This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 3 tickets went 3-1, with two of the three longer-odds hitting. Despite the Cowboys beating up the Dolphins 31-6, 21 of the 31 Dallas points came in the second half, and none of their scores were because of Ezekiel Elliott, which killed the first-half touchdown odds bet, as well as those who took the anytime touchdown at -280. Fantasy owners were at least happy with his 125 rushing yards, but touchdown betters were left empty.
However, the Cowboys winning by 25 and the Patriots beating the Jets 30-14 meant that both teams won by 14+, allowing us to get that parlay at -133 instead of the -1309 for the moneyline parlay. Separately, the Panthers' 38-20 win over the Cardinals in Arizona meant the "both teams to score 20" bet hit at +140, while Demarcus Robinson's touchdown in the Chiefs' win over the Ravens meant we took that bet home at +230.
There are two teams on byes this week, which means we don't have quite as many games to choose from, but here's what caught my eye for Week 4.
Chargers to win by 1-13 (+175)
Let's not forget that the Dolphins have been historically bad through three weeks, and once again they are double-digit underdogs despite playing at home. However, the 14.0-point spread is down 2.5 points since it's high, and there is plenty of momentum for Miami against a Chargers team playing a 10:00 a.m. body clock game. Then again, the Chargers -14 is -120 while the Dolphins +14 is +100, so it's not like there is significant enough money on the Dolphins to really think they have a chance (the Chargers moneyline is -900). However, if this game can stay close, the Chargers winning by less than two touchdowns pays much better than the moneyline, and even if you think it's a total blowout, -145 for a win by 14+ is a significantly better payoff than -900.
Titans under 21 points (-110)
It's really tough to feel optimistic about the Titans' offense, one that managed to score seven points last week against the Jaguars and 17 against the Colts in Week 2, making their 43-13 win over the Browns in Week 1 seems like a total fluke. The Falcons' defense is hardly a dominant unit, but the team as a whole is better at home and held the Eagles to 20 points in their one game in Atlanta this season. The Eagles, even with their struggles, have a significantly better offense than Tennessee, and while they do have the advantage of extra prep time for this game after playing Thursday night in Week 3, we'll have to see significantly different schemes for them to be able to keep pace with the Falcons.
Chiefs over 31 points (-112)
The Chiefs vs. Lions game has seen the spread jump from Lions +5.0 at open to now +7.5 because of uncertainty about quarterback Matthew Stafford's availability. A strong 54.5-point total that's basically unchanged despite the injury news is the highest of the week, but it might be tough for the Lions to keep up their end of the bargain if Stafford is limited by his hip injury, even though he's expected to play. Instead of taking the Chiefs -7.5 at +110 or the moneyline at -320, why not focus on their points and expect them to clear 31 points, which they did in their 40-26 win over the Jaguars in Week 1 and their 33-28 win over the Ravens in Week 3? They came up short of that total in Week 2 against the Raiders, winning that one 28-10, but it's clear the Chiefs rely on outscoring opponents to win games, and while Detroit's defense isn't bad, let's be real here about the points Kansas City can put up.
Marlon Mack anytime touchdown and Colts win (+135)
The Colts are 7.0-point favorites at home against the Raiders, who have decent stats against running backs, though they got absolutely gouged by Dalvin Cook last week for 143 total yards and a touchdown. Mack is not the same player as Cook, but the Colts do rely on him quite a bit because they don't let quarterback Jacoby Brissett be as aggressive as Andrew Luck was. Cook's anytime touchdown odds are -115 on their own, but adding in the expectation that he scores and they win enhances the payout. If this kind of bet is in you wheelhouse, a Mark Ingram anytime touchdown and Ravens win is +145, and a parlay of these two is +476 (yes, this is a parlay of two parlays and extremely dumb).
Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown (+135)
The Jaguars are 3.0-point underdogs in Denver, with the 38.0-point total tied for the lowest of Week 4. Fournette has done very little to justify any consideration for anything, but there's little doubt that he should get at least 20 touches in this game because of the lack of depth behind him and the fact that Gardner Minshew is under center for Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Broncos have given up at least one rushing touchdown in all three of their games this season, and if the Jaguars get close to the goal line, it'll be Fournette who gets the opportunity. And if you're feeling aggressive about Jacksonville's win chances, Fournette scoring and the Jags winning is +300.
