This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Most Annoying Game in NFL History
Before I can even turn my attention to Week 10, I have to get the final game of Week 9 out of my system. It's like a toxic gas that's rotted me physically, emotionally and spiritually. There was honestly a point in the third quarter (probably when Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's interception somehow became a T.Y. Hilton touchdown) when I questioned how it were possible the Big Bang and the 14-billion-odd years since, spanning dinosaurs, ice ages, supervolcanos and the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, could lead to me sitting in my office watching such a spectacle. Surely, history was just an elaborate long con, a ruse to set me up for this ultimate trolling.
Lest you think I'm exaggerating, here are some pertinent details:
• I am a Giants fan. With the Yankees having an unfair spending advantage and the Knicks and Islanders being perennial doormats, this is the only professional sports team about which I care deeply.
• I made the Giants +3 my best bet. One can question the wisdom of that, but the fact isn't in dispute.
• I had several Giants and Colts in my fantasy lineups and was going against people with Giants and Colts. I lost all five of those leagues, including three NFFC ones and the Stopa $10K one where Kevin Payne had Adam Vinatieri and Coby Fleener, and I had Ahmad Bradshaw and a 15-point lead.
• The Giants dropped four passes in the first half and several more in the second.
• The Colts scored their first touchdown when the Giants defense wasn't ready because it was waiting for coach Tom Coughlin to get his challenge flag out of his sock (seriously) for a questionable call on the previous play. Why would he not keep the flag in his pocket? It's not as if he were in this situation.
•Vontae Davis interfered with Rueben Randle on a deep ball in the end zone that wasn't called.
• The Colts scored their second touchdown on the Rodgers-Cromartie interception.
•Antrel Rolle dropped an interception thrown right into his hands.
•Prince Amukamara, the team's best cover corner, left in the second quarter with a torn biceps that knocked him out for the season.
• The Colts fumbled three times and lost none of them.
And this is leaving out the smaller, death-by-paper-cut details like the repeated, pointless hand-offs to Andre Williams and Peyton Hillis, the soul-crushing fumble by Eli Manning on his own five-yard line, the decision to bring a kick out of the end zone at the end of the first half and get tackled on the seven-yard line, a 4th-and-1 punt down 37-10 in the third quarter, even an Ahmad Bradshaw drop, leading to a Vinatieri FG that would likely have swung one of the NFFC contests in my favor.
When I write it all down, it actually doesn't sound quite as bad as I remember. I suppose my expectations were too high. The NFL is, after all, a game of disaster and failure, and even though our hunches about how things will play out are occasionally on the mark, being wrong - and often totally and completely wrong - is not only common, it's the default setting.
Year of the Small Receiver
I've mentioned this in passing before. Whereas the the last several seasons have been dominated by the monstrous new prototype (Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon and A.J. Green, all of whom are at least 6-2 or 208 pounds, most quite a bit larger), the first half of 2014 has belonged to the little guy.
Of the top-10 WR in fantasy points, seven (Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, DeSean Jackson and Golden Tate) are 6-0 or smaller and 198 pounds or lighter. In fact, if you remove Maclin (6-0, 198), the tallest is Sanders (5-11) and the heaviest is Tate (195).
This could simply be a half-season anomaly, and it will always be the case bigger receivers can more easily make plays when they're less open. But when you consider the rules have changed from 2013 to 2014 where defensive backs are getting flagged for even minimal contact beyond five yards, this could instead be the start of an enduring trend. Not only would smaller receivers be more affected by slight pushing and shoving when the ball's in the air, but they're also typically quicker laterally. Remove the ability of DBs to jostle receivers slightly as the pass arrives and also re-route them further down the field, and maybe the size advantage diminishes.
If this is a new trend - and we won't know for sure until after a full season or two under these rules - it illustrates the perils of too rigidly clinging to a model, the underlying assumptions of which can always become outdated. While it's reasonable to say: "I'll draft the big receivers, and if Antonio Brown (the only top-10 receiver under 6-2 and 208 pounds last year) slips through the cracks so be it," you're in trouble if the cracks are so wide you're missing out on 70 percent of the league's best pass catchers - many at discounted prices.
Two other dynamics that might be at work are that big receivers are possibly less durable than small ones. Part of the reason the little guys dominate the leaderboard so far is injuries to Green, Calvin Johnson and Marshall as well as Gordon's suspension. Some of that is undoubtedly bad luck, but it's plausible bigger bodies running and cutting at high speed are at greater risk, and they're also less elusive, so they take bigger hits and play a more aggressive tackle-breaking style.
The other issue is perhaps a disprortionate number of elite small receivers are paired with top quarterbacks: Sanders (Manning), Cobb (Rodgers), Brown (Roethlisberger), Maclin (Chip Kelly's system), Hilton (Luck). In fact, the quarterback/system might matter quite a bit more in their case, whereas anyone can throw the ball to Green, Calvin Johnson, Jeffery or Gordon, and the receiver can put up big numbers.
Millionaire Maker
I'm not much into Daily Fantasy, mostly because I have enough action in my season-long leagues and ATS and survivor picks, but Michael Rathburn tweeted something about an overlay in the DraftKings weekly Millionare Maker event at about 8:00 am PT, and I figured I'd give it a shot. (I'd be surprised if the overlay still persisted up to kickoff, but for whatever reason his tweet got me to take a shot.)
My philosophy in a massive contest is to make some weird picks and stack a team no one would stack. The odds the Raiders score 35 on the Seahawks are slim, but not nearly as slim as the odds of you beating out 100,000 other people. The team I bankrolled this week was, not surprisingly, the Giants, but my Mike Evans, Jeremy Hill (everyone had him, I know), DeAndre Hopkins and Rob Gronkowski picks had me in good shape heading into Monday night. I also had LeSean McCoy who did okay and Dez Bryant who killed me, but I was within range of winning decent money if the Giants went off. And in fact two of my three - Eli Manning and Odell Beckham - actually did pretty well. My third, unfortunately, was the Giants defense which got -3, and I ended up turning my $27 into $50.
I might play again this week if I see an angle, or I might sit it out, depending whether I have a lean. I realize there are pros playing 100 or more entries though, and I'm pretty sure they're stacking all kinds of crazy combinations of teams, so I'm under no delusion I'm actually going to win. Actually, that's not true - I have some small, occasional delusion to that effect.
Week 9 Observations
•Andre Williams is fast and powerful, but he lacks vision. I used to think 90 percent of running backs were basically the same with only elite ones having discernable skills, but I'm starting to respect the Rashad Jennings types - pass catching, patience, vision - more after seeing a pure athlete like Williams plod straight ahead into tacklers. Jennings could be back this week, but that he had no shot at playing Monday night doesn't bode well.
•Odell Beckham looks like he could be a star, especially in the new environment that appears conducive to smaller wideouts.
• A lot of pundits were on Rueben Randle this year, and I was intrigued because he was a young third-year player with good size/speed/length. But as a Giants fan and someone who covers them, it was hard to buy in. He made a few plays last year, but his focus came and went, and already Beckham has shown more spark than Randle ever has. Then again I was all-in on Aaron Dobson based on his measureables, situation and Year 2 status.
• Despite giving up 40 points, the Giants defense didn't play that badly, but losing Amukamara, a borderline Pro Bowl player, is devastating to a unit that was already paper thin at corner.
•Andrew Luck attempted 45 passes in a blowout win. He has 393 through nine games, a pace for 699, which would be the second most all time. Luck wasn't sharp Monday night, but gift him two long TDs, and the results are going to be good.
• A few days after coach Chuck Pagano said Donte Moncrief is someone he'd like to get "as many touches as possible," Moncrief saw 25 offensive snaps and one target for two yards.
• There were 13 games this week, three in the afternoon and one each on Thursday, Sunday and Monday. That left seven early games, which means 14 quarterbacks, eight of which were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez, Brandon Weeden, Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles. Throw in Philip Rivers during arguably the worst game of his career, game manager Alex Smith, a shaky Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin in his first game back from a major injury, and the stars of the early going were Ryan Tannehill and Carson Palmer. Just in case you were wondering why the slate wasn't especially compelling.
• Just when I felt vindicated Julian Edelman was indeed an afterthought in a full-strength New England offense, he has a nine-catch game and scores twice (though one was on a kick return.) I doubt he'll find the end zone often (he also dropped a third TD), but Reggie Wayne is probably a good comp for him at this point – a regular option who operates largely between the 20s and doesn't make big plays (Monday night's TD aside.)
• While Peyton Manning threw for 438 yards on 7.7 YPA, much of it was in garbage time, and he didn't look especially sharp. Tom Brady had 333 yards on 6.3 YPA, but converted the key third and fourth downs and threw only one pick on a tipped pass.
• None of the backs for NE or DEN had any room to run, but Ronnie Hillman scored two touchdowns and caught seven balls for 47 yards.
• Sanders had another 16 targets and 10 catches. While his role isn't that much bigger than the departed Eric Decker's it overlaps more heavily with Wes Welker's (seven targets, three catches.) It's hard to see what Welker does better than Sanders, so it's as it should be.
•Julius Thomas scored a touchdown, but simply hasn't been targeted much the last several games for some odd reason. He's still the No. 3 overall TE.
• If we were to draft today for the rest of the year, Rob Gronkowski would be a mid-first round pick, early-first in PPR.
• A 10-yard holding penalty on an incomplete pass isn't a big deal – it's more like a five-yard penalty because you get the down back.
• The 49ers pulled a Norv-Turner Chargers/Wade Phillips-Jason Garrett Cowboys at the end of Sunday's game, fumbling the would-be game-winning QB sneak into a loss. I suppose it can happen to anyone, but you don't expect it from a team that made the NFC title game three years running. I didn't catch much of the game, but teams with new centers (rookie Marcus Martin made his first start) often struggle, and the Rams did sack Colin Kaepernick eight times.
• The Jets apparently peaked in their Thursday night loss to New England a few weeks ago. The Chiefs went into a shell late and gave New York so many chances for a backdoor cover, but the Jets refused to take it, fittingly throwing the ball out of the back of the end zone on the last play of the game. At least Michael Vick got both Eric Decker and Percy Harvin involved.
• I had the Bengals in survivor this week and was feeling pretty comfortable before they allowed a quick score, then Andy Dalton threw an incredibly sloppy pick where the ball slipped out of his hand. Suddenly, they were up only three with eight minutes left. But on the next play from scrimmage, Jeremy Hill took a handoff and rumbled for a 60-yard touchdown. Just a bizarre game, and one that made it hard to get behind Cincinnati as a serious contender.
• If Blake Bortles ever lives up to his pedigree, he has some nice weapons in Jacksonville with Allen Hurns making plays since Week 1 (despite a few bad drops), Allen Robinson providing size and speed, Cecil Shorts and Marqise Lee. And this is a team that spent the No. 5 overall pick on Justin Blackmon with nothing to show for it only two years ago.
•Denard Robinson is the team's clear top RB, but it's odd he doesn't catch more passes, given he's also played receiver. Still, that he got 94 yards and a score on the road when his team was a 10.5-point underdog bodes well.
•Nick Foles is out indefinitely, and that makes Mark Sanchez an interesting player on whom to speculate. But how Sanchez plays probably says more about Foles than it does Sanchez. If Sanchez thrives in the Eagles system, it probably means Foles is nothing special despite an otherworldly stat line in 2013.
• As great as Maclin's been, I can't even imagine how tough the Eagles would be to defend had they kept Jackson instead of extending Riley Cooper's carcass.
•Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible during the portions of the game I watched. I wouldn't even want him as my backup. Apparently the Texans are considering replacing him with Ryan Mallet. What's there to consider? Make the switch and see what you have.
• I honestly thought the Chargers were better than the Dolphins (as did the market as the line was less than three in Miami.) But the Dolphins might have the best defense in the NFL, and what if Ryan Tannehill is becoming a good quarterback?
• With Tony Romo healthy, the Cowboys overworked DeMarco Murray all year, but with Brandon Weeden under center Murray got only 19 carries. I suppose it helps more to have sustained drives than it does to be the only game in town.
• The Ravens-Steelers game was exactly like the Texans-Steelers one where Pittsburgh's opponent was crushing them until a flurry of turnovers and quick scores in the second quarter turned the game upside down. Given the Steelers' mediocre defense and suddenly deep and talented receiving corps, Ben Roethlisberger is a top-10 QB the rest of the way – (not going out on a huge limb given he just set the record for TDs the last two games with 12.) It's also nice finally to see some blowouts in this rivalry after 10 years of nail-biting, coin-flip, field-goal games.
