This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
While our real-money bet percentage continues to soar, our simulated one-unit bets took another hit in Week 5.
SIMULATED BETS
Week 5 Results: 26-34-1
Win Pct. 42.6%
Total Results Through Week 5: 183-172-5
Total Win Pct. 51.5%
Adjusted ROI: -1.82%
CIN-30, CHAR -3.5, STAN +13.5, TOL -13, TENN -10.5, OKLA -3.5, FLA -39, AKR +13.5, MSU -5, OSU -21, BAY -3, ARK +5.5, GT -4, MRSH -21, UVA +2.5, CONN -3, MTSU +19.5, UAB -4, COLST -3, CMICH -5, WMU -11.5, WAKE -5, SMU -13.5, UNC -17.5, AUB +15, ILL +11, EMU +1.5, BYU -6, UNT +18.5, ORST -3.5, PSU +2, ECU +10, AFA -5.5, TROY-5.5, TCU -2, UTSA +3.5, USM +2, BUFF +6, USA -3.5, VT -0.5. UK -2.5, MICH -3, ULM +16, USC -3, BAMA -18, UNM +19.5, TULSA -3.5, NMSU +29.5, UCLA -16
REAL MONEY BETS
Week 5 Results: 4-1
Win Pct: 80.0%
Total Results Through Week 5: 17-8
Win Pct: 68.0%
If you had told me I would be hovering around a 70% win rate at Week 5, I would be beyond thrilled. Contrary to social media characters claiming 80 percent winners weekly, it's practically unsustainable unless they are only betting on one or two games. Most pro bettors consider a 65% grind a decent way to win some hard-earned cash, and I'm especially happy because I took lines on some of the most challenging bets of Week 5 and came out on top. We'll mix in some game total bets this week along with my favorite picks of Week 6.
MICHIGAN STATE -5 AND OVER 49.5 vs. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights were lit up by a premium rushing offense last week against Ohio State. Although Rutgers beat MSU last season, the Spartans are running with transfer Kenneth Walker III and a high=powered offense that Greg Schiano may not be prepared for. The key to this game will be how well an underperforming front seven will fare against Walker, who leads the country in rushing yards. An advantage in MSU's favor is their ability to stop big plays while Rutgers is near the FBS basement for explosive offensive plays. Both of these teams. This will be a pace-up game for Rutgers, as the Spartans rank 34th in the country in plays per minute. I would even consider buying a couple of points for the total.
OHIO STATE (1H -12) vs. Maryland
Maryland lost Dontay Demus for the season last week, which is a massive blow to their passing attack. I expect the Buckeyes to run up the score early, but switching to their scrubs could lead to a resurgence for the Terps. The potential of a first-half blowout is exactly why I'm afraid of the current +21 given to Maryland, but it's ample reason to take a rare 1H bet in anticipation of a lopsided first half.
OREGON STATE (-3.5) vs. Washington State
If you haven't watched the Beavers yet this season, you're missing out on one of the best offenses in the country, led by QB Chance Nolan. He leads an excellent passing attack, and with B.J. Baylor behind him, opposing defenses are kept on their heels. Baylor is in the Top 10 in the country with NINE rushing touchdowns, and he also leads the conference in average rushing yards per game. Neither of these defenses has anything to write home about, however. The Cougars are really up against it offensively, with inconsistent quarterback play and a down year for Max Borghi dragging their production severely. This game will be about the offense, and the Cougars are simply no match.
VIRGINIA TECH (-0.5) vs. Notre Dame
I bet against the Irish last week and am more than happy to do it again, as they'll face a tough Hokie team in a hostile environment. Brian Kelly and his team have squeaked their way through some questionable wins but finally got caught with their hand in the cookie jar against the Bearcats. There's merit in saying that Virginia Tech is a more balanced and potent offense compared to Cincy, and they have a much better resume of wins (UNC, UVA) and only one loss to WVU in a rivalry game that can go either way yearly. I like the Hokies in what is essentially a Pick 'Em bet.
