This is our second of two Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdowns for Week 4, with the first being the game between the Dolphins and Jets.
In what has turned out to be yet another cruel season for the Bengals in light of Joe Burrow's injury, the Broncos find themselves 'lucky' at 1-2 – now Denver gets to face Jake Browning at elevation, the result being a 6.5-point spread with the Broncos as home favorites. What previously would have been a dangerous matchup for the struggling Broncos has instead become close to a gimme.
QUARTERBACK
Bo Nix ($10600 DK, $12400 FD) has failed to impress in 2025 and might well continue to disappoint in this game, but even so he might be a cashing pick on this potentially low-scoring one-game slate. Nix can pitch in meaningful rushing production to juice his fantasy point total, so even a poor game passing doesn't bar him from central consideration.
It's not as easy to recommend Jake Browning ($10000 DK, $11000 FD) in this game. Browning does not have the running ability that Nix does, and Browning faces a much tougher defense as the road team. Browning was a mess against Minnesota in Week 3 and it's not clear how anything could possibly be easier in Denver.
RUNNING BACK
J.K. Dobbins ($8800 DK, $9200 FD) probably isn't an advisable fade on this slate. Dobbins is the clear lead runner for the Broncos, even if R.J. Harvey ($4800 DK, $5600 FD) makes some noise in this one, and the Broncos are clear home favorites. I'd argue that it would sooner make sense to pick both Dobbins and Harvey than it would to pick only Harvey. The Broncos passing game is not functional and it makes sense that two runners could produce in this game if the Broncos win in the manner generally expected. Tyler Badie is a punt play as the RB3.
Chase Brown ($9600 DK, $12000 FD) is extremely expensive for a player struggling so badly, but at least that should assure low ownership. Someone like Ja'Marr Chase will probably get rostered a good amount even despite facing similar issues, but the optics have been bad enough with Brown that he should be low-owned at this price, or at least much lower owned than anyone would have guessed three weeks ago. If Brown stumbles again it doesn't necessarily mean anyone else will step up in the Bengals backfield – Samaje Perine ($2000 DK, $2600 FD) had a costly fumble in Week 3 and Tahj Brooks ($1400 DK, $1400 FD) has yet to break out otherwise.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Courtland Sutton ($9000 DK, $10400 FD) is a difficult player to fade here, even if you're fading the rest of the Denver passing game. Troy Franklin ($6600 DK, $7400 FD) will likely see the most of Dax Hill, who's probably the best cover guy Cincinnati has, and this all occurs as Marvin Mims ($3600 DK, $5200 FD) is questionable with a hip injury. Sean Payton clearly does not like Mims, anyway – it's a shame they won't trade him to a more serious team. If Franklin is slowed by Hill then it leaves slack for Sutton and potentially the likes of Evan Engram ($4400 DK, $4800 FD), Pat Bryant ($800 DK, $1800 FD) and Trent Sherfield ($1000 DK, $1200 FD). Adam Trautman is mostly a punt play as a blocking specialist TE.
Ja'Marr Chase ($11000 DK, $14200 FD) is awfully expensive for a guy with a CFL quarterback going against the toughest cornerback rotation in the NFL. On the other hand, it's not like there are so many slam-dunk alternatives in this game for the saved money to have a clear secondary use. Tee Higgins ($8400 DK, $9000 FD) is quite a bit more affordable and had a huge game against Denver last year, but the same quarterback pessimism applies to him. If it's rough for guys like Chase and Higgins then the projection is especially bleak for a lesser talent like Andrei Iosivas ($3200 DK, $4200 FD). Mike Gesicki ($2800 DK, $3600 FD) is cheap enough to be a good bargain target with Noah Fant out, while Drew Sample is mostly just a blocking specialist.
KICKER
Wil Lutz ($5400 DK, $7000 FD) and Evan McPherson ($5000 DK, $6600 FD) are both justifiable kicker selections, though with Lutz there's more conventional security as the kicker for the favored, home team. McPherson probably has more range.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Broncos ($5200 DK, $6800 FD) are about as difficult of a fade as a defense can be on a single-game slate. Picking defenses can often go wrong, and for limited upside to boot, but Browning simply isn't very good and going to Denver rarely fixes whatever ails the traveling team. If the Bengals get wiped out in this venue it wouldn't be shocking.
Just the same, the Bengals ($4000 DK, $6200 FD) has its own arguable case as long as Nix continues to struggle for Denver. The difference between the two sides, though, is that Denver's offense faces less pressure in general due to the strength of Denver's defense, and the Denver offense can run the ball. The Bengals might not be able to.
