College Football Best Bets: Penn State vs Oregon
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We're on to Week 5, and we have a doozy in the Big Ten. It's a battle of top-ten teams when the No. 6 Oregon Ducks (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) meet the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0, 0-0) at Beaver Stadium in State College, Penn., at 7:30 p.m. ET. The game can be viewed on NBC and Peacock.
Oregon came up just short in a marquee game against Ohio State last season, and that was at its home stadium. This time, the Ducks hit the road, and they'll be behind enemy lines.
For Penn State, it's now or never to gain the nation's trust. People understand the Nittany Lions are a good team, but are they a great team? They always seem to fold when it matters most.
Penn State vs Oregon Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Oregon +3.5 (ESPN Bet); Penn State -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 53.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon +162 (Caesars Sportsbook); Penn State -175 (BetMGM)
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Penn State vs Oregon Betting Picks for Week 5
The Ducks have rolled up 34 or more points in all four games to date, including a 34-14 win at Northwestern in the team's only previous road game in the Big Ten opener as a 26.5-point favorite. Oregon has allowed just 37 total points across four games, or 9.3 points per game (PPG). The Under has cashed in the past two games after the Over hit in the first two outings.
Last Saturday, Oregon routed rival Oregon State 41-7 as a 34-point favorite, pushing at most shops as the Under (58) connected. The Ducks racked up 29 first downs, to just eight for the Beavers, while Oregon managed 585 total yards, with 305 yards through the air. Oregon had 9.8 yards per pass play, while going for 280 yards on the ground, or 6.1 yards per rush. The Ducks were plus-1 in turnover margin, too.
Ducks QB Dante Moore has thrown for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception, and he has been sacked just one time. RB Jayden Limar is good for 215 yards and three touchdowns, while RB Dierre Hill Jr. has 188 yards and two scores, and RB Noah Whittington has 159 rushing yards with two touchdowns. RB Jordon Davison has been a bowling ball at the goal line, too, compiling six rushing scores despite just 74 yards and 3.9 yards per attempt.
On the receiving end, WR Dakorien Moore has a team-best 207 yards and two scores, while WR Malik Benson has 201 yards and two touchdowns. TE Kenyon Sadiq has nine receptions for 155 yards and two scores, too, while WR Gary Bryant Jr. has racked up 142 yards and three touchdowns.
The kicking game is impressive for Oregon, as PK Atticus Sappington has hit 5-of-6 field goals, including a long of 42 yards, while posting 18 point-after attempts for a total of 33 points.
On defense, watch LB Matayo Uiagalelei, who has three sacks, a pass defensed and five solo stops with two assists. LB Bryce Boettcher has 27 total tackles, and LB Teitum Tuioti has 1.5 sacks and seven solo tackles.
For Penn State, it carries a big ranking into this game, but we still don't know much about the Nittany Lions yet. It opened with a 46-11 win over Nevada, while pounding FIU 34-0. In the most recent showing, Penn State topped Villanova of the FCS by a 52-6 score in a game you might have seen on the bad beats segment on a popular cable sports network.
Penn State is 0-3 against the spread (ATS), but it has been favored by 42 or more points in each outing. This is, obviously, the first 'real' game.
Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar has completed 64.8 percent of his pass attempts for 626 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, while RB Kaytron Allen has managed 273 yards and three scores with an impressive 8.0 yards per attempt. RB Nicholas Singleton is good for 179 yards and five scores, while averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. WR Trebor Pena leads with 166 receiving yards and one score. No Penn State receiver has more than one receiving score so far.
Defensively, LB Amare Campbell leads the way with 16 solo tackles and 22 total stops, while posting a sack. LB Tony Rojas is good for 11 solo tackles, 18 stops and two sacks, and DE Dani Dennis-Sutton also has a pair of sacks. They'll be looking to pressure Moore early and often.
Oregon is making a second trip east of the Mississippi, and the leaves haven't even started to change yet. It's a lot of travel, especially when arriving at Happy Valley. That's a tough place to play, they'll be doing their "whiteout" thing, which is supposed to intimidate people, etc. However, the factor here, or the wild card, is head coach James Franklin. He just hasn't been able to win the big game, and until he does, you have to pick against him.
Penn State vs Oregon Expert Pick: Oregon ML (+162 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Penn State vs Oregon Predictions for Week 5
Looking at the total, Oregon has cashed the Under in each of the past two games, including the Big Ten opener at Northwestern on Sept. 13.
The Ducks' defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in all four games to date, while the offense has rolled up at least 34 points, including 59 or more points in the first two games. It pounded Oklahoma State 69-3 on Sept. 6, but that was the last Over result. The Under has hit in the past two games, averaging 37.5 PPG, while allowing 10.5 PPG.
The Nittany Lions haven't left home yet, going for 46 or more points in two of three games at home. The offense has looked good, but it hasn't faced much resistance, either. We just don't know much about Penn State yet, and we're going to learn so much in these four quarters, similar to how we learned Illinois was a fraud last week.
In addition to taking Oregon on the moneyline against Penn State, let's back the Under. Penn State won't be able to score nearly as many points as it did against three overwhelmed foes, and Oregon will likely put up fewer points on the road, similar to the performance against Northwestern.
