IDP Analysis: Values at Defensive Line

This is the first of a three-part series in which we'll identify players that RotoWire has ranked higher than the overall industry rankings. By using this guide, you should be able to find values throughout your draft, which will allow you to wait significantly later than your competitors to select IDPs.  

After discussing draft strategies last week, it's critical to go into your draft planning knowing whether you're going to stream defensive players all season, draft players with late-season byes to keep you from having to potentially drop IDPs early in the campaign or, if you have the roster flexibility, draft the best options and make seasonal moves as needed. Also, as we noted, the amount of IDPs needed can be vastly different in leagues, with many leagues needing just a single player per position grouping (DL, LB, DB) along with a flex while other leagues will require a full lineup of players. The purpose of this article is to address the needs of all as best as possible.

We'll start this series by looking at defensive linemen. Although we'll address ends and tackles together, you'll notice that should you need to split your picks between the positions, there are plenty of values regardless of roster needs. 

Landing a projected top-12 lineman might not be a difficult task at all, as we have five players ranked well ahead of the consensus.

Sam Hubbard, DE -  Hubbard is a full seven spots ahead of the industry consensus at No. 3 in the RotoWire rankings. He is an ideal target once a good number of DLs have come off the board. Not only did he show he could log heavy snaps last year, but he continued the productive rate he saw as a rookie in 2018, and his early career numbers have come out to 76 tackles and 9.6 sacks per 16 games.

 Montez Sweat, DE - We have aggressively ranked Sweat as a top-5 D-lineman, though he often will go undrafted in some IDP leagues, making him a great target for those who prefer to address the line late in drafts. The fantasy community is down on him because Washington has a plethora of options along the defensive line, but Sweat's athletic profile is off the charts, and he should  have no issue earning a prominent role that will translate into superstar status this year.

Josh Allen, DE - Allen made the most of the 646 snaps he saw as a rookie, turning those into 44 tackles and 10.5 sacks. With the Jacksonville defense going through major transition, Allen could become a centerpiece of the unit, and his snaps could increase by nearly 100. Assuming the 2019 seventh overall pick shows continued improvement, he'll be a draft-day steal, as he typically is selected in 20-26 range among DLs.

 Arik Armstead, DE -  Armstead was excellent last year, posting 10 sacks and 54 tackles. With DeForest Buckner no longer on the team, Armstead's snaps should increase as he plays both tackle and end. And as opponents are mostly concerned with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, Armstead should continue to take advantage while his teammates see the majority of double teams. He should have more sacks this year while continuing to post a respectable tackle total.

 Jonathan Allen, DT - Allen's one disadvantage is that he's part of a loaded defensive line in Washington, but the upside is that he's improved over his first three seasons in the league to become one of the better interior linemen in the NFL. Although he may not see more than 750 snaps, he should get enough rest to stay fresh, and as part of new coach Ron Rivera's aggressive defensive scheme, he should see an increase in production that makes him a strong value in drafts.

Grady Jarrett , DT - Jarrett is our 13th-ranked defensive lineman, nine spots ahead of consensus. The 27-year-old is one of the most dominant interior linemen in the league, as he's a force against the run while putting a high level of pressure on QBs. After posting an excellent line of 69 tackles and 7.5 sacks last year, he still has the ability to improve on those numbers and should easily outperform his ADP.

 Matthew Ioannidis, DE - Ioannidis is our 21st DL, though he's typically selected outside the top 40 at his position. Yes, we realize we're bullish on the Washington defensive linemen (see above), but the team has put together one amazing group of linemen. Ioannidis will fit in well with coach Ron Rivera's aggressive scheme. And after breaking out last year with 64 tackles and 8.5 sacks, he'll continue to see enough snaps to at least match those numbers, though there's upside for more, especially in the sack column.

Sheldon Richardson, DT - Richardson had a solid 62 tackles, three forced fumbles and three sacks in his first year with the Browns last season, and with Myles Garrett back from suspension and Olivier Vernon hopefully healthy, the 29-year-old tackle has an excellent chance to improve upon last year's numbers as his teammates figure to be the focus of offensive protection schemes. Richardson is often drafted outside the top-36 DLs, offering great value.

Danny Shelton, DT - Shelton broke out last season when he was acquired by the Patriots in a trade, and he now moves to New England "west" after signing with coach Matt Patricia's Lions. Unlike his tenure with the Pats, there aren't as many talented rotational players in Detroit, so he should see a strong snap total, which should help him to build on last year's 61 tackles and three sacks. Shelton is often drafted outside the top-60 at the position, basically making him free. 

Linval Joseph, DT - Joseph played in 13 games last year, which is why he posted fewer than 56 tackles for the first time since 2012. In the offseason, he signed with the Chargers, and he's expected to slot in as the primary nose tackle, where he should continue to be a big factor against the run while also chipping in with an occasional sack.  Joseph should give a return on investment as he, like Shelton, is also being drafted outside the top 60. 

Clelin Ferrell , DE - Ferrell, our 34th-ranked DL, didn't have as big an impact in his rookie year, as he collected just 4.5 sacks to go with 38 tackles. However, he saw his snaps reduced significantly  the last five weeks of the season. Coming into his second year, expect the No. 4 overall pick to significantly improve after bulking up to 275 pounds in the offseason, which will give him the type of body he'll need to consistently win against the type of defensive attention he saw last year. Also, as his snaps reflect his role as a cornerstone of the defense, and this may be the last year to get him at a discount in IDP leagues.

Bruce Irvin, DE - Irvin, our 35th-ranked DL, was given regular snaps last year in Carolina, and he didn't disappoint by posting a career-high 8.5 sacks in his age-31 season. Now that he's back with the Seahawks, who drafted him in 2012, he's expected to retain a significant snap share. Whenever he's been given a large role (since 2016), he's always been a solid source of tackles and sacks.

Now that we've addressed the defensive line, the next article in this series will address linebacker.