This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
A typical big slate of games for DraftKings Tuesday, with a $5k top prize in its Pull Up Jumper. Let's take a look at today's implied totals -- this time dominated by Duke -- before jumping into the recommended plays.
Top Players
Paolo Banchero, F, Duke ($9,200 DK, $8,200 FD)
Duke has the highest projected point total on the slate, the only one close to 80 points, so you'll certainly want to take a close look at the Blue Devils. The best bet is Paolo Banchero, who's established an extremely high floor for himself and rarely disappoints. Banchero is coming off perhaps his best overall performance of the season, a 16-point 14-rebound game at Boston College. Banchero has improved his productivity on the boards recently, recording nine-plus rebounds in six consecutive games, with four double-doubles in that span. Banchero scored a team-high 24 points in Duke's previous encounter against Wake Forest back on Jan. 12, and there's no reason to think we won't see a similar performance in the rematch, especially playing at home.
Jaylin Williams, F, Arkansas ($8,000 DK, $7,900 FD)
The Razorbacks have the pleasure of going against the worst defense on the slate, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, so Arkansas has a good chance at putting up a ton of points. Jaylin Williams has been extremely productive over the last few weeks, scoring 32-plus fantasy points (DK) in 10 of his last 11 games, including the first game between Arkansas and Missouri back on Jan. 12. Wiliams recorded a double-double in the first game against Missouri, and he's basically been on fire ever since. He offers an extremely high floor with a great upside.
Middle Tier
Henry Coleman III, F, Texas A&M ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD)
This matchup is mostly even, although Texas A&M has an edge in a couple of key areas. During conference play, Texas A&M has the third-highest offensive rebounding rate in the SEC, while Florida has the second-lowest defensive rebounding rate. Additionally, Texas A&M's defense boasts the second-highest steal rate in the country, while Florida ranks No. 341 with one of the worst steal rates allowed among all D1 teams. Given this extreme discrepancy, one would certainly expect Texas A&M to rack up a few extra steals in this matchup. Henry Coleman fits the bill almost perfectly, as he leads the Aggies in offensive rebounding as well as total rebounding, and he's second on the team in steals, one shy of the team lead. Coleman has also scored the second-most points on the team this season, which isn't surprising considering that he also boasts the highest offensive efficiency rating.
Eric Dixon, F, Villanova ($6,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
Villanova has the sixth-best offensive attack in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, and it's taking on a Providence defense that ranked No. 53, the seventh-lowest among Big East teams. Villanova also has an edge on the glass, as Providence is rebounding at below-average conference rates against Big East teams, while Villanova has been one of the better rebounding teams in the conference. Eric Dixon leads Villanova in rebounding, so he's a natural beneficiary in this matchup. Dixon has played exceptionally well during conference play overall, posting the second-best offensive efficiency rating among all Big East players. Dixon has also scored in double figures in five of his last six games, including two double-doubles in that span. Given the favorable matchup, Dixon has a good shot at recording another one.
Value Plays
Kellan Grady, G, Kentucky ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD)
Kentucky and Tennessee match up pretty evenly, although one area where Tennessee has been vulnerable is its perimeter defense. Since conference season started, Tennessee is allowing opponents to make 34 percent of three-point attempts, the second-highest percentage allowed in the SEC. Kentucky's offense, meanwhile, is making over 37 percent of its three-point attempts, the highest percentage in the SEC. The Wildcats' high three-point percentage can mostly be attributed to Kellan Grady, who's making over 43 percent of his three-point attempts this season while easily attempting the most on the team. Grady has played over 90 percent of his team's minutes during conference season, the highest percentage of playing time among all SEC players, and has also taken 18 percent of his team's shots when on the court, giving us a potent combination for fantasy points. Grady has scored in double figures in seven straight games, and he also scored 16 points against Tennessee back on Jan. 15 in the first match-up between these two teams. Barring any surprises, Grady should once again have a productive day.
Landers Nolley, G, Memphis ($4,700 DK)
Landers Nolley was inconsistent early in the season but has found more rhythm since conference play started. In eight games against AAC opponents this season, Nolley is averaging nearly 11 points, four rebounds and four assists per game, while playing an average of 28-plus minutes per outing. Nolley is coming off his best game of the season, as he recently scored 20 points against Houston -- easily the toughest team in the conference. With his effort in the victory over Houston, Nolley earned KenPom's unofficial "MVP" award. Overall, Nolley has put up 19-plus fantasy points (DK) in six of eight conference games. Assuming his current trends hold up, Nolley shouldn't have too much trouble generating value at his current salary.
