In fantasy football, chasing upside is tempting, but not when the price is steep. This breakdown flags five quarterbacks who are currently overvalued based on offensive context, durability concerns, or inflated fantasy football ADP expectations. Whether you're building around safe floor or hunting for ceiling, these are the QBs to think twice about before clicking "draft."
Before your next pick, check the full ADP fantasy football board or build sample rosters using our fantasy football draft software.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP: QB6
Patrick Mahomes still gets the "elite" tag in fantasy, but recent production doesn't support it.
Since Tyreek Hill left, Mahomes has produced like a fringe QB1, not a weekly difference-maker. The 2024 season was supposed to be different with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, rookie Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in the fold. Instead, injuries and inconsistency returned, and Mahomes went back to game-managing.
Kelce is aging. Worthy likely returns to his deep-threat role. Brown is already hurt. The Chiefs are focused on January wins, not regular-season stat padding. Paying QB6 prices assumes a ceiling that hasn't shown up in over a year.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – ADP: QB8
Bo Nix finished 2024 strong, averaging 26.9 fantasy points in Weeks 15-18.
That late-season surge pushed him to QB8 in current ADP. But fantasy drafters may be ignoring Denver's drastic offseason shifts. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey were added to fix the run game. The offensive line is elite. And the defense, already
In fantasy football, chasing upside is tempting, but not when the price is steep. This breakdown flags five quarterbacks who are currently overvalued based on offensive context, durability concerns, or inflated fantasy football ADP expectations. Whether you're building around safe floor or hunting for ceiling, these are the QBs to think twice about before clicking "draft."
Before your next pick, check the full ADP fantasy football board or build sample rosters using our fantasy football draft software.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP: QB6
Patrick Mahomes still gets the "elite" tag in fantasy, but recent production doesn't support it.
Since Tyreek Hill left, Mahomes has produced like a fringe QB1, not a weekly difference-maker. The 2024 season was supposed to be different with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, rookie Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in the fold. Instead, injuries and inconsistency returned, and Mahomes went back to game-managing.
Kelce is aging. Worthy likely returns to his deep-threat role. Brown is already hurt. The Chiefs are focused on January wins, not regular-season stat padding. Paying QB6 prices assumes a ceiling that hasn't shown up in over a year.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – ADP: QB8
Bo Nix finished 2024 strong, averaging 26.9 fantasy points in Weeks 15-18.
That late-season surge pushed him to QB8 in current ADP. But fantasy drafters may be ignoring Denver's drastic offseason shifts. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey were added to fix the run game. The offensive line is elite. And the defense, already solid, added three high-impact starters.
If Sean Payton gets his way, Denver could become a run-first, defense-heavy team. In that game script, Nix may not get enough volume to hit his ceiling. At QB8, there's more downside risk than upside reward.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – ADP: QB9
Kyler Murray returned healthy in 2024, but his ADP may be built on hope.
Yes, he rushed for 572 yards last season, second-best of his career. But he also missed 17 games from 2021–2023. Assuming durability based on one healthy season is a stretch.
His passing ceiling remains limited: No 4,000-yard seasons, and never more than 26 passing TDs in a year. Without elite rushing or passing volume, you're betting on everything breaking right. That's a dangerous bet at QB10.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – ADP: QB15
Jared Goff's late-season heroics masked deeper concerns.
When the Lions' defense crumbled, Goff was forced to air it out, and he delivered huge fantasy numbers. From Week 10 on, he averaged 28.6 points per game. But earlier in the year, Detroit's game plan was clear: run and play defense. Goff averaged just 19.9 points in that span.
Ben Johnson is now gone, and the interior O-line has been overhauled. Goff thrives in clean pockets, something he may not consistently have. Even outside the top-12, this is a risky ADP for a system-dependent quarterback.
Michael Penix, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: QB22
Even as a late-round dart throw, Michael Penix carries significant downside.
In three NFL appearances, Penix posted a 58 percent completion rate and totaled just 11 rushing yards. While his arm strength is real, accuracy remains a major concern.
Early camp reports suggest his struggles have continued. In a run-heavy offense with a crowded backfield and limited rushing floor, Penix may not even deliver spot-start value. Even at QB22, there are better upside bets to stash.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football Overvalued Players
Quarterback depth is as strong as ever in 2025, which makes drafting players at their ceilings even riskier. Whether it's Mahomes at QB6 or Nix at QB8, fantasy managers should be cautious when the cost doesn't match the situation.
Stay up to date with fantasy football news and NFL depth charts to monitor evolving camp battles and offensive trends. Drafting the right QB is about context—not just talent.
Looking for more in-depth analysis of busts? Watch this:
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