DraftKings CFL: Week 21 Value Plays
DraftKings CFL: Week 21 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings CFL series.

We've arrived at the final week of the 2019 regular season, but the playoff picture still isn't quite settled. That's actually good news on the fantasy front, as it means we'll have some teams that are projected to play their starters. Specifically, it's the Roughriders and Stampeders with something to play for in Week 21, and there are also other players on non-contending teams looking to finish off the season strong. Without further ado, let's try to navigate the landscape and highlight some solid plays at each position in price point:

DraftKings CFL Plays - Week 21

Quarterback

Cody Fajardo, SSK vs. EDM ($10,400): As alluded to above, the Roughriders are one of two remaining teams with something to play for in Week 21, putting Fajardo firmly in consideration. His candidacy is all the more solidified by the fact he put up 27.23 fantasy points against this same Eskimos defense just a week ago on the strength of a 429-yard, two-touchdown effort. Edmonton is still ranked at or near the top of most major pass defense categories, but they're only middle of the pack in touchdown passes allowed (22), and just as important, Fajardo already proved capable of getting the best of them last week. Fajardo has also averaged 23.8 fantasy points across eight home contests and typically offers excellent rushing upside for a QB, furthering his case despite the five-figure investment.

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY at BC ($9,800): Mitchell captains the second squad still jockeying for final postseason positioning, and he comes in arguably underpriced after having eclipsed 30 fantasy points in each of his last two contests. Mitchell also turned in a solid 21.08 fantasy points versus the Lions in Week 3 and will be facing a team in BC that has nothing but pride to play for in the regular-season finale. Calgary needs a victory to at least clinch home field for the Western Division semi-final even if the Roughriders win earlier in the day Saturday, so Mitchell should be authoring an aggressive gameplan against a Lions defense that's gotten much better against the pass as the season has wound down but that may be a bit short on motivation Saturday night. It's also worth noting Mitchell has actually been a more productive fantasy QB on the road, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per road tilt, compared to 21.2 at home.

Dominique Davis, OTT vs. MTL ($7,300): Davis returns to the starting role for the regular-season finale in what has been a completely forgettable campaign for the Redblacks. Davis had mixed success this season as a starter and particularly struggled with turnovers, but he'll face an Alouettes squad in Week 21 that's already locked in its playoff position and may therefore rest some defensive starters. Davis also posted an impressive 23.8 fantasy points against the Alouettes in Week 5, and Montreal comes in allowing the second-most passing yards per game (316.1), along with the most completions (439) and highest completion percentage (73.4). What's more, the Als are tied with multiple teams for the highest average yards per attempt allowed (9.0), and Davis certainly doesn't have to do much to pay off his very reasonable price.

Running Back

John White, BC vs. CGY ($7,200): The running back pool is particularly tricky in this final week of the regular season, as top choice William Powell ($9,100) might be challenged to justify his price, while C.J. Gable ($8,700), James Wilder, Jr. ($8,200) and William Stanback ($8,000) all have injury questions attached to their hefty price tags. That brings us down to White, who should operate in his usual capacity and carries a reasonable mid-tier price. What's more, he also racked up a season-high 36.1 fantasy points against this same Stampeders defense back in Week 3.  Calgary does rank as one of the league's stingier units against the run in several categories, but they've allowed 13 touchdowns on the ground and a good-but-not-great 96.6 rushing yards per contest. White has logged double-digit rushes in five straight contests and has multiple receptions in each of those games as well, giving him a rock-solid floor in terms of workload, especially at his mid-tier cost.

AJ Ouellette, TOR at HAM ($5,800): As just alluded to, Wilder may not be available for the finale after missing last week's contest. Ouellette filled in admirably in Week 20 against the Redblacks, posting 21.8 fantasy points while scoring a receiving touchdown in addition to his solid work on the ground. The Tiger-Cats are another team which has playoff positioning locked in, and they've allowed a generous 5.3 yards per carry, 14 rushing scores and are tied with the Redblacks for most rushes of 20 or more yards (14) surrendered as well. Wilder's status will be worth keeping an eye on ahead of this game, but if he's ruled out, Ouellette becomes a potentially fruitful value option.

John Crockett, OTT vs. MTL ($5,200): The Eskimos' Shaquille Cooper ($5,400) is also a very appealing selection at this price point if C.J. Gable is ultimately ruled out for the Esks, but Crockett could make for some sneaky value in tournaments. The CFL rookie will return to action in Week 21 after being out since Week 11 with an undisclosed injury. Crockett eclipsed 70 rushing yards in Weeks 6-9 as the starting running back, a span that included a 71-yard effort against this same Alouettes squad in Week 8. Crockett also went for 62 yards on just eight rushes against Montreal in Week 5, and the Als come in allowing 107.2 rushing yards per contest, along with the second-highest average yards per rush (5.5) and 17 rushing touchdowns. Additionally, Montreal is tied with the Roughriders for third-highest red-zone success rate allowed (61.0 percent), adding to Crockett's appeal at his bargain price.

Wide Receiver/Slotback

Eric Rogers, CGY at BC ($8,400): Rogers' status will need to be monitored closely heading into the weekend, as he missed practice throughout the week. If he's unable to go, teammate Reggie Begelton ($9,700) will be even more appealing and should be slotted in Rogers' stead. The Lions defense has tightened up against the pass as the season has gone on, as noted in Mitchell's entry earlier; however, Rogers brings plenty of big-play upside if he plays, as evidenced most recently in Week 20 with a two-touchdown effort against the Bombers that netted 26.8 fantasy points. Then, note Rogers also enjoyed his biggest game of the season against the Lions back in Week 3, netting 44.0 fantasy points on the strength of a 9-100-3 line.

Quan Bray, MTL at OTT ($7,500):  Bray has been one of the most consistent members of the Alouettes' passing attack this season, and provided he sees enough playing time in the finale, he'll be in an excellent matchup with which to produce. The Redblacks have surrendered 27.4 and 11.0 fantasy points to Bray in two games this season and are allowing the most passing yards per game (319.8), second-most completions of 30 yards or more (29), second-most passing touchdowns (28) and second highest passer efficiency rating (105.8). NOTE: For those wanting to guard against Bray possibly seeing an early exit in this game, teammate Jake Wieneke ($6,100) is also an intriguing option in the same matchup and requires significantly less investment.

Naaman Roosevelt, SSK vs. EDM ($6,400): Speaking of consistency, Roosevelt has been the picture of steady production with six straight games with double-digit fantasy points. The veteran is priced very reasonably and is sure to enjoy a solid target share again in a key game for the Roughriders. Roosevelt eclipsed the century mark two games ago against the Lions. He's also facing an Eskimos defense that's tied for the second-highest efficiency rating allowed on targets of up to nine yards in depth (102.3), a passing window within which they've also yielded a 9:0 TD:INT. That vulnerability dovetails perfectly with Roosevelt's profile as a receiver, considering he's averaging a relatively modest 12.1 yards per grab and does the majority of his work within closely proximity of the line of scrimmage.

Hergy Mayala, CGY at BC ($3,500): Mayala's price is nothing short of mystifying, considering he's coming off a 27.3 fantasy-point effort against the Blue Bombers in Week 20. Mayala's price has actually come down another $100 from Week 20, and it's also worth noting he's scored 17.6 and 24.0 fantasy points in two other games over the last four contests. The Lions have been solid against the pass as already mentioned, but they are actually allowing the second-most touchdown passes (13) and third-highest efficiency rating (118.5) on targets of 20 yards or greater in depth, while Mayala has impressive hauled in five of the eight looks of that distance that he's seen this season for a stellar 62.5 percent catch rate.

Team Defense

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Edmonton Eskimos ($5,300): The Roughriders amassed only 4.0 fantasy points against the Eskimos in Week 20, but it will be Logan Kilgore and not Trevor Harris under center for Edmonton this week. Additionally, Saskatchewan will be at home and incentivized for a win to lock in final playoff positioning. The Riders are averaging an impressive 10.75 fantasy points per home game, allowing a stingy 18.5 points per game at Mosaic Stadium in the process. Before last week's outlier against Edmonton, Saskatchewan's defense had also scored between 11.0 and 18.0 fantasy points in the four games prior, and they come in with the second-most sacks (53) and second-most points off turnovers (102). With a second chance at Edmonton in as many weeks, Kilgore at QB, and the high stakes associated with the game, I see the Riders defense coming through with a strong performance.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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