Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued & Overvalued RBs

Get expert insight from RotoWire on RB values with ADP analysis to spot overvalued and undervalued fantasy football players, draft steals, and sleepers.
Fantasy Football ADP Analysis - Undervalued & Overvalued RBs

Not every fantasy football mistake comes from drafting a bust or ignoring a breakout. Often, it's the mispriced names - players going a number of picks too high or too low - that define a draft. These five running backs are either overvalued or undervalued in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Understanding the gap between cost and expected production is your edge.

Explore full ADP fantasy football data to track rising and falling values, or use the RotoWire Fantasy Football Draft Kit to simulate how these RBs fit your team build.

Breece Hall,  New York Jets - ADP: RB13

One year removed from being a first-rounder in fantasy, Breece Hall is now priced like a fringe RB1.

Hall's 2024 struggles were puzzling given the Jets upgraded their offensive line. He posted a career-low 4.2 YPC and fell below average in broken tackles and yards after contact after previously excelling in both areas. But the key detail? Hall admitted he played most of the season with an MCL sprain.

If healthy, there's no one on the roster who can touch his workload. Ignore offseason "committee" talk: Hall is the same player we loved last year but now at a discount. In fantasy football ADP terms, he's being drafted closer to his floor than ceiling.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks - ADP: RB15

Kenneth Walker is being drafted as if he's reliable, efficient and in control of his backfield. However, he's none of those things.

His yards per carry have declined each season (4.6 to 4.1

Not every fantasy football mistake comes from drafting a bust or ignoring a breakout. Often, it's the mispriced names - players going a number of picks too high or too low - that define a draft. These five running backs are either overvalued or undervalued in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Understanding the gap between cost and expected production is your edge.

Explore full ADP fantasy football data to track rising and falling values, or use the RotoWire Fantasy Football Draft Kit to simulate how these RBs fit your team build.

Breece Hall,  New York Jets - ADP: RB13

One year removed from being a first-rounder in fantasy, Breece Hall is now priced like a fringe RB1.

Hall's 2024 struggles were puzzling given the Jets upgraded their offensive line. He posted a career-low 4.2 YPC and fell below average in broken tackles and yards after contact after previously excelling in both areas. But the key detail? Hall admitted he played most of the season with an MCL sprain.

If healthy, there's no one on the roster who can touch his workload. Ignore offseason "committee" talk: Hall is the same player we loved last year but now at a discount. In fantasy football ADP terms, he's being drafted closer to his floor than ceiling.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks - ADP: RB15

Kenneth Walker is being drafted as if he's reliable, efficient and in control of his backfield. However, he's none of those things.

His yards per carry have declined each season (4.6 to 4.1 to 3.7), and Zach Charbonnet carved out more rushing work late last year. This is looking more like a split than expected.

Add in Walker's durability issues (he's never played more than 15 games) and his ADP looks like a worst-case value trap. You're drafting him at a ceiling that has never existed.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals-  ADP: RB22

Nobody disrespects ADP like James Conner.

He's averaged 4.6 and 5.0 YPC the past two seasons, his most efficient stretch ever, and continues to deliver in the passing game with at least 46 catches in two of the last three years.

Yes, he usually misses 2–3 games, but that's the norm for RBs. He just signed an extension and remains the centerpiece of Arizona's offense. Trey Benson may mix in, but Conner's role is safe. Every year he's underpriced; don't miss the value again.

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears- ADP: RB24

D'Andre Swift isn't flashy, but his volume and role are extremely fantasy friendly.

He's averaged 241 carries across the past two years and has caught between 39-48 passes in four of his five NFL seasons. Now he's running behind an improved Bears O-line and facing minimal competition.

Roschon Johnson struggled badly in broken tackles and yards after contact (bottom fifth percentile), and seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai is unlikely to matter. With high volume and durability the past two seasons, Swift has an easy path to outperform his fantasy football ADP price.

Nick Chubb, Houston Texans – ADP: RB60

Nick Chubb was never going to matter in 2024 after his devastating 2023 knee injury. That he even returned for a few games before breaking his foot was miraculous.

Now two years removed from the knee injury, reports suggest Chubb is back to pre-injury form, squatting massive weight and flashing his trademark burst. If he's 80 percent of the player he once was, he's easily better than Joe Mixon, who was one of the least efficient backs in football last season.

Chubb is nearly free in drafts. There's no risk at RB60, but a top-20 finish isn't off the table if he's healthy.

Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football Undervalued RBs

These are the types of mispriced RBs who win fantasy leagues. Don't just trust consensus ADP - understand player context, team changes and where opportunity meets talent.

Looking for more in-depth ADP coverage? Check this out:  

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Coventry was a finalist for the FSWA football writer of the year in 2022. He started playing fantasy football in 1994 and won a national contest in 1996. He also nabbed five top-50 finishes in national contests from 2008 to 2012 before turning his attention to DFS. He's been an industry analyst since 2007, though he joined RotoWire in 2016. A published author, Coventry wrote a book about relationships, "The Secret of Life", in 2013.
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