College Football Best Bets: Florida State vs Virginia
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As the Dabo Swinney-centric schadenfreude rises toward its saturation point (not that we have any complaints), the question turns to who will emerge from the ACC. Two contenders for that crown are facing off Friday evening, both of them off to hot starts of varying degrees of surprise. One of these teams, Florida State, is looking to prove that 2024 was an anomaly. The other, Virginia, is trying to make a rare splash in the football realm. If the Cavaliers can win at home Friday, suddenly a lot of people are going to have to take them very seriously.
Florida State vs Virginia Betting Odds
Spread: Florida State -6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Virginia +7 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 59.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 60.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Florida State -250 (BetMGM), Virginia +225 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
It would seem that the Seminoles have already earned some real respect in 2025, as they are a touchdown favorite on the road. While that may overrate Florida State, is it perhaps actually more about not buying into Virginia?
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Florida State vs Virginia Betting Picks
If you are a college football fan, you likely know the deal with the Seminoles. Florida State was undefeated in 2023, but because quarterback Jordan Travis got injured and was going to miss the postseason, and since that was back in the four-team playoff days, the team was unreasonably left out. Last season, things fell apart about as badly as they could for a program. The Seminoles went 2-10, one of those wins against an FCS team. It was a disaster. Mike Norvell kept his job, but he had to get things turned around quickly.
So far, so good. Norvell brought in Tony White to coordinate the defense and made the splashy hire of Gus Malzahn to run the offense. Tommy Castellanos (listed as probable for Friday with a lower-body knock) came in as the spread option quarterback, and it's worked a treat. Florida State is 3-0; it has wiped the floor with two easy opponents, and in its season opener, it beat Alabama. That led to more handwringing about the Crimson Tide than enthusiasm for the Seminoles, but as the Tide have looked better in the ensuing weeks, that is looking like a quality win. The Seminoles rank 8th in the AP poll, but is still 31st in SP+. They have had to climb out of the hole that was a 2-10 season on that front.
Tony Elliott, meanwhile, revamped his offense at Virginia. Chandler Morris, who was a star at North Texas last season, has thrown for 1,050 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception, and he's added 132 yards and a touchdown on the ground. J'Mari Taylor was a highly productive back at the FCS level at North Carolina Central, and now with the Cavaliers, he's averaged 6.2 yards per carry and scored six touchdowns. Virginia did lose 35-31 on the road to North Carolina State, but it has stomped Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, and Stanford. It started the season 74th in SP+ and is now up to 42nd.
I understand the enthusiasm for Florida State's turnaround, but I am impressed with Virginia as well. Impressed enough, I am not going to presume it will lose by more than a touchdown at home.
Florida State vs Virginia Best Bet: Virginia +7 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Florida State vs Virginia Betting Predictions
I am not going so far as to say the Cavaliers will pull an upset, though I could see it. Florida State handled Alabama, but that was at home. In fact, this is the Seminoles' first road game of 2025. Shockingly, they didn't visit East Texas A&M. Castellanos is in a different offense from when he was at Boston College, but at Boston College, he showed a propensity to get off schedule and to "try stuff," as they say. Something that could lead to, say, two interceptions and two fumbles, one lost. Hey, that's what Castellanos did at Virginia last season!
Virginia, and the Virginia crowd, will be up for this one. Ultimately, I don't think a field storming is in the cards, but Florida State fans will be sweating this one out.
Florida State 27, Virginia 24
