Last week brought the chaos to Survivor for the first time this season. It started Thursday with the Rams and continued to Sunday with the Cardinals and Bills and then Monday with the Chiefs. You could throw the Eagles in there too.
I switched to the Rams after word came down that half of the 49ers' offense was out. While I felt a twinge of unexplained uneasiness doing it, I wasn't kicking myself when the Rams lost — it wasn't dumb to think the 49ers behind Mac Jones would have trouble keeping up with the Rams. And even then, it took an absolute miracle — miracles — for them to win. A fumble at the goal line? A blocked extra point? Are you kidding?
Then Sunday came and the team I passed on for the Rams suffered an even bigger humiliation. The Cardinals picked off a pass in the red zone ... which then turned into a Titans touchdown. That specific sequence — INT --> fumble --> TD by INT-throwing team — had happened only twice in NFL history. Well, now it's a third time. On top of that was the Emari Demercado boneheaded fumble at the goal line. All of which is to say, Rams or Cardinals, I was dead man walking in Week 5.
I wasn't alone. In my pool, 132 were knocked out — 52.2 percent of the remaining players. Of the original 451 entrants, 121 remain (26.8 percent).
On to Week 6.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACKERS | Bengals | 49.2% | 887.5 | 89.9% | 4.98 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 15.3% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.37 |
| Broncos | Jets* | 8.1% | 337.5 | 77.1% | 1.85 |
| STEELERS | Browns | 6.1% | 215 | 68.3% | 1.93 |
| COLTS | Cardinals | 4.9% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.33 |
| Patriots | SAINTS | 4.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.48 |
| RAIDERS | Titans | 2.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.83 |
| Cowboys | PANTHERS | 2.5% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.90 |
| Rams | RAVENS | 2.5% | 375 | 78.9% | 0.52 |
| Chargers | DOLPHINS | 1.8% | 200 | 66.7% | 0.58 |
| COMMANDERS | Bears | 1.3% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.44 |
| Bills | FALCONS | 1.1% | 200 | 66.7% | 0.37 |
| BUCCANEERS | 49ers | 0.2% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.07 |
| Lions | CHIEFS | 0.1% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.03 |
| JAGUARS | Seahawks | 0.0% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.01 |
Home teams in CAPS
*Broncos vs. Jets at London
The Packers are massive favorites this week. But at nearly 90 percent odds per Vegas, are they popular enough to fade in a pot-odds play?
Let's compare them to the Rams, who have the second-highest Vegas odds and are only 2.5 percent owned this week.
A Packers win/Rams loss is .90 (Packers Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .21 (Rams Vegas Odds of losing), which is 18.9 percent. A Rams win/Packers loss is .79*.10 = 7.9 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 18.9/7.9 = 2.39.
For the reward ratio, we'll use a hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Packers win/Rams lose, three people (2.5 rounded) are out on the Rams plus another 13 non-Rams owners projected to lose, for 16 total losers. 100-16 = 84 remaining owners, $1,000/84 = $11.90.
If the Rams win/Packers lose, it's 49 out on the Packers, plus 13 more, for 62 total losers. 100-62 = 38, $1,000/38 = $26.31.
The means the reward ratio is $26.31/$11.90 = 2.21.
So, the reward does not outweigh the risk in not picking the Packers. (And, remember, every other team has lower Vegas odds than the Rams and most have higher ownership, so their risk/reward is going to be worse than the Rams vis-á-vis the Packers.)
But it is close.
What does the Packers' ownership need to be to break even with the Rams?
Well, $11.90 * 2.39 = $28.44. And $1,000/$28 is roughly 36. That means to get that $28 in equity, enough people would have to be on the Packers that only 36 remained if they lost. With 11 expected to lose on the other teams, you'd need 53 (53 percent) on the Packers just to break even.
So, even though the crowd is heavily on the Packers this week, it's still short of what it would need for a pot-odds play because Green Bay is such a big favorite.
That said, ownership numbers can be noisy (especially in a large-scale survey like Yahoo), so if you think your pool will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 53 percent on the Packers, then go ahead and fade them.
For everyone else, if you haven't used the Packers, now is the time.
Picks are in order of preference.
My Picks
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are coming off a bye to face a Bengals team that is circling the drain. Cincinnati traded for Joe Flacco this week to Band-Aid its quarterback spot, and while he's probably an upgrade over the inept Jake Browning, it's not by much — Flacco himself had gotten benched in Cleveland. On his sixth team, the 40-year-old Flacco probably could figure out the Bengals' playbook sufficiently enough to start this week. And he's familiar with the Packers, having beaten them in Week 3. But the Bengals didn't trade for a new offensive line, and Flacco will be under as much pressure as Browning faced.
Trivia Question: Who was the last quarterback to beat the same opponent twice in a season with different teams? Put your guess in the comments. I'll reveal the answer later Wednesday. (This will be a good litmus test to see how many readers are still Surviving and reading.)
Los Angeles Rams
It's a little surprising the Rams aren't more popular as the second-biggest favorite on the board. Los Angeles played last Thursday, giving it extra time to gameplan for a Ravens team that just got blown out by ... (checks notes) ... the Texans. The problem for the Ravens is injuries. Only 38 percent of defensive snaps last week were played by Week 1 starters. And with a Week 7 bye, Baltimore is not likely to rush back any of them — not to mention Lamar Jackson, who missed last week as well. Hang on, you say, wasn't that the argument for the Rams last week? That they faced a 49ers team ravaged by injuries? How'd that go? Point taken. But it likely will take Roquan Smith, Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey and Chidobe Awuzie all returning for Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua not to have big days. And if Lamar is out, the Ravens' offense will have as much firepower as it had last week when it scored 10 points.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles still haven't fully figured out their passing game, but that won't matter if they run all over a Giants rush defense that is among the league's worst. A short week won't help Jaxson Dart either against a formidable Philly defense.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are coming off a big comeback win, but this is at least as much about this week's opponent, the Jets. Justin Fields was sacked five times and took nine hits against the Cowboys last week; what will Denver's defense do to him? The game is in London, so maybe that's a factor, but it's hard to see how that helps the Jets, who have allowed the second-most points in the league this season (only the Ravens have allowed more).
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts, who just got done pounding the Raiders, are at home against a Cardinals squad that is likely still trying to figure out how it lost last week. The Cardinals aren't that good to begin with, and a loss like the one they suffered can crater teams. Indy has only one quality win this season (against the Broncos, by a point), but they get credit for dominating the Dolphins, Titans and Raiders, not merely scraping by inferior opponents. They should at least scrape by the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Steelers
This isn't fool-proof, but it seems like a good matchup for the Steelers against the hapless Browns. Browns QB Dillon Gabriel looks like an NFL backup. The Steelers are coming off a bye, giving them an extra week to prepare for Gabriel and whatever other threats the Browns might muster. Maybe it's closer than the 5.5-point spread, but the Steelers should take care of business.
NOTABLE OMISSION
Las Vegas Raiders
Only 2.5 percent of Survivors are on the Raiders this week, but why is it even that high? The Titans aren't good, but they're coming off a miracle win at Arizona, so at least they have plenty of good vibes running through the organization this week. The Raiders, on the other hand, just got pasted by the Colts for their fourth consecutive loss (only one of which was close) and Geno Smith looks beyond washed.
