British Grand Prix
Location: Silverstone, England
Course: Silverstone Circuit
Course Length: 5.891 KM
Laps: 42
British Grand Prix Race Preview
Silverstone is one of the marquee events on the F1 calendar. In just the last two years, we've seen the Lewis Hamilton-Max Verstappen rivalry of the 2021 season take shape on the weekend. Last year, Carlos Sainz Jr. claimed his first career win. There isn't likely to be much drama regarding the winner of the race this time around as Max Verstappen is toying with the field both with the pace of his Red Bull and his excellent skill. There's intrigue immediately behind him, however. Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes have all taken turns looking like the second-best team this season. Aston Martin looked to be the best of the group, but their recent form has slipped relative to its competitors. Meanwhile, Mercedes seemed to have things figured out with their reintroduction of sidepods, but they had disappointing pace at the Red Bull Ring last weekend. Finally, Ferrari has consistently shown pace over one lap but hadn't had the performance carryover to long stints on race day. However, they had their best day of the 2023 season in Austria and carry momentum into this weekend.
The team to watch is McLaren. They're introducing upgrades slowly, but Lando Norris took a quick liking to the modified car with a fourth-place finish last weekend. Oscar Piastri was driving the old version, so he could a nice longshot bet for a points finish. McLaren as a whole will be motivated, as they look to engage in a fight for fifth in the constructor standings with Alpine.
Key Stats at Silverstone
Number of Races: 58
Winners from Pole: 21
Winners from top-5 starters: 54
Winners from top-10 starters: 58
Previous 10 British Grand Prix Winners
2022- Carlos Sainz Jr.
2021- Lewis Hamilton
2020- Max Verstappen
2019- Lewis Hamilton
2018- Sebastian Vettel
2017- Lewis Hamilton
2016- Lewis Hamilton
2015- Lewis Hamilton
2014- Lewis Hamilton
2013- Nico Rosberg
Silverstone is an incredibly fast track despite having 18 turns, as the circuit flows extremely smoothly throughout. Drivers can stay full throttle for up to 80 percent of the lap and are forced to use the brake only eight percent of the time. Downforce, power and torque are the name of the game this weekend.
That also means there is a lot of stress on the tires, so Pirelli has chosen to send the hardest combination of compounds. We should see all three compounds used in the race by different teams, and the most used strategy is projected to be two stops.
DraftKings Value Picks for the British Grand Prix
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $15,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Charles Leclerc - $10,800
Lewis Hamilton - $9,600
Fernando Alonso - $8,400
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,000
Tier 3 Values
Lando Norris - $6,800
Lance Stroll-$6,200
Esteban Ocon - $6,000
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Tier 4 Values
Yuki Tsunoda -$5,000
Oscar Piastri - $4,800
Zhou Guanyu- $3,400
Logan Sargeant - $3,000
DraftKings Constructor Values
Red Bull Racing - $14,000
Ferrari - $9,700
Aston Martin - $8,300
McLaren - $5,200
Alpine- $4,400
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the British Grand Prix
Captain – Max Verstappen - $22,500
Lando Norris - $6,800
Lance Stroll - $6,200
Pierre Gasly - $5,600
Zhou Guanyu - $3,400
Constructor – McLaren - $5,200
DraftKings continues to rightfully price Verstappen up, as rostering him occupies 37.5 percent of the $60,000 salary. Given his form all season – and particularly of late – that move is still the obvious choice. In large field tournaments, it's worth considering fading Verstappen because he's going to be so highly rostered. On the small chance he doesn't dominate due to car failure or a crash, hitting on an alternative driver would be a massive boost up the standings. Charles Leclerc of Ferrari or Sergio Perez of Red Bull are decent alternatives.
Rostering Norris is putting a lot on McLaren's improved form in Austria, but the team is continuing to roll out their upgrades over the course of three races. Silverstone is the second. For that reason, Oscar Piastri ($4,800) could be a decent value, though he's priced aggressively – particularly considering he's a long shot to beat his teammate. The McLaren has typically been well-suited to Silverstone – Norris finished sixth there last season – and I'd expect that to continue.
Lance Stroll has been catching significant heat for his form as compared to Aston Martin teammate Fernando Alonso, but he has three consecutive points finishes. He's the lowest-priced driver among the four teams that have separated themselves this season, making him a decent value. The primary drawback is that he has little chance of beating Alonso on merit.
Gasly is a good value proposition for two reasons. He's a strong driver and in a car that has reliably performed atop the cluster of midfield teams. He's cheaper than Alpine teammate Esteban Ocon by $400 but has the chance to both finish in the points and beat Ocon. He's the cheapest driver where both of those things are realistic.
Guanyu is the cheap play we need to fit Verstappen into the lineup. He's the best option for a few reasons. Haas is quick on one lap so it's very possible we see either or both of Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen out-qualify Guanyu, but their race pace is awful so we can predict they slip down the grid. Nyck De Vries is clinging by a thread to his seat at Alpha Tauri and has beaten teammate Yuki Tsunoda only twice this season. Finally, Logan Sargeant has shown some promise at Williams but has been too inconsistent to rely upon. As for Guanyu himself, he has two points finishes and defeated Valtteri Bottas in four of nine races this season.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the British Grand Prix
Race Winner – Max Verstappen (-360)
Podium Finish – Carlos Sainz Jr. (+330), Sergio Perez (-190)
Top-6 Finish – Lando Norris (+175)
Top-10 Finish – Pierre Gasly (+100)
There's not a lot of value in picking a winner in the race because Verstappen has such short odds. At the same time, there's no case for to bet on another driver surpassing him.
Things are a bit more interesting after picking the outright winner. Red Bull has such an advantage in pace, Perez is a fairly obvious choice. He got back on track at Austria last weekend even after getting eliminated in Q1 again, so his confidence should be back. Ferrari has always performed well at Silverstone, as the track suits their typical car characteristics. They've put at least one driver on the podium at the track since 2018, highlighted by Sainz's win last season. Even in years when the car has been inconsistent, Ferrari shows up for this weekend. Leclerc (+115) is also a decent podium choice.
We've discussed Norris at length, but in short, I expect another strong weekend from him. To reach a top-six, he'd likely have to finish ahead of at least one Mercedes and one Ferrari, or beat one car from those teams and Fernando Alonso. That's a tough ask, but certainly doable.
Gasly has finished inside the top 10 in six of nine races and was on pace to do so in Australia as well before crashing into his teammate. He has an inconsistent history at Silverstone but does have seventh fourth place in finishes from 2019 and 2020.
