This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Cadence Bank Houston Open Betting Preview
Two events remain on the fall portion of the PGA Tour schedule, and the first of those two tournaments will be the Cadence Back Houston Open.
This event has struggled to find an identity in recent years, as it has seen numerous sponsors, has been contested on several courses and has even hopped around the schedule from just before the Masters to its current spot in November. This year's edition will feature world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler -- the tournament favorite at 11-2 odds -- as well as three other golfers who check in top-20 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, Jason Kokrak -- at 30-1 -- defeated Scheffler and Kevin Tway by two shots and picked up his third PGA Tour victory.
Hosting for a third straight year, Memorial Park Golf Course plays as a par-70 at approximately 7,400 yards. It offers five par-3s as well as three par-5s. Redesigned by Tom Doak in 2018, the track has few bunkers and plays long, with half the par-4s checking in over 485 yards. That makes it difficult for players to shoot low, which we have seen in the winning scores of 10- and 13-under par. No one style of play has a big advantage, though I would give a slight bump to longer drivers of the ball given the lengthy par-4s.
I will be targeting players who avoid bogeys and play well from tee to green, as players will need all facets of their game this week. That includes the short game, as it will be a challenge to regularly hit greens in regulation.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Tuesday.
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Tearing it up from Tee to Green
The following five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Tony Finau: 1.89
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.59
- Russell Henley: 1.29
- Jason Day: 1.11
- Si Woo Kim: 0.87
Finau -- tied for the third favorite at 16-1 -- is seemingly in the best form in this department, but it should be noted that these numbers don't include last week's results, as no Strokes Gained data was recorded in Mayakoba, where Finau missed the cut. He likely just needed to shake off some rust, as he has only played in the Presidents Cup this fall. In his two stops in Houston, he missed the cut and finished T24. Someone who has been more active in recent week is Day, who is riding a streak three straight top-25 finishes for the first time in over two years. I'm not sure he's shown enough to bet on him to win at 25-1, but his overall improvement -- especially with his irons -- makes him a player to confidently lock into DFS lineups.
Cadence Bank Houston Open Bets: Outright Picks
Hideki Matsuyama (22-1)
I'm looking to go back-to-back after pegging Henley at 60-1 last week, and I think that this is a good place to start. Matsuyama has certainly had his ups and downs this year, but on an outright bet we're only focused on his ceiling. With a T2 in his lone trip here two years ago, Matsuyama is a prime target among the top tier.
Sahith Theegala (40-1)
Theegala was close to winning a couple times during his rookie season, notching a pair of top-3 finishes. He has been knocking on the door again this fall, starting his sophomore campaign with two top-10 finishes in four starts. His results tend to be hit-or-miss, but his upside makes him a good bet at this number. He finished top-10 in SG: Approach at this event last year.
Emiliano Grillo (50-1)
I'm going to continue betting on Grillo, who is bound to break through eventually. He's been oh-so-close of late, recording four top-5 finishes in his last 11 starts. Grillo strikes the ball as well as anyone, and if he gets things going close to the pins he could easily wind up in the winner's circle. The value here is too much to pass up, particularly with Grillo falling outside the top 15 choices on the board.
Cadence Bank Houston Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Adam Long (15-2)
Long's odds are generous, and he's a golfer to go after if you like the course history angle, as he finished tied for 11th in both his appearances at Memorial Park. Those results jump off the page for someone who recorded just eight top-15s over the last two seasons. Over eight rounds at this venue he's gaining a whopping 1.05 shots on approach per round.
Mark Hubbard (9-1)
Hubbard has missed the cut two weeks in a row, but with that comes value, and for what it's worth he missed the weekend by one stroke in both instances. Bogey avoidance will be important at Memorial Park, and Hubbard was fifth best on Tour in that category last season.
Ben Griffin (11-1)
Griffin has had a stellar 2022 thus far, with three runner-up finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour and two top-5s in seven PGA Tour starts. Still, he isn't getting any respect from the oddsmakers. Griffin has been dialed in with his irons, gaining 0.81 shots on approach over 10 measured rounds.
Cadence Bank Houston Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sebastian Munoz (-110) over Mackenzie Hughes
I'm surprised to see this matchup as a toss-up because I view Munoz as the much better golfer of the two. Consistency is key in these types of bets, and Munoz made 72 percent of his cuts last season compared to just 59 percent for Hughes. While Hughes does have a great short game, Munoz is passable in that area and is the far superior ball striker.
Beau Hossler (+100) over Harris English
I like Hossler as an underdog in his home state against English, who is still finding his form after missing four months following hip surgery. In 12 starts since returning to action, he has recorded only a pair of top-25s and has missed the weekend five times. Hossler has played well this fall and is one of the best putters on Tour.
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