Last week was largely uneventful with only the Packers, Jets, Browns and Colts taking out about eight percent of entrants combined.
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Falcons | 48.40% | 562.5 | 84.91 | 7.31 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 38.10% | 450 | 81.82 | 6.93 |
| Ravens | BENGALS | 7.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 1.33 |
| PACKERS | Panthers | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.52 |
| Chiefs | TITANS | 1.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.47 |
| BUCCANEERS | Cardinals | 1.30% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.43 |
| Giants | JETS | 0.80% | 120 | 54.55 | 0.36 |
| Rams | STEELERS | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 0.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.09 |
| BROWNS | Bills | 0.10% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.04 |
| BEARS | Lions | 0.10% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It looks fairly obvious the Ravens are the play with only seven percent ownership and nearly an 81 percent chance to win. If you've used them and have to choose between the higher-owned teams, I'd take the Saints over the Colts, despite slightly higher ownership.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
They're on the road, but the Bengals are starting a rookie in his first game, don't play defense and can't run the ball. I give the Ravens an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are familiar with the Saints, and their offense has a puncher's chance, but the Saints defense is one of the league's best, and Drew Brees didn't look rusty at all in his return two weeks ago. I
Last week was largely uneventful with only the Packers, Jets, Browns and Colts taking out about eight percent of entrants combined.
Let's take a look at Week 10:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Falcons | 48.40% | 562.5 | 84.91 | 7.31 |
| COLTS | Dolphins | 38.10% | 450 | 81.82 | 6.93 |
| Ravens | BENGALS | 7.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 1.33 |
| PACKERS | Panthers | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.52 |
| Chiefs | TITANS | 1.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.47 |
| BUCCANEERS | Cardinals | 1.30% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.43 |
| Giants | JETS | 0.80% | 120 | 54.55 | 0.36 |
| Rams | STEELERS | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| 49ERS | Seahawks | 0.30% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.09 |
| BROWNS | Bills | 0.10% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.04 |
| BEARS | Lions | 0.10% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
It looks fairly obvious the Ravens are the play with only seven percent ownership and nearly an 81 percent chance to win. If you've used them and have to choose between the higher-owned teams, I'd take the Saints over the Colts, despite slightly higher ownership.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
They're on the road, but the Bengals are starting a rookie in his first game, don't play defense and can't run the ball. I give the Ravens an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are familiar with the Saints, and their offense has a puncher's chance, but the Saints defense is one of the league's best, and Drew Brees didn't look rusty at all in his return two weeks ago. I give the Saints an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. Indianapolis Colts
I'd feel a lot better about this if Jacoby Brissett can go, but even with Brian Hoyer, the Colts should be able to manhandle a weak Dolphins defense at home. I give the Colts an 80 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Packers looked lost last week, but they're typically better at home, and Davante Adams should play better in his second game back, giving them a much-needed outside weapon. I give the Packers a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers might be the best team in the NFL, but Russell Wilson is so dangerous, I'm only ranking them fifth. I give the 49ers a 69 percent chance to win this game.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
If Patrick Mahomes is back, I see the Chiefs rolling, especially given the way their defense has played of late. I give the Chiefs a 67 percent chance to win this game.
7. Chicago Bears
The Mitch Trubisky experiment is a failure, but I love their defense at home against a one-dimensional Lions team that can't run or stop the run. I give the Bears a 64 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Buccaneers, Rams, Giants, Browns
The Cardinals showed up against the 49ers, are coming off 10 days rest and face a Bucs team that can't stop the pass and turns it over a ton, the Rams are on the road with a QB who plays substantially worse away from home and facing a good defense, the Giants have a horrible defense and offensive line and the Browns can't be trusted against anyone with a pulse.
