This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
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The Big 12 survived. In the end, it's the Pac-12 that suffered the fatal blow dealt out in the scrambling for conference supremacy (on the court and in the bank account), but Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC really made waves. That makes this the last time Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are squaring off as conference rivals. Bedlam will happen again, but it will never be like this. The Cowboys and their fans in Stillwater will surely be hyped for this one, and they catch the Sooners at perhaps the perfect time to pull off an upset.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: Oklahoma -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Oklahoma State +6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 60.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook) or 61.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -225 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Oklahoma State +198 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
It would seem the books, at least or the way the bets have come in, indicate worry about the Sooners is minimal. That, or belief in the Cowboys is minimal. Oklahoma State has six points to work with at home over at BetMGM! This happens to be antithetical to what I feel, which is good for me from a betting perspective.
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Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Betting Picks for Week 10
The Sooners beat the Longhorns, at which point they looked primed to be a part of the playoff picture. Many who watched the game, though, felt like Texas was still the better team of the two. Oklahoma then had to sweat it out against UCF, but maybe it was a hangover game! Then, the Sooners lost to Kansas. The concerning thing was watching the defense, which was pretty poor last year, start to unravel. Currently, Oklahoma is fifth in SP+ on offense but 30th on defense.
The Cowboys got housed by South Alabama. That's a bad look, I'll admit it. Then, Iowa State eked out a win at home against them. Things looked kind of dire in Stillwater. Mike Gundy has been the head man at his alma mater forever for a reason, though. He landed on two assertions: Alan Bowman is the starting quarterback, and Ollie Gordon will be the focal point of this offense. Oklahoma State has won four in a row; in that time, Gordon has averaged 8.2 yards per carry while racking up 857 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, and the team is up to 24th in offensive SP+, and even 49th in defensive SP+.
Who is the more talented team? Oklahoma. Who is playing better right now? Oklahoma State. Who is at home and playing empirically its biggest game of the season? Also Oklahoma State. The college football season is comparatively short, but teams still have time for ebbs and flows. Earlier in the year, I would have taken Oklahoma. Right now, though, if you give me six points of leeway with Oklahoma State, I will happily take it.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Best Bet: Oklahoma State +6 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Predictions for Week 10
The Sooners won't be able to stop Gordon. I'm confident in that. Gundy is also not shy about giving him the ball a ton, as he's had at least 29 touches in each of his last three games. That puts the onus on Oklahoma to stop the star back, but it also will shorten the game, especially now that the clock doesn't stop for every first down. Shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of a high-powered offense is a couple of steps in the recipe for an upset.
Will the fans in Stillwater be storming the field and tearing down goalposts, having vanquished their heated rivals? I can see it, for sure. If I were just being flippant and answering a question, I'd call for an Oklahoma State upset, but if the line were thinner, I wouldn't put my money where my mouth is, so to speak, on that. With six points, though, the circumstances are different. If Oklahoma wins, it is very much possible. Of course, I don't see it being by a full touchdown. The Sooners haven't won by a touchdown since they played Iowa State on Sept. 30. I think Oklahoma is a pretender, and pretenders are fallible at times like this.
