NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 7 Odds, Over/Unders and Spreads
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 7 Odds (Opening/Current)
Week 7 NFL Lines (odds via BetMGM)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Bengals -4.5 O/U 46.5) / (Steelers -5.5 O/U 42.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (Rams -4.5 O/U 47.5) / (Rams -3.0 O/U 45.0)
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (Eagles -3.0 O/U 44.5) / (Eagles -2.0 O/U 43.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -9.5 O/U 45.5) / (Chiefs -12.0 O/U 45.5)
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (Dolphins -1.5 O/U 43.5) / (Browns -2.5 O/U 40.5)
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (Jets -1.5 O/U 43.5) / (Panthers -2.0 O/U 42.5)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (Patriots -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Patriots -7.0 O/U 42.0)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Bears -7.5 O/U 44.5) / (Bears -5.5 O/U 46.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -6.0 O/U 45.5) / (Chargers -1.5 O/U 48.5)
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (Broncos -7.5 O/U 42.5) / (Broncos -7.0 O/U 40.5)
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (Commanders -2.5 O/U 48.5) / (Commanders -2.5 O/U 54.5)
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Packers -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Packers -6.5 O/U 44.5)
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (49ers -6.5 O/U 47.5) / (49ers -3.0 O/U 47.0)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Lions -3.5 O/U 49.5) / (Lions -4.5 O/U 52.5)
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Seahawks -3.5 O/U 41.0)
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NFL Week 7 Key Injury News
QB - Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz
RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Tyrone Tracy, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren
WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker, Cedric Tillman, CeeDee Lamb, Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison, DJ Moore, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson
TE - Colston Loveland, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, David Njoku, Brenton Strange
Other notables
OL Landon Dickerson, LB Matt Milano, LB Jack Sanborn, DB Terrion Arnold, S Justin Reid, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, OL Ronnie Stanley, DT Ed Oliver, OL Taylor Decker, OL Joe Alt, OL Rashawn Slater, OL Jake Matthews, LB Fred Warner
NFL Week 7 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Chiefs -12.0 vs. Raiders
- The lowest spreads are Eagles -1.0 at Vikings; Colts at Chargers -1.5
- There is only 1 game with a line of higher than 7 points
- The highest total game is Commanders/Cowboys 54.5; the lowest total is Broncos/Giants 40.5 and Browns/Dolphins 40.5
- There are 7 road favorites in Week 7 (Road Favs are 17-16 ATS on the season)
- There is a heavy concentration of totals between 40-43 points
- The highest team totals are Chiefs, Bears, Commanders, Bucs, Lions, Cowboys
- The lowest team totals are Bengals, Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, Cardinals
NFL Week 7 ATS Observations
- 8 teams are 4-2 Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Patriots, Jaguars, Bucs, Panthers, Rams
- Ravens 1-5
- 6 teams are 2-4 Saints, Browns, Raiders, Titans, Bengals, Bills
Over/Under Records
OVER
- Ravens, Dolphins 5-1
- Vikings 4-1
- Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Bucs, Jets, 49ers 4-2
UNDER
- Broncos, Falcons, Texans 4-1
- Giants, Patriots, Raiders, Chargers, Browns 4-2
NFL Week 7 Line Movement
A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals games will continue to show up in this article as long as Joe Burrow is out. The positive side is that Joe Flacco looked decent on the road against the Packers enough for them to get the cover. The opening line in May was Bengals -4.5, but when it reopened on 10/7, it had swung all the way to Steelers -4.5 for a full 9-point move. The Steelers peaked at -6.0 before seeing them come back a little to -5.5.
The total opened 46.5 and reopened as low as 42.0 before getting back up to 42.5.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
This one will be interesting as the Titans fired head coach Brian Callahan on Monday. It probably will not have an impact on the line, but seeing the Patriots as a full touchdown road favorite just shows how much the Titans' power rating has dropped.
This game originally opened Patriots -1.5, and it reopened last week around -4.0 to -5.0. After the Pats win on the road against the Saints and the Titans loss against the Raiders, this line continued to move in favor of the Pats with a -6.0 and -7.0. I do not expect this number is get beyond a touchdown and the Pats will be a very popular teaser leg.
The total opened 44.5 and has moved down to 43.5, and kept trickling down past the key number of 43 with it bottoming out at 41.5, but ticking back up to 42.0.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers
The Colts are the team that has seen their power rating increase the most so far this season, and their line movement reflects that. The Chargers are also dealing with several injuries on the offensive side of the ball which is probably responsible for 1.0-2.0 points.
The Chargers opened -6.0 home favorites but saw it reopen at -1.5, but there was immediate movement on the Colts which actually pushed them to a -1.0 and -2.0 road favorite, before seeing it bounce back to Chargers -1.5.
The total opened 45.5 and was bet up to 47.5 immediately on reopen, but it also crossed over the key number of 48 and went as high as 48.5, before coming back to 48.0.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
The Packers opened as -1.5 road favorites, and the reopen came back at Packers -4.5, and continued to climb to -5.0, -5.5, -6.0, and now -6.5. So clearly there has been significant money on the Packers but also fading the Cardinals after the Kyler Murray injury.
The Packers failed to cover as 14-point home favorites against the Bengals, while the Cardinals, with Jacoby Brissett, actually hung with the Colts on the road and got a cover as a 7-point road underdog. Arizona actually had the lead 17-14, 24-17, and 27-24 before giving up a late Jonathan Taylor touchdown.
This line move looks to be an overreaction and I can see the Cardinals pulling off a cover similar to the Bengals in Week 6. The total opened 47.5 and has dropped a full 3 points to 44.5.
Other notables
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Dolphins opened -1.5, Browns are currently -2.5, which goes to show how low the Dolphins' power rating has dropped.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets
Similar to the Dolphins/Browns, the Jets opened -1.5, but the Panthers are now -2.5 road favorites
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Total opened 48.5 and has gone up 6 points to 54.5 off the Cowboys offense (good), and defense (bad) .
