Last week caused some Survivor pain, largely because the Falcons came up empty against the seemingly hapless Dolphins.
The Dolphins stacked the box to stop Bijan Robinson and dared Kirk Cousins to beat them without Drake London. He did not beat them.
Now, the Falcons were third on our list last week, but after Michael Penix was ruled out, a couple readers (chrisbourn and spkrmkr12 — thanks for reading, guys) inquired about Atlanta's prospects with Cousins at the helm. We still liked the Falcons chances, but without Penix and London they were too risky for Survivor. And Penix or no Penix, the clear choice last week was the Colts. Hopefully, everybody went that route.
In my pool, 24 lost on the Falcons (and nine on the Bengals). Of the original 451 entrants, 66 remain (14.6 percent).
On to Week 9.
Those unfamiliar with our strategy should start by reading here and here, or for a more concise explanation, read Week 1's article.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Saints | 54.9% | 825 | 89.2% | 5.93 |
| Chargers | TITANS | 22.4% | 475 | 82.6% | 3.89 |
| PACKERS | Panthers | 12.1% | 750 | 88.2% | 1.43 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 3.5% | 417.5 | 80.7% | 0.68 |
| Ravens | DOLPHINS | 3.3% | 400 | 80.0% | 0.65 |
| PATRIOTS | Falcons | 1.4% | 257.5 | 72.0% | 0.40 |
| Jaguars | RAIDERS | 1.0% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.37 |
| COWBOYS | Cardinals | 0.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.39 |
| 49ers | GIANTS | 0.5% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.22 |
| Broncos | TEXANS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.13 |
| Seahawks | COMMANDERS | 0.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.10 |
| Colts | STEELERS | 0.1% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.04 |
| Bears | BENGALS | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.03 |
| CHIEFS | Bills | 0.01% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.00 |
This is an interesting week. The Rams are the most popular team by a significant margin, but their Vegas odds aren't that much better than the Packers or Chargers. As such, we have a pot-odds situation on our hands.
Let's compare the Rams and Chargers.
A Rams win/Chargers loss is .89 (Rams Vegas Odds of winning) multiplied by .17 (Chargers Vegas Odds of losing), which is 15.1 percent. A Chargers win/Rams loss is .83*.11 = 9.1 percent.
That means the risk ratio is 15.1/9.1 = 1.66
For the reward ratio, we'll use our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool. If the Rams win/Chargers lose, 22 are out on the Chargers plus another 5 non-Chargers owners projected to lose, for 27 total losers. 100-27 = 73 remaining owners, $1,000/73 = $13.70
If the Chargers win/Rams lose, it's 55 out on the Rams plus five more, for 60 total losers. 100-60 = 40 remaining owners, $1,000/40 = $25
The means the reward ratio is $25/$13.70 = 1.82
So, the reward outweighs the risk of taking the Chargers instead of the Rams.
Taking the Packers yields an even bigger reward-risk advantage because their odds are virtually the same as the Rams but their popularity is more than 40 percentage points lower.
If we do the math for Packers-Rams, the risk ratio is 1.10 while the reward ratio is 2.13! Now, that is a significant pot-odds play. Unfortunately, many Survivors used the Packers in Week 6 (as we did). Indeed, that's why their popularity is so low this week.
If the Packers are available, that is definitely the play. If not, than pivot to the Chargers, who still offer a pot-odds advantage vis-a-vis the Rams.
Picks are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Green Bay Packers (vs. Panthers)
The Panthers were blown out by the Bills last week without the injured Bryce Young. It's uncertain if Young will play, but high-ankle sprains typically take multiple weeks to heal. If he plays, he's not likely to be effective (especially with Micah Parsons chasing him all day). If he doesn't play, it's more of the unimpressive Andy Dalton. The Packers at Lambeau look pretty tough against a mediocre, at best, Panthers squad with below-average quarterbacking. Take the Packers and root hard for the Rams to lose.
Los Angeles Chargers (at Titans)
The Titans aren't just bad, they're uncompetitive. They've been blown out in every loss, and in their only win they trailed the Cardinals 21-6 in the fourth quarter before the mischievous football gods got bored. The Chargers have a top-5 offense and defensively are top 10 in sacks and interceptions, which doesn't bode well for rookie QB Cam Ward, who has taken a league-high 34 sacks, has turned the ball over in every game and has more interceptions than TD passes. Los Angeles has extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday and can't afford to overlook the Titans if it wants to keep pace in the AFC West.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Saints)
The Rams are two-touchdown favorites against the Saints this week. The Saints have totaled three touchdowns in the last three games, and, consequently, now will turn to rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback. A second-round pick, Shough (pronounced "shuck") was the third QB selected in this year's draft. He has a strong arm but accuracy was a problem at Louisville last season. After a seven-year college career, he is old for a rookie at 26. Perhaps that maturity will help keep him calm under pressure against a Rams defense that is fifth in the league in QB pressure percentage. Not likely. Traveling halfway across the country to face a Rams team coming off a bye is not a great setup for any rookie QB, especially one with so few offensive weapons.
New England Patriots (vs. Falcons)
The Patriots have faced a light schedule, but they've thumped teams, beating the Panthers, Titans and Browns by an average of 22 points. The Falcons stumbled badly last week with Kirk Cousins at quarterback (see above). Michael Penix hopes to return this week, but likely will be limited even if he does play. Drake London is in the same boat. This probably won't be a blowout, but the Pats should win at home.
Detroit Lions (vs. Vikings)
The Lions thoroughly handled the beat-up Buccaneers two weeks ago and now, fresh off a bye, face J.J. McCarthy in his third career start for the Vikings. McCarthy missed the last five games with an ankle injury and only seems to be returning now because backup Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending injury. Perhaps being a division matchup makes it a little tighter than expected, but the rested Lions look tough to beat at home.
Baltimore Ravens (at Dolphins)
The Ravens are getting healthier and this week hope to have Lamar Jackson back. On paper at full strength, they should have little trouble with the Dolphins. But this is a Thursday game, so who knows? Fullback Patrick Ricard's return is the best news Derrick Henry has had in a while and should make all things offense work better for Baltimore. Ricard played 14 snaps in his season debut last week and likely will be on the field much more this week. The Dolphins are coming off a big upset of the Falcons, but who trusts the Dolphins?
NOTABLE OMISSION:
None. There could be a few upsets among the remaining games, but none would be "notable" in a Survivor context. Just three percent of Survivors are on the bottom eight teams in the chart above. (Don't know why anyone would be on any of those teams this week — surely one of the top teams is available.)
