QB Rankings: Reins to Rudolph

QUARTERBACK

1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson, JR

Watson's production from 2015 was remarkable, and borderline impossible when you consider that he was returning from a torn ACL that wasn't repaired until after the 2014 season. Although he was only about nine months into his recovery at the start of 2016, Watson went on to throw 35 touchdowns and run for 12 touchdowns in 15 games. He did all of that with top wideout Mike Williams missing nearly the entire season due to a neck injury. Williams is back in 2016, and his return could allow Watson to score even more often through the air.

2. Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech, JR

Mahomes is in the same tier as Watson, offsetting decreased efficiency with an increase in volume. Mahomes attempted more than 44 passes and 10 carries per game last year, and when you combine that big workload with his standout dual-threat skills, the result is video-game numbers. Playing in the Big 12 with fast tempos and mediocre defenses helps, too. Mahomes threw for 4,653 yards and 36 touchdowns in 13 games last year while adding 456 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, his first full season as starter. Expect a similar outcome in 2016.

3. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State, JR

With Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller no longer muddying the Ohio State QB situation, Barrett should take strong hold of the Buckeyes' offense in 2016 and produce more like he did in his breakout 2014 season, when he threw for 34 touchdowns and ran for 11 more in 12 games. Even while rotating with Jones in a sometimes sputtering Ohio State passing game, Barrett still showed strong production in his part-time role, scoring 22 touchdowns (11 passing, 11 rushing). With his play count nearly doubling this year, a 40-touchdown pace should again be within reach.

4. Seth Russell, Baylor, SR

Russell was our top-ranked quarterback last year and might have held the same distinction for 2016 if he hadn't suffered a season-ending neck injury in the seventh game. Russell threw for 2,104 yards and 29 touchdowns while running for 402 yards and six more touchdowns in those seven games, making him a fantasy clincher prior to the injury. Unfortunately, even with Russell expected to make a full return for 2016, that neck injury and the looming presence of blue chip sophomore Jarrett Stidham makes Russell substantially more risky than he was a year ago.

5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, SO

It wasn't always pretty for Jackson in 2015, as his passing effectiveness was hit-or-miss in an incoherent QB rotation, but toward the end of the year he showed legitimate Heisman upside as a devastating rushing threat. Even if his passing boxscore of 1,840 yards (7.4 YPA), 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions didn't do much for fantasy owners, Jackson's 960 yards (5.9 YPC) and 11 touchdowns on the ground demonstrated top-tier fantasy upside. Jackson rushed for 100 yards five times last year, including a 226-yard, two-TD rushing day in a bowl victory over Texas A&M.

6. Kenny Hill, TCU, JR

Hill threw for 2,649 yards (8.3 YPA), 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions in an eight-game stint as starter for Texas A&M in 2014, at which point he was benched for reasons that look dubious in hindsight. Indeed, Hill is likely in for a vindication tour as he takes over the offense previously run by Trevone Boykin. Hill likely isn't the running threat that Boykin was, but he still has above average mobility and should safely outdo the rushing numbers he posted at A&M, when he ran for just 156 yards in eight games.

7. Greg Ward, Houston, SR

Ward was spectacular in 2015, as the former wideout improbably turned himself into the best player on a Houston squad with surprise national championship ambitions. With coach Tom Herman arriving in Houston after previously coordinating the Ohio State offense, Ward was turned into Houston's version of Barrett, throwing for 2,827 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 1,114 yards (5.7 YPC) and 21 touchdowns. Ward's lack of size (5-11, 185) makes him an injury risk, but if he stays healthy he should be in on the Heisman conversation.

8. Dakota Prukop, Oregon, SR

Prukop is a transfer who hasn't played at the FBS level, but he has every bit of the pedigree Vernon Adams did a year ago, and arguably has an even better profile. In 22 games at Montana State, Prukop threw for 5,584 yards (9.2 YPA), 46 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while running for 1,743 yards (5.3 YPC) and 24 touchdowns. Combining Prukop's dual-threat skills with Oregon's tempo and scoring propensity is an obvious formula for elite production. While Prukop hasn't technically been named starter, the expectation is that he'll hold off redshirt freshman Travis Jonsen.

9. Luke Falk, Washington State, SR

The starting quarterback in a Mike Leach offense is perhaps the most consistent entity in college football. The unmatched tempo and passing aggression of the Leach offense all but assures the national lead in pass attempts, and a safe 4,500-yard projection as a result. Although his season was disrupted by a concussion, Falk threw for 4,561 yards (7.1 YPA) and 38 touchdowns in 12 games, and he's a good bet to outdo those numbers if he stays completely healthy for 2016. Despite the cartoonish passing game stats, Falk's upside is otherwise capped by his negative rushing yardage.

10. Chad Kelly, Mississippi, SR

Kelly was a bit wild and scattershot in his first year as starter in 2015, but even if he doesn't improve at all, he should still be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in 2016. The Hugh Freeze offense once made a 30-touchdown player out of Bo Wallace, and Kelly is certainly better than that. After throwing for 4,042 yards (8.8 YPA) and 31 touchdowns while running for 509 yards (4.8 YPC) and 10 touchdowns in 13 games, Kelly is poised to jump into the Heisman conversation in his second year as starter.

11. Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee, SR

Passing will never be Dobbs' strength – his accuracy has left much to be desired – but his experience level could grant him a career year in that regard this season. Even if he does not progress as a passing quarterback, Dobbs is a standout fantasy quarterback due to his elite rushing production. In his last 19 starts, Dobbs has run for 1,140 yards and 19 touchdowns, offsetting the otherwise mediocre 3,497 yards (6.7 YPA) and 24 touchdowns through the air.

12. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina, JR

Trubisky served as backup to Marquise Williams the last two years, but still pushed for enough playing time to throw for 1,014 yards (8.1 YPA) and 11 TDs while running for 131 yards (4.9 YPC) and three touchdowns. With Williams graduated, Trubisky should have the quarterback snaps to himself at North Carolina, and a good surrounding offense assures a likelihood of standout scoring production. While Trubisky is more of a passer and less of a runner than Williams, it's worth noting that Williams produced 71 touchdowns over the last two years (45 passing, 26 rushing).

13. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, SR

Mayfield proved a great fit for the Lincoln Riley offense in 2015, finishing with 3,700 yards passing (9.4 YPA), 36 TDs and seven INTs in 13 games while adding 405 yards (2.9 YPC) and seven scores on the ground. The loss of star WR Sterling Shepard is disappointing, but Mayfield should remain a high-efficiency producer thanks largely to an Oklahoma running game that will move the chains with extreme ease. Penn State transfer WR Geno Lewis was a reassuring addition following Shepard's exit, too. Even without Shepard, Mayfield should be within scoring range often in 2016.

14. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State, JR

Rudolph has quietly been extremely productive since Oklahoma State burned his redshirt deep in the 2014 season, becoming one of the nation's top passing talents in a Cowboys offense that has produced reliably the last decade. Even while losing red-zone snaps to backup J.W. Walsh last year, Rudolph threw for 3,770 yards (8.9 YPA) and 21 TDs. Considering Walsh poached 26 total TDs last year, it's hard to not get excited about what Rudolph will do now that he has the quarterback position to himself. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where he pushes for 40 passing TDs.

15. Eric Dungey, Syracuse, SO

It would be unfair to expect Dungey to do a Matt Johnson impression just because coach Dino Babers arrived at Syracuse after forging one of college football's all-time best offenses at Bowling Green last year, but Dungey was promising as a true freshman in 2015. Babers' arrival, then, should put Dungey in position to become one of the nation's most productive QBs after throwing for 1,298 yards (7.4 YPA) and 11 TDs while running for 351 yards (3.9 YPC) and five touchdowns in just eight games last year while playing a merciless schedule. There is huge upside here.

16. Riley Ferguson, Memphis, JR

A junior college transfer and former Tennessee Volunteer, Ferguson is the favorite to start for a Memphis squad that loses coach Justin Fuente but replaces him with a similarly tempo-conscious offensive mind in former Arizona State OC Mike Norvell. Norvell helped make Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici productive with the Sun Devils, and now he takes over an offense that still possesses a lot of skill position talent. In an uptempo offense with a standout wide receiver rotation to throw to, Ferguson should help Memphis fans get over the loss of Paxton Lynch in a hurry.

17. Taylor Lamb, Appalachian State, JR

Lamb scored touchdowns with remarkable frequency in 2015, throwing for 31 and running for five more in 13 games. He threw for those 31 touchdowns on just 280 pass attempts – a touchdown-scoring efficiency matched only by Baylor's Russell, who threw for 29 in 200 attempts. If Appalachian State were to let Lamb throw and run more than he did in 2015, a true Heisman contention would be the likely result. Unfortunately, Lamb's usage is probably capped by his offense's run-heavy nature, as well as the fact that Appalachian State's defense will likely be quite good.

18. Kent Myers, Utah State, JR

Finally free from the shadow of Chuckie Keeton, Myers will take sole ownership of the Utah State QB job, and a breakout season could happen as a result. Quietly one of the nation's best QBs through his true sophomore season, Myers' 16 career games resulted in 2,459 yards (7.7 YPA) and 21 touchdowns through the air while running for 664 yards (4.7 YPC) and eight touchdowns. He would probably be ranked higher than this if he hadn't lost top wideouts Hunter Sharpe and Devonte Robinson in the offseason. If he can get a little help from his pass catchers, Myers should roll.

19. Quinton Flowers, South Florida, JR

The presence of UCLA transfer Asiantii Woulard is a slight concern – Woulard is a former four-star recruit – but Flowers was likely too good in 2015 for his role to be in any question. Indeed, Flowers was more than good last year, throwing for 2,290 yards (8.3 YPA) and 22 touchdowns while adding 991 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 more scores on the ground in 13 games. It seems safe to say that Flowers is one of the nation's best dual-threat quarterbacks, and he should enjoy another successful season with South Florida returning most of its skill position talent.

20. James Knapke, Bowling Green, SR

Knapke is not Matt Johnson or anything close, but he should still serve as a standout fantasy QB just because of volume. Coach Babers is gone, but the replacement is former Texas Tech RB coach Mike Jinks, meaning Bowling Green should be as high-tempo and pass-happy as ever. Even if he's likely just a replacement-level talent, Knapke has valuable experience in his favor after starting nearly all 2014 after Johnson suffered a season-ending hip injury. The loss of WRs Roger Lewis, Gehrig Dieter and Ryan Burbrink hurts, but BG still has a strong top-three at receiver.

21. John Franklin, Auburn, JR
22. Mike White Western, Kentucky, SR
23. Trevor Knight, Texas A&M, SR
24. Matt Davis, SMU, SR
25. Skyler Howard, West Virginia, SR
26. Tommy Armstrong, Nebraska, SR
27. Perry Hills, Maryland, SR
28. Anu Solomon, Arizona, SR
29. Kenny Potter, San Jose State, SR
30. Thomas Woodson, Akron, JR
31. Brent Stockstill, Middle Tenn. State, SO
32. Justin Holman, UCF, SR
33. Nick Mullens, Southern Mississippi, JR
34. Zach Terrell, Western Michigan, SR
35. Chad Voytik, Arkansas State, SR
36. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech, JR
37. Josh Rosen, UCLA, SO
38. Dane Evans, Tulsa, SR
39. Richard Lagow, Indiana, JR
40. Alec Morris, North Texas, SR