This article is part of our Survivor series.
Surviving Week 1
I used to dread writing the Week 1 Survivor column because it was so treacherous. Lose in Week 1, and you've lit your entry fee on fire, and what did you get for it? One week of misery watching your team lose without any enjoyment or payoff. But that was before I actually lost a few times in Week 1, and now I'm over it. Of course, you don't want to lose, and you will be understandably apoplectic if you do, but it's the risk you run. Teams are rarely more than 90 percent favorites, and this week, no one is above 80. Consider whether you'd get on an airplane with an 80 percent change of making it in real life Survivor! That's the situation this week. On the bright side it also means if you do make it to Week 2, chances are some of your fellow pool entrants will not.
Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.
Bottom line, the goal in Survivor is to pick one winner per week, but you can't use the same team twice. While the game is called "Survivor" it really should be called "Sole Survivor" because (and you'll understand better if