in the SEC. And on top of all that, TCU has the best defensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 during conference season.
Anything can happen in any single game, but in the long run, these two teams aren't close to being on the same level. TCU is 11-4 against the spread in its last 15 games, while Mississippi State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games. Given a short line, I'm taking TCU every time.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU -2
Florida at 
Kansas State
Florida is on a decent run over the past few weeks, winning five of its last six games. That being said, all five of its wins came against SEC teams that don't currently have a winning conference record, so only time will tell if Florida has truly turned a corner after starting the season with a questionable record. Prior to going on this run, Florida was sitting at 7-7 and had lost all seven opportunities at earning a quality win, per KenPom. The Gators look slightly better now after playing against weaker league competition, although their offense is still a gigantic liability. In its recent game against Texas A&M on Jan. 18, Florida put up a meager total of 12 points in the first half. Saturday's opponent is better than Texas A&M in efficiency on both ends of the court, so the Gators will surely have their work cut out for them.
Kansas State, meanwhile, is proving itself to be a dark horse contender for high stakes late into the season. First-year head coach Jerome Tang has the Wildcats playing at a level they haven't seen in several years. Kansas State has already defeated the likes of Texas, Baylor and Kansas, so the ceiling for this team is incredibly high. Its most impressive win came on Jan. 3 in Austin, when Kansas State dropped 116 points on Texas, a feat that's hard to ignore considering the Longhorns' long track record of defensive excellence. Kansas State is playing even better at home, still unbeaten while defeating conference opponents by an average of 6 points per game. Furthermore, Kansas State has continually improved throughout the season, covering the spread in 10 of 12 games since December 6.
All in all, these two teams aren't too far apart when looking at KenPom's overall efficiency standings, but a closer look reveals that one is not like the other. Kansas State has already defeated several great teams, while Florida has struggled in similar situations for most of the season. The line in Saturday's game isn't very short, but Kansas State has already defeated conference opponents by six-plus points in three of four occasions, so the Wildcats shouldn't have too much trouble covering assuming they play up to their standards. I'm taking Kansas State.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas State -5
Kansas at 
Kentucky
Kansas is on a three-game skid, its longest losing streak since January 2021. What's more remarkable, Kansas hasn't lost four straight games in a single season since before 2002. The Jayhawks will need to win if they want to avoid a lowlight that hasn't happened in over two decades. It's worth noting, however, that their recent three-game stretch was arguably the most difficult slate of games they'll have all season. Kentucky isn't much easier, although the Wildcats are ranked lower than the previous three opponents in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency standings. Prior to these past three games, Kansas was 16-1 and had won 11 of 12 games that qualified as a quality win, per KenPom. Since that moment, Kanas lost by a point in overtime at Kansas State, then lost to TCU and Baylor. All things considered, this current losing streak will look like a small bump in the road by the end of the season.
In contrast, Kentucky is now riding a four-game win streak since hitting rock-bottom not too long ago. Back on Jan. 10, Kentucky lost a home game to South Carolina, dropping the Wildcats to 10-6 and 1-3 in the conference. South Carolina is by far the worst team in the SEC, based on efficiency numbers, so the loss was alarming, to say the least. Kentucky rebounded by winning at Tennessee in its next matchup, so all is not lost for the Wildcats. Prior to defeating Tennessee, Kentucky had lost five of six games that would've qualified as a quality win, per KenPom, with its only win coming against Michigan on a neutral court. What's worse, Kentucky lost all five games by nine-plus points, ultimately not very competitive against the best teams it faced. Kentucky's primary issue this season has been its defense, which is ranked 10th in efficiency among SEC teams during conference play. Kansas is a great offensive team, so Kentucky will need its defense to step up if it wants to keep its win streak going.
Winning in Rupp Arena won't be easy, but Kansas has plenty of talent and coaching to get the job done. The Jayhawks have earned a quality victory almost a dozen times this season, so there's no reason to think they won't pull it off once again. On the flipside for Kentucky, the Wildcats haven't really had any impressive performances other than the one game against Tennessee. Ultimately, I'm trusting the team that's more consistent and much better on defense. I'm going with the Jayhawks in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas +2.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- TCU -2
- Kansas State -5
- Kansas +2.5
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