2025 Pirelli Italian Grand Prix
Location: Monza, Italy
Course: Autodromo Nazionale di Monza
Course Length: 5.79km
Laps: 53
Italian Grand Prix Race Preview
The Dutch Grand Prix gave us some key data points in the return from the summer break last weekend, but those results should be discounted in some ways due to the timing of cautions and the level of carnage in the race. Both Ferraris and a McLaren were forced to retire, while Kimi Antonelli and Carlos Sainz both got in collisions and received time penalties. Some overachievers were likely Alex Albon (5th) and Lance Stroll (7th).
There are a few storylines that are set to take center stage this weekend at Monza, with a few more almost certain to emerge. The first is the ongoing title fight. Lando Norris' hopes took a big hit due to an engine failure. He sits 34 points behind teammate Oscar Piastri, whose consistency will make it difficult for Norris to climb back. There's still plenty of racing, but Norris needs to start chipping away.
The other is Ferrari. Monza is their home track and one the team spends a lot of resources on to ensure a good showing. Coming off a disastrous double-DNF at Zandvoort, they'll be even more desperate to turn things around.
Key Stats at Monza
- Races: 79
- Winners from pole: 26
- Winners from top-5 starters: 67
- Winners from top-10 starters: 78
Previous 10 Monza Winners
2024- Charles Leclerc
2023- Max Verstappen
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 - Daniel Ricciardo
2020 - Pierre Gasly
2019 - Charles Leclerc
2018 - Lewis Hamilton
2017 - Lewis Hamilton
2016 - Nico Rosberg
2015 - Lewis Hamilton
Monza is known as the "Temple of Speed," so it won't be surprising to hear that it's one of the fastest tracks on the calendar and among the highest full-throttle circuits. We're over a year removed from some alterations to the track we first saw last summer, including removing the curbs from the iconic chicane and turns 9 and 10, and a repave.
Pirelli have issued its typical press release prior to the race weekend. Drivers will have the C3, C4 and C5 tires, near the softest possible combination available. Pirelli noted it doesn't expect the repaved track to have aged much, but it does believe graining and tire wear will slow a bit. Most teams will run a one-stop strategy.
DraftKings Value Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Oscar Piastri - $14,000
Lando Norris - $13,400
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Max Verstappen - $10,800
Charles Leclerc - $10,400
George Russell - $10,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Fernando Alonso- $6,200
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $6,000
Isack Hadar - $5,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Gabriel Bortoleto - $4,000
Lance Stroll - $3,600
Oliver Bearman - $3,400
Constructor Values
McLaren- $17,000
Ferrari - $9,900
Williams - $3,600
Racing Bulls - $3,500
Aston Martin - $3,200
Formula 1 DFS Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Captain – Oscar Piastri - $21,000
Charles Leclerc- $10,400
Fernando Alonso - $6,200
Isack Hadjar - $5,000
Gabriel Bortoleto- $4,000
Constructor- Aston Martin - $3,200
DraftKings maintained its aggressive pricing at the top end of the driver and constructor pool. Stacking either Piastri or Norris as Captain with McLaren is now mathematically impossible, which is good for gameplay based on what we've seen this season. Given the inconsistency we've seen from individual drivers, I'd prioritize building through either Piastri or Norris. No driver is consistently challenging either of them, even Max Verstappen. In contrast, there are a lot of teams on the low-end of the price range that can challenge to have both cars in the points. Qualifying will go a long way to dictating which midfield team should be prioritized, but Aston Martin has been on track in the last few races. Williams would be my second choice prior to Saturday morning.
Ferrari has not had the season they wanted, and last weekend was a disaster. That presents some risk, but the team always seems to deliver at their home race. Leclerc won last year, and Ferrari has had at least one driver on the podium in each of the last three years. I'd prioritize Leclerc over Hamilton despite the $1,400 discrepancy in price.
Isack Hadjar had lost momentum entering last weekend, but he put up an impressive podium performance and should be in consideration depending on his qualifying performance. Kick Sauber has lost some momentum to the aforementioned midfield teams like Williams and Aston Martin, but Bortoleto seems to have a pace advantage over teammate Nico Hulkenberg. Bortoleto has recorded double-digit DK points in three of his last five races.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Italian Grand Prix
Race Winner: Charles Leclerc - +500
Podium Finish: Max Verstappen - +105
Points Finish: Isack Hadjar (+145), Fernando Alonso (+160), Gabriel Bortoleto (+175), Lance Stroll (+220)
Winning Margin: Under 5 seconds (-125)
There isn't much value to be had in wagering on the race winner unless we move away from Piastri and Norrs, both of whom are at +135 at the time of drafting this article. Unsurprisingly, Ferrari has looked sharp through the first day of practice, with Hamilton fastest in FP1 and Leclerc second-fastest (only to Norris) in FP2.
For those not buying the Ferrari hype, a reasonable position to take given its recent form, Verstappen for a podium position is good value. Wagering on Leclerc to win and Verstappen to finish on the podium isn't optimal, because that would mean one of Piastri or Norris falls out of the top three, something that looks very unlikely. Getting Verstappen at plus-odds to finish on the podium is always worth considering.
Wagering on points finishers is also tricky because of how fluid the midfield is, but most value will likely be gone after qualifying. The Kick Sauber team has historically performed well at Monza, even when the car was particularly poor. Valtteri Bottas secured points in 2023, while Zhou Guanyu did the same in 2022. Bortoleto has some intrigue at his value based on those results and the current improved pace of the car.
Finally, this race is typically fairly close. Verstappen won by six seconds in 2023 when Red Bull had a massive advantage over the entire field, but typically, we've the winner clear of second place by roughly 2.5 seconds.
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