This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week, only the Texans went down among the big favorites, taking roughly 26 percent of pools with them. Let's take a look at Week 15.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.70% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 2.92 |
| RAVENS | Jets | 15.60% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.84 |
| Patriots | BENGALS | 14.60% | 400 | 80.00 | 2.92 |
| 49ERS | Falcons | 13.20% | 525 | 84.00 | 2.11 |
| SAINTS | Colts | 10.70% | 375 | 78.95 | 2.25 |
| Seahawks | PANTHERS | 8.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.35 |
| RAIDERS | Jaguars | 6.30% | 260 | 72.22 | 1.75 |
| Buccaneers | LIONS | 4.30% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.59 |
| GIANTS | Dolphins | 2.80% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.04 |
| TITANS | Texans | 1.90% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.79 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 1.60% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.53 |
| Rams | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.52 |
| Eagles | REDSKINS | 1.00% | 192.5 | 65.81 | 0.34 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual this time of year, you'll have to go through the remaining entries in your pools individually to get a decent estimate of ownership levels -- the percent-taken numbers here are awfully noisy by Week 15.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The short week adds some volatility, and it's not ideal that Lamar Jackson is dealing with a quad injury. But the Ravens at home should throttle the Jets. I give the Ravens a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints lost a tough game last week, but the Colts are banged up and essentially eliminated from the playoffs. I expect New Orleans to bounce back easily at home. I give them
Last week, only the Texans went down among the big favorites, taking roughly 26 percent of pools with them. Let's take a look at Week 15.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.70% | 437.5 | 81.40 | 2.92 |
| RAVENS | Jets | 15.60% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.84 |
| Patriots | BENGALS | 14.60% | 400 | 80.00 | 2.92 |
| 49ERS | Falcons | 13.20% | 525 | 84.00 | 2.11 |
| SAINTS | Colts | 10.70% | 375 | 78.95 | 2.25 |
| Seahawks | PANTHERS | 8.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 2.35 |
| RAIDERS | Jaguars | 6.30% | 260 | 72.22 | 1.75 |
| Buccaneers | LIONS | 4.30% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.59 |
| GIANTS | Dolphins | 2.80% | 170 | 62.96 | 1.04 |
| TITANS | Texans | 1.90% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.79 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 1.60% | 200 | 66.67 | 0.53 |
| Rams | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.52 |
| Eagles | REDSKINS | 1.00% | 192.5 | 65.81 | 0.34 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual this time of year, you'll have to go through the remaining entries in your pools individually to get a decent estimate of ownership levels -- the percent-taken numbers here are awfully noisy by Week 15.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The short week adds some volatility, and it's not ideal that Lamar Jackson is dealing with a quad injury. But the Ravens at home should throttle the Jets. I give the Ravens a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints lost a tough game last week, but the Colts are banged up and essentially eliminated from the playoffs. I expect New Orleans to bounce back easily at home. I give them an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. San Francisco 49ers
This is a letdown spot after the 49ers had three massive games against the Packers, Ravens and Saints, but it's at home, and the disparity in teams is large. I give the 49ers an 84 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
Now that they have the Bengals signs, they should roll easily. Seriously though, the Patriots are bad on the offensive side of the ball, but I trust they'll figure out enough to handle the Bengals, and their defense might outscore Cincy's offense by itself. I give the Patriots a 78 percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs didn't look great, but they won at Foxborough, something no one else has been able to do. The Broncos seem to have new life with Drew Lock under center, but he'll have a hard time keeping up with Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead. I give the Chiefs a 77 percent chance to win this game.
6. Seattle Seahawks
They got destroyed by the Rams last Sunday night, but the Panthers defense looks done, and I expect the Seahawks to get right against it. I give the Seahawks a 76 percent chance to win this game.
7. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have been awful the last three games, but so have the Jaguars, and this is the last game at the Oakland Coliseum, so I'd expect the Raiders to be especially up for it. I give the Raiders a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
I don't trust them at all, especially after the Alshon Jeffery injury makes them even thinner at receiver, but they catch a break in facing Dwayne Haskins. I give the Eagles a 60 percent chance to win this game.
9. Los Angeles Rams
The book has this as roughly a 50/50 game, but I believe in the Rams after they turned things around the last two games, and the Cowboys are on the ropes. I give the Rams a 58 percent chance to win this game.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They're on the road, but the Lions are down to their third string QB, and the Bucs' defense has played better of late. I give the Buccaneers a 59 percent chance to win this game.
11. Green Bay Packers
The Bears are playing better offensively, and the Packers have not impressed of late, but the Packers are at home, and Aaron Rodgers is still better than Mitchell Trubisky by a wide margin. I give the Packers a 58 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings
The Giants with Eli Manning are terrible, while the Dolphins are still playing hard, the Titans have a gimpy Derrick Henry and facing Deshaun Watson, the Browns on the road are a bridge too far, the Steelers face a tough Bills team and the Vikings travel to the west coast to take on a finally healthy Chargers squad.
