NFL Props: Monday Night Football Player Props
Week 4 is coming to a close. Hard to believe we're already a month through the season. The longer you've been watching the NFL, the quicker it goes by. The NFL is blessing us with a little double dipper this week, which has fans salivating like one of those vampires from Sinners (solid movie btw, just watched it).
Can't say I blame you, thoug,h because I'm low key feeling the same way. The first game may be between the Jets and Dolphins, but I'd imagine it's still a double dip that George Costanza would roll with. The late game is Cincy and Denver squaring up in at Mile High.
We ate on an absolute freebie from Jahmyr Gibbs last Monday, cashing an EASYYYYY Tuddy right off the bat. Let's see if we can keep it rolling.
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Monday Night Football Week 4 Props
Ollie Gordon TD +340 (FD)
Imagine my disappointment to learn that Ollie Gordon's real name is not Oliver. In shambles right now. But I spoke about this on my podcast earlier in the week. Gordon's TD odds were just under 3/1, but they have ballooned to +340. Not sure why that is, unless there's an injury we don't know about.
Despite a projected garbage game between NYJ and MIA, there's some value on the board. Gordon won't replace De'Von Achane as the RB1 (barring injury), but it looks like he's the unofficial goal line/inside the 5-yard line back. If you saw that TNF game in Week 3 between the Fins and Bills, you saw Gordon get the early looks at the goal line... and he looked good. Strong, powerful, elusive. Gordon isn't just a short-yardage back, but Miami seems like they will be giving him first crack for the foreseeable future. Interesting note as well, Achane has ZERO carries inside the 5-yard line through three games.
Gordon scoring isn't a slam dunk, but it's a really good play, especially when you consider the out-of-whack odds and path to conversion.
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J.K. Dobbins O64.5 rush yards
J.K. Dobbins TD -140
It's hard to know what to do with Denver right now. The Broncos were a team I liked coming into the year, but their offense has stalled out late in games and their supposedly No.1 defense can't come up with the big play late either. They lost their last two games, which realistically should have been wins.
On Monday, they're 7.5 point favorites at home against a reeling Bengals team that gave up a damn near 50-bean in Minny last Sunday. I get it, man, there's always some BS in primetime games. I would want to take Denver with the big spread, but somehow I feel Cincy comes out firing, keeping this thing close. Bounce back for basically everybody.
I would imagine that bounce back includes the defense that got gashed by Jordan Mason. To be honest, though, this is why I didn't love the Bengals coming into the year. That defense is gross. It's who they are.
Dobbins has looked awesome so far this season as the RB1 for Denver. He's riding a three-game TD streak (knock wood), while running for 5.4 YPC through three weeks. The 64.5-yard total on paper seems fair considering Dobby isn't a 20-carry per game guy. But I think it ends up being too low. Dobbins is a candidate for 80+ yards tonight, especially if the Broncos do what they are supposed to do and play with a lead.
I think there's a good shot Dobbins gets 16-18 carries for 80+ yards and a score against Cincy. The Bengals' run defense looks lazy, uninspired, and not talented enough to line up for 60 minutes and try to stop an imposing ground game.
If you were curious, parlaying all three plays gets you +1055 on FanDuel.
I don't hate it, but I think there's a good chance we're walking away with some nice fazools for this MNF slate.
