The biggest upset last week was the Packers losing at home to the Panthers. That knocked out quite a few would-be Survivors, as the Packers were the third most popular team.
In my pool, three lost on the Packers. Ten went for the pot-odds play, as we advised, and won with the Chargers. Unfortunately, the Rams, the most popular team on the board, also won. Of the original 451 entrants, 62 remain (13.7 percent).
On to Week 10.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANTHERS | Saints | 29.91% | 225 | 69.2% | 9.20 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 27.65% | 417.5 | 80.7% | 5.34 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cardinals | 13.47% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 3.43 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 12.75% | 437.5 | 81.4% | 2.37 |
| Lions | COMMANDERS | 9.58% | 475 | 82.6% | 1.67 |
| BEARS | Giants | 2.71% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.99 |
| Colts | Falcons* | 2.20% | 250 | 71.4% | 0.63 |
| Ravens | VIKINGS | 0.99% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.34 |
| Browns | JETS | 0.92% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.40 |
| BUCCANEERS | Patriots | 0.39% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.17 |
| CHARGERS | Steelers | 0.30% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.12 |
| Eagles | PACKERS | 0.28% | 129 | 56.3% | 0.12 |
| TEXANS | Jaguars | 0.17% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.08 |
| Rams | 49ERS | 0.11% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* Falcons vs. Colts at Berlin
There is no pot-odds play and this week seems a little trickier than usual. Nearly 60 percent of Survivors split between the Panthers and Broncos. The two biggest favorites, the Bills and Lions, have been used by most Survivors, thus their low popularity. If one of those is available, though, it is the preferred pick.
We won with the Bills in Week 3 and the Lions in Week 4, and so are left with a tough choice. In the end, we'd rather die with the Seahawks, who are actually good, than the Panthers or Bears, both of whom are mediocre.
MY PICKS
Buffalo Bills (at Dolphins)
The Bills came out of their Week 7 bye and destroyed the Panthers before earning a hard-fought victory against the Chiefs last week, i.e., they're playing at a high level and shouldn't be pushed by the Dolphins, even though the game is in Miami and the Dolphins had extra time to prepare, having playing last Thursday. The Dolphins also traded pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips this week, which is good news for Josh Allen. If the Bills are still available, this is a good spot.
Detroit Lions (at Commanders)
This would actually be a good opportunity for a Commanders bounce-back after they got embarrassed last Sunday night, if Jayden Daniels was available. But he's not. With Marcus Mariota at the helm, Terry McLaurin out again and no running game to speak of, how can Washington compete? The Lions also should be in a bad mood after losing a divisional game at home last week. No chance Dan Campbell doesn't have his team ready for this one.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
On paper, the Seahawks should dominate the Cardinals. But Seattle is inconsistent at home, and the Cardinals are usually a challenge as a divisional opponent. Jacoby Brissett, while less dynamic, is a better game manager than Kyler Murray, which could benefit the Cardinals against Seattle's tough defense. But this a big game for the Seahawks from an NFC West perspective and to back up the beat down they laid on the Commanders last Sunday night. It would be somewhat surprising if Seattle let this one slip away.
Carolina Panthers (vs. Saints)
A plurality of Survivors, nearly a third, hope to steal a win this week by taking the Panthers. When was the last time the Panthers were the Survivor pick? Carolina is a much better team than the Saints, who will start rookie QB Tyler Shough for the second time and just traded their downfield threat in Rashid Shaheed, but does it warrant this much confidence? The Panthers' Vegas odds are underwhelming by Survivor standards at 69.2 percent, and Carolina could be in for a letdown after going to Green Bay and shocking the Packers last week. Alas, New Orleans is just that bad.
Chicago Bears (vs. Giants)
The Giants are undermanned on both sides of the ball, and weren't very good to begin with. Chicago is 5-3, beating no one of note (other than perhaps the Cowboys) but losing only to quality teams. The Giants fit that bill. Since it's big Thursday night win against the Eagles in Week 6, New York has allowed more than 32 points in three consecutive games. At home, the Bears could make it four in a row. The one hesitation is Chicago's Vegas odds are so low (relatively speaking). Why does Vegas think this game will be close?
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Denver Broncos (vs. Raiders)
The biggest drawback to taking the Broncos is this is a divisional game on Thursday night. We've seen how those have gone this year. The Seahawks needed a walk-off field goal to beat the Cardinals in Week 4, the severely injured 49ers upset the home Rams in Week 5, the Giants upset the Eagles in Week 6 and the Bengals upset the Steelers in Week 7. This shouldn't be close, but it's not like the Broncos are dominant. Four of their wins have been by a combined 10 points, with each no greater than four points. Why risk it?
