College Football Picks: CFB Week 10 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on November 2, 2023

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Chris' Picks

A second straight successful week has me flirting with respectability for the season. North Carolina's porous defense was last week's only downfall after successfully staying away from an early-week lean in Boston College. Hell, I even liked UMass but didn't have the courage to write it, so maybe things really are aligning late in the year. Let's see if we can keep rolling. All chalk for me this week, which isn't super exciting, but at this point, who cares? Just win, baby!

For what it's worth, the two games I'm staying away from are Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson and Florida (-6) vs. Arkansas. Neither line makes sense to me, as I think the favorites should win easily, and the lines are too low.

Wisconsin (-9.5) at Indiana

The thought here is the Hoosiers shot their shot last week still came up short and won't get up here. Despite taking Penn State to the wire, they still fell by nine. It's their fourth-straight loss, the previous three coming by double-digits, and their only wins are against Indiana State and Akron. Wisconsin has plenty of offensive warts with QB Tanner Mordecai out and RB Braelon Allen banged up. They, too, shot their shot at Ohio State last week and could be due for a hangover. But ultimately, they are the better side and should stretch out a two-score win.

Auburn (-12.5) at Vanderbilt

My trend this week is going against bad teams. No one will confuse Auburn with a top-tier team this season, but Vanderbilt is just far worse. Their only FBS win is over Hawaii; they've scored more than 21 points just twice during their seven-game losing streak and are allowing 38.1 ppg. Auburn hasn't scored more than 27 against anyone other than UMass and Samford, so this may feel a bit uncomfortable. But, I'm willing to give them a bit of a pass, having played Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU and Mississippi in conference. They are at the part of their schedule where they should start reeling off wins, which started last week with a 14-point win, and I look for them to build on that here, using a power running game to pound Vanderbilt's soft run defense.

Kentucky (-3.5) at Mississippi State

The Wildcats are a wounded group right now, having dropped three straight. That flirts with making this a must-win, and I trust them to do just that, making this low-ish spread something I feel confident targeting. The Bulldogs are offensively challenged, scoring 20 points across their last eight quarters and four times in five league games, posting 17 points or less. All four of their conference losses have been by at least a touchdown. They can't stop the run, allowing 171.5 ypg when they lose, which should allow Kentucky RB Ray Davis to do his thing and create timely passing opportunities for Devin Leary.

Alabama (-3) vs. LSU

I'm just unwilling to trust LSU defensively, and I am 'Bama. The Tide have allowed more than 21 points just once all season. I'm not expecting them to shut down or maybe not even contain LSU and QB Jayden Daniels. But I trust them far more to get stops when needed. Offensively, Alabama hasn't been elite, but Jalen Milroe is looking more competent by the week and is hitting shot plays on occasion. He'll do so here more than once, allowing Alabama to extend this lead as the game progresses.

Fresno State (-3) vs. Boise State

Here's a line I don't think makes sense, but I'm willing to take a swing at it. Fresno is 7-1 overall and undefeated at home, winning those four opportunities by 17.8 points. Boise is 4-4 overall and 1-3 on the road. They rank 125th against the pass, allowing 276.9 ypg and 8.5 ypa, and that should fit right into Fresno's passing game strength. We usually afford the home team with a minimum of three points, if not four or five, yet the spread still sits at three, suggesting this is a pick 'em at a neutral site. I don't see that.

Last week: 4-1; Season 20-25

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Greg's Picks

Another tough week. This one wasn't quite as painful as previous weeks, but a losing week is no fun, no matter how you get there. This is how I got there…

I got a nice win on the Clemson under, as there wasn't any scoring over the final eight minutes of the game. MSU followed that up with a stinker; well, the 2nd half was a stinker, as the Spartans were even with the Gophers through the 1st half. It was an easy win with the Cornhuskers over Purdue and then a frustrating loss on Florida. The Gators were outplayed, there's no denying that, but some costly mistakes made the cover nearly impossible. The final game was OSU, and while the Buckeyes missed the cover by half a point, they were never covering, so that one doesn't hurt quite as much.

Boston College (+2.5) at Syracuse

There is something seriously wrong with Syracuse right now. Then again, maybe there was nothing ever right about Syracuse this season. The Orangemen started the season 4-0, but looking back on that, the best team they beat was Purdue; yes, I said best. Since then, they've lost four in a row, and while some of that can be chalked up to a tougher schedule, they haven't been close in any of those four games. Headed in the opposite direction is Boston College, which is on a four-game winning streak entering this week. The Eagles have had an up-and-down season, but they've won five games and gave FSU everything it could handle. Syracuse will play better than it has over the past four weeks, but it won't be enough to beat a scrappy BC team.

Rutgers (+18.5) vs Ohio State

Perhaps I'm holding a grudge because OSU couldn't get much separation from a pretty mediocre Wisconsin team, but outside its win against Penn State, I haven't been overly impressed with the Buckeyes this season. They don't seem to have the explosive offense that we've become accustomed to over the year, and while the defense is good, it doesn't seem to be overwhelming. Rutgers is not the doormat of the Big 10 any longer, and they enter this game with a solid 6-2 record. Greg Schiano will have the Scarlet Knights ready to go in this one, and if the Buckeyes look past this game for any reason, they might find themselves in trouble.

Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson

This line doesn't look right, but I will bite anyway. Clemson has done absolutely nothing this season to be favored over a good Notre Dame team. The Tigers have lost three of their past five, granted against good competition, but in their most recent home game against Wake Forest, they barely survived 17-12. The defense is no longer imposing, and there's no firepower on the offensive side of the ball. This won't be a blowout. Clemson played FSU tough at home earlier this season, but I don't see Notre Dame losing this game with their experienced leader, Sam Hartman.

Over (54.5) Missouri at Georgia

This is not the Georgia team that won the past two national titles. The offense is explosive, but the defense isn't as tormenting as it's been the past couple of seasons. In fact, the Bulldogs have surrendered over 17 ppg in conference play this season, which isn't a ton, but it's a lot for what we've become accustomed to. Missouri can move the ball on offense better than the Gators can, and the Gators managed 20 points this past week. I know it's not apples to apples, as this game is in Athens, but I expect the Tigers to have enough success on offense to contribute to this over. As for the Bulldogs, well, Missouri has no shot at slowing them down.

Over (75.5) Washington at USC

Get the popcorn ready; this is going to be a fun one. USC has been a mess on defense all season, and even though Caleb Williams hasn't lived up to expectations, the offense has still produced at a high rate. Washington's offense is among the best in the nation, and the Trojans really have no hope of even slowing it down here; the only hope for the Trojans is for Williams to have an other-worldly type game and win in a massive shootout. Washington's defense can be had; we saw what Bo Nix was able to do in Pullman a few weeks ago. This game is on the road, and as weird as it sounds, I think Williams has something to prove to this new crop of doubters. On the other side of the ball, Michael Penix has his eye on the Heisman, and you can bet that the Huskies want to make a statement this week.

Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 19-26-0

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Jeff's Picks

I ended up 2-3 after some heartbreaking close calls. Kansas and Arizona Stare surprised us, but at least Oregon and Louisville came through in a big way. I'm hoping for 4-1 or better this week to stay above water.

Notre Dame (-3) @ Clemson

Hartman is no stranger to Death Valley after his many years at Wake Forest, and although he's historically had trouble against the Tigers, his supporting cast is much better this time around. Dabo Swinney's tirade on talk radio just about sums up the level of frustration present with the Tigers, and although Phil Mafah will fare just fine, the team may be without Will Shipley this week, which is a considerable loss. Cade Klubnik is going to make some mistakes in the game, and it's going to be another long day in Death Valley for the Tigers.

Oklahoma (-5.5) @ Oklahoma State

The Sooners let me down last week, but how can I resist a bet on Bedlam? This could be the last Bedlam game for a while, thanks to conference realignment, and the Sooners will be hopping mad after notching their first loss against Kansas. The Sooners have essentially run out of chances to make an impression with the CFP judges, and their only hope for a New Year's Six bid is to blow out everyone left on their schedule. The key to this game will be Oklahoma's ability to contain Ollie Gordon. If they can do that and win the turnover margin, they should be able to win this game by a touchdown.

Washington (-3) @ USC

Who HASN'T beaten up on USC's defense this season? No one lets a team back into a game like the Trojans, and lately, they haven't been able to put enough points together to just outscore the competition and forget about defense. A gutsy two-point call from Cal saved them from another loss, but Utah and Notre Dame showed their vulnerability. Washington's defense has shown some cracks, but they have among the best wideouts in the country, and Penix is throwing the ball. This should be another step to a four-loss season for the Trojans.

Alabama (-3) vs. LSU

I have several reasons why the Crimson Tide can take this game at home. I'll take the bad with the good regarding Milroe, who will have a significant advantage against the Tigers. Both of their star cornerbacks are out, and Milroe's best pass is the deep post route. LSU is also weak against the run, and although Alabama's running backs haven't set the world on fire, they'll be able to set up a balanced offensive attack. The key to this game is the effectiveness of Daniels. He's deadly if he has time but caves under pressure. Alabama ranks fourth nationally in sack percentage, and the defense should be able to pester him enough to keep him off balance. This line has dropped to -3, and I'm smashing it before it goes back up.

OVER 42.5 Ohio State @ Rutgers

I saw this number right away at first glance, and I'm coming back to it as my sole Over/Under bet on the slate. The Buckeyes average 32.5 points per game, and although they were way below that mark in their past two games, I think they'll fare much better against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have enjoyed some nice wins (Virginia Tech, Michigan State), but they've been blown out by Penn State, Maryland and Michigan, and I would put the Buckeyes on par with those offenses, save perhaps Michigan. I don't think this game will turn into a blowout, but Ohio State could conceivably get to this number without any help from Rutgers.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 23-21-1