This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was supposed to be so tough, but thanks to Tom Coughlin's gift to the Cowboys virtually everyone made it through.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 46.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 8.40 |
| Ravens | RAIDERS | 13.80% | 250 | 71.43% | 3.94 |
| Dolphins | JAGUARS | 12.40% | 240 | 70.59% | 3.65 |
| COLTS | Jets | 8.50% | 290 | 74.36% | 2.18 |
| STEELERS | 49ers | 7.10% | 240 | 70.59% | 2.09 |
| Rams | REDSKINS | 3.70% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.40 |
| Titans | BROWNS | 1.80% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.90 |
| PANTHERS | Texans | 1.20% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.46 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.25 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Here's where it gets interesting. The Saints are easily the biggest favorite on the board, but they're also significantly owned at 46 percent. Should they lose, roughly half your pool would be cleared out. Is it worth the added risk in looking elsewhere?
Let's use our standard $10-entry, 100-person pool example. If you take the Saints, the other entries have an expected loss total (note the fifth column I added to the table) of about 16 (including the four percent of pools not using the top-nine teams.) That means there would be 84 people remaining. When you started you had $10 in pool equity ($1000 total, divided by 100 people), and after Week 2 (should the Saints win), you'd have $1000/84 = $11.90 in equity.
If you fade the Saints for say the Ravens,
Last week was supposed to be so tough, but thanks to Tom Coughlin's gift to the Cowboys virtually everyone made it through.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 46.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 8.40 |
| Ravens | RAIDERS | 13.80% | 250 | 71.43% | 3.94 |
| Dolphins | JAGUARS | 12.40% | 240 | 70.59% | 3.65 |
| COLTS | Jets | 8.50% | 290 | 74.36% | 2.18 |
| STEELERS | 49ers | 7.10% | 240 | 70.59% | 2.09 |
| Rams | REDSKINS | 3.70% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.40 |
| Titans | BROWNS | 1.80% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.90 |
| PANTHERS | Texans | 1.20% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.46 |
| EAGLES | Cowboys | 0.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.25 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Here's where it gets interesting. The Saints are easily the biggest favorite on the board, but they're also significantly owned at 46 percent. Should they lose, roughly half your pool would be cleared out. Is it worth the added risk in looking elsewhere?
Let's use our standard $10-entry, 100-person pool example. If you take the Saints, the other entries have an expected loss total (note the fifth column I added to the table) of about 16 (including the four percent of pools not using the top-nine teams.) That means there would be 84 people remaining. When you started you had $10 in pool equity ($1000 total, divided by 100 people), and after Week 2 (should the Saints win), you'd have $1000/84 = $11.90 in equity.
If you fade the Saints for say the Ravens, Dolphins or Colts, what then? Let's take the Colts since they'd be Vegas' pick. If the Colts win, and the Saints lose, 46 people would go down with the Saints and another 14 with other non-Saints teams. That's 60 percent of your pool. Your equity would therefore be $1,000/40 = $25.
The ratio of $25 to $11.90 is 2.1. So the payout is significant. What about the risk?
The odds of a Colts win/Saints loss are 74% * 18% = 13.32%. The odds of a Saints win/Colts loss are 82% * 26% = 21.32%. The ratio of 21.32 to 13.32 = 1.6.
So - at least according to the polling data here, the reward for taking the Colts outweighs the added risk. If you don't love the Colts and prefer the Ravens or Dolphins (slightly more owned, slightly less chance to win), it gets very close.
Bottom line, I'll list my picks below, but if you're in multiple pools, or if you have a few entries in a single pool, you might want to spread it out this week.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
Make no mistake, the Saints are the best pick if your aim is simply to make it until next week. I'm taking the Ravens because I want to win my pool, i.e., survive while others perish, not just survive. If the Saints do go down, you'll more than double your equity if the Ravens win. I'm willing to risk at least a couple entries on that proposition. As for the game itself, the Ravens should handle an awful Raiders team even though the game is on the road. The one concern is Baltimore's lack of passing-game weapons, but I expect their defense to dominate, even without Terrell Suggs. I give the Ravens a 74 percent chance to win this game.
1. Indianapolis Colts
This is also a "pot odds" play. Andrew Luck has to play better than he did in Buffalo, but I think he will at home. The Jets are tough, but I don't see them keeping pace in Indy. I give the Colts a 73-percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
If you just want to make it through to next week, the Saints are the easy call at home against a Tampa team that got blown out by the Titans in their own building. Drew Brees always plays better at home, and Tampa's defense got lit up by a rookie making his first start. I give the Saints an 83 percent chance to win this game.
4. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins should throttle the Jaguars, especially if Blake Bortles keeps giving games away. But it's a road game, and Miami looked pretty shaky at Washington last week. I give the Dolphins a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Many would put this game in the "notable omissions", but without the threat of Dez Bryant, I think the Eagles will beat the Cowboys fairly easily. Dallas is not strong defensively, and the Eagles can sell out to stop the run. I give the Eagles a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Pittsburgh Steelers: You never want to read too much into one week, but the 49ers defense looked pretty good, and Carlos Hyde seemed like one of the best backs in the league. The Steelers will move the ball, but can they stop anyone? I'd rather that question be answered before I put my survivor season on the line.
St. Louis Rams:
It was a nice home win against Seattle, but they always play the Seahawks tough. I need to see more from Nick Foles before I trust the Rams on the road.
