Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued & Overvalued QBs

Get expert insight from RotoWire on Quarterback values with ADP analysis to spot undervalued fantasy football players, draft steals and sleepers.
Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued & Overvalued QBs

Whether it's injury history, media hype or recency bias, quarterback values can swing wildly. These five passers are mispriced in 2025 fantasy football drafts, and identifying where the public is wrong gives you a real edge.

To stay on top of preseason developments, bookmark the NFL depth charts, and use RotoWire's fantasy football ADP tool to track real-time shifts in quarterback rankings.

Justin Fields, New York Jets – ADP: QB11

Justin Fields is a proven fantasy cheat code when healthy, averaging 853 rushing yards per 17-game season over his career. Only Lamar Jackson rivals his ground-game production, and New York's staff has said they plan to "weaponize" his legs.

However, Fields has missed 11 games over his first three years and lost his job to Russell Wilson in 2024. While not elite as a passer, he's thrown at least one touchdown per game in each of the last three seasons.

He's a week-winner when active, and that's the key caveat. Drafters should pair him with a high-floor backup to hedge. When he stays upright, he's a top-six quarterback in points per game.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears – ADP: QB14

Reports out of camp have been lukewarm, but context matters. Caleb Williams is facing a Dennis Allen-designed defense daily, one of the most complex in football, and that's speeding up his learning curve.

Ben Johnson has full control of the offense and is seeing firsthand where to build around his rookie. Williams has elite weapons and rushed for 489 yards

Whether it's injury history, media hype or recency bias, quarterback values can swing wildly. These five passers are mispriced in 2025 fantasy football drafts, and identifying where the public is wrong gives you a real edge.

To stay on top of preseason developments, bookmark the NFL depth charts, and use RotoWire's fantasy football ADP tool to track real-time shifts in quarterback rankings.

Justin Fields, New York Jets – ADP: QB11

Justin Fields is a proven fantasy cheat code when healthy, averaging 853 rushing yards per 17-game season over his career. Only Lamar Jackson rivals his ground-game production, and New York's staff has said they plan to "weaponize" his legs.

However, Fields has missed 11 games over his first three years and lost his job to Russell Wilson in 2024. While not elite as a passer, he's thrown at least one touchdown per game in each of the last three seasons.

He's a week-winner when active, and that's the key caveat. Drafters should pair him with a high-floor backup to hedge. When he stays upright, he's a top-six quarterback in points per game.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears – ADP: QB14

Reports out of camp have been lukewarm, but context matters. Caleb Williams is facing a Dennis Allen-designed defense daily, one of the most complex in football, and that's speeding up his learning curve.

Ben Johnson has full control of the offense and is seeing firsthand where to build around his rookie. Williams has elite weapons and rushed for 489 yards last year, so his dual-threat ceiling is very real.

There may be bumps early, but don't be surprised if he's a top-10 QB by midseason. His current fantasy football ADP already accounts for the downside, not the upside.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – ADP: QB18

C.J. Stroud burned fantasy drafters last year after an electric rookie season, but that dip may have been predictable. Defenses adjusted to his strengths, and now it's Stroud's turn to counter.

He hinted at a new layer during the NFL playoffs, rushing for 42 yards in back-to-back games. With a strong pass-catching group, Stroud doesn't need a massive leap to justify a big fantasy bounce.

If he adds consistent rushing to his profile, his ceiling expands significantly. He's one of the best fantasy football undervalued players in the middle QB tier.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: QB20

No one's giving Trevor Lawrence the benefit of the doubt, and that's fine. He's struggled with decision-making and hasn't shown consistency in three seasons. But at QB20, you're drafting a flier, not a franchise anchor.

This year's pass-catching group, led by Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, could be his best yet. And while Liam Coen may not be a miracle worker, he's competent enough to stabilize the offense.

Lawrence doesn't have to become elite to beat his ADP; the cost is so low that even average play could return a top-15 finish.

Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders – ADP: QB27

Geno Smith was not a great fantasy option over the last two years following his breakout 2022 season, but his real-life play was serviceable, averaging 3,972 passing yards and 20.5 touchdowns.

Las Vegas projects to have one of the league's worst defenses, which should lead to plenty of pass-heavy scripts. Smith still has Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers and sneaky dual-threat ability with 300-yard rushing upside.

Even if he's just OK, he's cheap insurance in superflex formats or best-ball leagues. Don't overlook him as a late QB3 who could sneak into the top 20 by garbage time alone.

Targeting fantasy football undervalued players like Fields and Stroud can tilt your season in the early weeks, while late-round options like Smith provide a reliable floor with upside. Know the market. Know the risk. And above all: draft for the full season, not just the first month.

Looking for more mispriced player breakdowns, check this out: 


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Coventry was a finalist for the FSWA football writer of the year in 2022. He started playing fantasy football in 1994 and won a national contest in 1996. He also nabbed five top-50 finishes in national contests from 2008 to 2012 before turning his attention to DFS. He's been an industry analyst since 2007, though he joined RotoWire in 2016. A published author, Coventry wrote a book about relationships, "The Secret of Life", in 2013.
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