This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
What's the best part of writing about college basketball? March Madness. What's the worst part of writing about college basketball? Predicting March Madness. Everyone wants advice in March. "You watch all year, you must have some incredible insights!" The truth is, I don't always even win the bracket pool among my neighbors or law school friends. Let's be honest; your boss who couldn't name one player on Connecticut or pick Zach Edey out of a lineup has a better shot at winning.
That's what the Madness brings; you're bombarded with statistics, formulas, diagrams, depth charts and "gut feelings". And, after all that time spent crunching numbers and doing research, your spouse who picked the games by color ends up with a better bracket than you. Or your four-year-old son picks No. 16 UMBC to beat No. 1 Virginia. Yes, that actually happened.
But fear not, my friends. There is hope for us yet. All hail, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel". The following five rules have been passed down for eons. These tenets have been collected over the years, revised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. I don't always pick the Final Four correctly, but when I do, these are my guidelines. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. I'm begging you; please do not pick all four No. 1 seeds to make it to the Final Four. First of all, how is that fun? Secondly, the numbers do not back up that "strategy" anyway. The only time since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just four times in the same year in the modern era. Last year, none of the four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. I'm looking at you again, Purdue and Houston.
2. If you don't like a higher-seeded squad, pick it to go out as soon as reasonably possible. So, if you don't believe in, say, North Carolina, pick the Tar Heels to lose once they get past the No. 16 seed. You'll be the only one who picks that game correctly, and even if it's an incorrect selection, you wouldn't have had UNC going that far anyway.
3. There are no bragging rights for picking a No. 10 over a No. 7 seed, or a No. 9 over a No. 8 seed. These are not upsets. All those teams are basically even. If you need proof, take a look at some of the betting lines for these games. Take bigger risks! Even the 11-6 matchup is starting to not feel like an upset anymore. And forget about 12-5, which will be explored in the next rule.
4. While we're on the subject of upsets, pick at least one 12-5 trap game. The gap between conferences appears to be shrinking. Soon you're going to need to pick that Cinderella darling seeded 13 or lower to truly be able to pat yourself on the back for an upset. In 32 of 38 years since the tournament expanded, at least one No. 12 seed has dispatched of a No. 5 seed. In fact, historically, the No. 12 seed wins about 35 percent of the time versus the No. 5 seed. And it did not happen last year. That makes it even more likely that a 12-5 upset will occur this time around.
5. Pick at least one seed lower than a 10 to make the Sweet 16. In 2023, Princeton made the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed. Besides, I'd rather pick the games by which mascot would win in a fight than pick all favorites.
Now that you're primed to fill out that winning bracket, let's take a more in-depth look at the regions.
MIDWEST REGION
The Purdue Boilermakers grab a No. 1 seed for the second-straight year. Improved guard play to go along with reigning Player of the Year Zach Edey up front has the Boilermakers thinking differently this time around, but the doubters remain. They lost to the No. 16 seed in 2023, the No. 15 seed in 2022, and the No. 13 seed in 2021. Purdue is looking to make its first Final Four since 1980. The Boilermakers may have the easiest path of all the No. 1 seeds in the tourney, though No. 2 Tennessee has flamethrower Dalton Knecht, who hit the 30-point mark in seven outings this season, including a 40-piece in the regular season finale against Kentucky.
Meanwhile, you might mistake the Samford Bulldogs for Cinderella when all is said and done. The Bulldogs are a polished, high-scoring squad led by junior forward Achor Achor and former Utah (and Utah State) point guard Rylan Jones. They'll face a disappointing Kansas squad that has battled the injury bug this season and shockingly finished tied for fifth in the Big 12 in the regular season. Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies could be a handful for Purdue in the second round if they can defeat TCU in the first round. The Mountain West received an impressive six bids in the tournament, and deservedly so. Do not sleep on the Mountain West, especially after San Diego State went to the title game just a season ago.
SOUTH REGION
Duke and Kentucky are the blue bloods in this region, but oddly enough not the top two seeds. That honor belongs to Houston and Marquette, respectively. The Cougars possess the top defense in the country, along with an experienced floor general in the form of Jamal Shead, who has been to at least the Sweet 16 in each of his first three seasons with the program. Meanwhile, Marquette will need its offensive catalyst, Tyler Kolek, to be healthy for the Golden Eagles to move on deep into March. Kolek missed the last six games with an oblique issue but will supposedly be ready by the end of this week.
The upset special for this region is No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin. Yes, the classic 12-5 trap game. The Dukes were ranked in the top 25 for some of this season, winning their first 14 games of the year. They also won their final 13 games, punctuated by the Sun Belt Tournament Championship. JMU finished with a stout 31-3 record, averaging over 84 points per clash. Junior Terrence Edwards has been the catalyst for the offense, leading the team in scoring and dishing. On the interior, senior and BC transfer T.J. Bickerstaff has been a dominant force, tallying 13.4 points and 8.5 rebounds per tilt. Noah Freidel has been better in his second season after transferring from South Dakota State, including shooting over 37 percent from three-point range. The Dukes can score with anyone and are no strangers to winning. They will not be afraid of the big stage, and were an elite rebounding squad this season, something the Badgers struggled with immensely. The Badgers need to get off to a fast start; if not, the Dukes may simply pull away early and not allow Wisconsin to recover.
WEST REGION
In another example of the committee ignoring geography entirely, the North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 seed in the West region. Arizona is the No. 2 seed. The Wildcats shockingly have not been to the Final Four since 2001. Arizona is 0-5 in the Elite 8 since that time.
There are several dangerous lower seeds here, including No. 7 Dayton, No. 11 New Mexico and whoever wins the matchup between Mississippi State and Michigan State. Another 12-5 upset could be in the cards here with 29-4 Grand Canyon taking on Saint Mary's. The knock on the Gaels (and Gonzaga) is that they have not played the rigorous conference schedule of some of the bigger schools. The Lopes beat San Diego State earlier this year and took South Carolina, another tournament squad, to the limit.
EAST REGION
The No. 1 overall seed in the tournament resides in the East in the form of Connecticut, but the selection committee did the Huskies no favors. UConn could have to beat two Final Four squads from a season ago (Florida Atlantic and San Diego State), the SEC Tournament Champion (Auburn), the Big Ten Tournament Champion (Illinois) or the Big 12 Tournament Champion (Iowa State) just to advance to the Final Four again. The Huskies have the squad to pull off this feat, but it will not be easy.
Because this region is so top-heavy, I think the upsets may be fewer and farther between here than in other regions. That being said, some teams to keep an eye on are No. 14 Morehead State, No. 11 Duquesne, and No. 10 Drake. Duquesne is making its first trip to the big dance since 1977.
FINAL FOUR
Picking upsets correctly – and bragging about it to anyone within earshot – is one of the proudest traditions of March Madness. However, I will leave you with one last bit of advice when picking your Final Four and ultimately, your National Champion. While it is true that all four No. 1 seeds have only advanced to the Final Four in the same year once, since the tournament expanded a No. 1 seed has won the whole enchilada over 63 percent of the time. More specifically, 24 of the 38 winners were No. 1 seeds. Moreover, 34 of 38 winners were either No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seeds. In the last 25 years, only Connecticut, both as a No. 4 seed last year and as a No. 7 seed in 2014, won it all as a seed lower than No. 3. So while I wholeheartedly encourage upsets in the early rounds, the best strategy for picking the 2024 National Champion may be to stick with the higher seeds.
Despite residing in the region of death, the Huskies have still been the best team in college basketball. In the West, an Elite 8 matchup between Caleb Love's current and former squads should make for a dynamite battle. Since Love always wins, I've got Arizona moving on in a clash of the titans. In the South, No. 3 Kentucky has the scoring to vanquish even the most difficult defensive squad in the form of Houston. At some point, offensive struggles find those teams with that weakness in the big dance. In the Midwest, it seems to be an annual rite of passage for Purdue to fall short of expectations. As such, I've got a surprise final team in the Final Four; the Creighton Bluejays. The Bluejays have the size (Ryan Kalkbrenner) and guard play (Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander) to get the job done. They were the only team that made UConn look ordinary this season, even if just for one contest.
In the Final Four, Kentucky's guards will take over even against a stellar Creighton squad, setting up a matchup of juggernauts between Connecticut and Kentucky. Like everyone else in the country, I'm predicting the Huskies will cut down the nets to repeat as champions. It might be chalky or vanilla, but as referenced above, the Huskies have been the undisputed best team in the country throughout the season.
Good luck everyone, and enjoy the madness!
